$500 PS3 a Possibility

gekko · 06-21-2004, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Sony sticker shock: $500 PlayStation 3, $249 PSP are possibilities
Revenues, sales, even price tags are on the rise as analysts address the upcoming transition to next-gen machines.

In a year-end report that puts Leo Tolstoy to shame, industry analysts Michael Pachter and Edward Woo of Wedbush Morgan Securities presented the industry today with a 144-page tome of charts, theories, prognostication, and predictions. Unlike Tolstoy, however, their book has a happy ending.

Titled: The Definition of Insanity: Why The Next Console Cycle Will Start Off With A Whimper, the analysts present an "in-depth look at interactive entertainment software." And while many of the report's data points were revealed in May, during a Pachter-hosted E3 Conference Program luncheon, most of the data is, in fact, new.

Probably the most exotic of the report's predictions was a reference to Sony's PlayStation 2 update. The report suggests Sony is considering adding PSX and TiVo-like functionality to the PlayStation 3. And if it does, the sticker price on the unit could climb as high as $500. The report states: "We expect Sony to introduce its next console with more functionality than its current console. We base this conclusion on the introduction of the PSX, planned for late this year. The PSX will include a Digital Video Recorder (similar to TiVo) functionality; broadband Internet accessibility; wireless LAN functionality; and DVD read-write functionality. These features add approximately $500 per unit to the cost of production, resulting in an expected launch price of around $700. By late 2006, we expect the cost to include these features to decline to around $250, but speculate that the next generation console, should it include these features, could debut at $500. At this level, we believe that many consumers will be alienated."

Other key findings include an industry-wide growth rate (of revenues) of 10 percent per year through 2010 and a growth rate of 14.5 percent in revenues for console and handheld software in the US for the next three to four years.

The report also suggests US publishers will begin to see a significant increase in sales of game software in Japan, and that software sales will surpass domestic music sales (in revenues) over the next two years. Of note on the hardware front, the analysts expect that due to increasing multimedia functionality (DVD playback, high-def capabilities, and Web access) that the percentage of households that own at least one console will climb from 38 percent seen during the 32-/64-bit cycle to 52 percent during the ongoing 128-bit cycle.

On the PC front, the report isolates three titles that will act as key market movers: Doom 3, The Sims 2, and Half-Life 2, and that PC sales overall will be driven to "near record levels."

As well, the Wedbush analysts check in with their estimate of the PSP launch price, pegging the hardware to sell at $249.99 and software to retail for around $30.

Ultimately, it will be female gamers, the increased spending power of "tween" gamers (8-to-14 year olds), and aging but committed gamers introduced to interactive entertainment on the Atari 2600, for example, that will fuel the continued and dramatic growth of the industry.

The report's summary closes with the following brave prediction: "We expect interactive entertainment to be the fastest growing entertainment sector over the next five to 10 years. We forecast the interactive entertainment industry to grow US software sales by approximately 11.4 percent per year over the next three years. We project book and music sales to grow less than 5 percent per year over the next three years and we believe that box-office movie receipts will grow in the 2-4 percent range over the same time period. Using our projected growth rates, we forecast that the US interactive entertainment industry in 2004 will continue to be larger than these competing entertainment sectors (with the exception of the music industry which we believe will be surpassed over the next three years), becoming the largest of these major entertainment sectors within the US."

By Curt Feldman -- GameSpot
POSTED: 06/21/04 04:52 PM PST

Why has Microsoft had the only good news today about their next console?

GameMaster · 06-21-2004, 08:30 PM

And with that being said, Sony's reign as console King was lost. And it became extinct. And Nintendo made it's valiant return. And that, is the story of The Return of the King.

Joeiss · 06-21-2004, 08:31 PM

Is it just me, or are all of GameMaster's post pointless?

GameMaster · 06-21-2004, 08:35 PM

I expressively conveyed my opinion on Sony's price choice by telling a short, imaginative story.

Is it me, or are all of Joeiss' posts rhetorical attacks?

Null · 06-21-2004, 10:57 PM

well if going by every bit of news that comes out. then its said that ps3 will be 10 times more powerful then both xbox2 and n5.

so if you believe that, then the price you can also believe.

However, i hightly doubt both thoes, i THINK PS3 will come out at $349

But then again, it was being said that microsoft will have a cheap model, and then a $500 model with all the hard drive and other stuff built in, kinda a PC/xbox cross platform model.

so i can hardly say microsoft is the one with the good news. its all mostly rumors and speculation anywho. believe what you want, dismiss what you will, only things we can trust are the facts when they come out much futher down the road.

The Germanator · 06-21-2004, 10:59 PM

Gamemaster's posts are actually something I look forward to. More often than not they will give me a nice chuckle.

What are we without a nice chuckle here and there? Not very happy, chuckless people, that's what.

Anyway, $500...That's a lot for a system...and $250 is a lot for a portable...I wouldn't even consider buying either at launch with that kind of tag on there. Maybe three years in when there was a price drop to a still high $200...

Null · 06-21-2004, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Germanator

Gamemaster's posts are actually something I look forward to. More often than not they will give me a nice chuckle.

What are we without a nice chuckle here and there? Not very happy, chuckless people, that's what.

Anyway, $500...That's a lot for a system...and $250 is a lot for a portable...I wouldn't even consider buying either at launch with that kind of tag on there. Maybe three years in when there was a price drop to a still high $200...

actually, as of right now the 250 for PSP would be decent for them. considering the DS price is still rumored at 199. 50 more for a handheld +more doesnt seem so bad.

however when you look at it like i do that the DS would be way way over priced at that. then it throws things outta wack

as long as they keep it competitive with the others then its not going to hurt them as much.

if every console is is the 400 to 500 price range then it may hurt the industry as a whole, but not so much sony's hold on it.

but that price wont happen anyway for a nexgen console so it dont matter

Jonbo298 · 06-22-2004, 02:35 AM

If this is true, then the market is gonna have 2 3DO's for the first 6 months to a year

But I think there will be 2 variations. A version that plays games and dvd movies like PS2 does and one that does all that extra flashy stuff that shoves the price through the roof.

I don't care what you all think, but the future of gaming is being ruined by Sony and MS thinking we need these entertainment boxes. I personally don't prefer them. I like having seperate devices because then I know the company that made it took time to make that product, not shove it in with other things. Call me a Nintendo fanboy, say I'm biased, I dont care. Thats what I think the market is heading towards and its a bleak outlook for me.

Typhoid · 06-22-2004, 02:41 AM

I dont know how much $500 american is in canadian money, but all i know is that when the PS2 came out it was $700 cdn for a while. But now its $199 cdn, and comes with a game and adapter.

tarakan69 · 06-22-2004, 04:16 AM

Ken Kuturagi has stated that Sony will never launch a home system priced above $299.

So end of discussion.

Same "ANALysts" that predicted PS2 would be 500+ because it could play DVDs.

Joeiss · 06-22-2004, 07:57 AM

I really don't think the PS2 was $700 alone in Canada... Maybe in a bundle with a controller and a couple games....

bobcat · 06-22-2004, 08:02 AM

For a second I was gonna say "that's a bargain". Then I realised it was US price.

Ace195 · 06-22-2004, 10:56 AM

Hrm, Why do they add things like TiVo on there ? I mean that just raises the price more and it isn't needed. If I want a video capture system I'll add a vid capture card. Argh, stupid gaming consoles. Jeff you should buy all of them and let me play (Jeff = Hero2)

Crash · 06-22-2004, 11:15 AM

industry analysts are f-ing retards. they dont know their @$$ from a hole in the ground. I remember last year when they said the top selling games of the holiday season were going to be jimmy neutron and harry potter.

i think the ps2 would launch at 349.99, and i'm sure the new gamecube will debut at 249.99

DarkMaster · 06-22-2004, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonbo298

I don't care what you all think, but the future of gaming is being ruined by Sony and MS thinking we need these entertainment boxes. I personally don't prefer them. I like having seperate devices because then I know the company that made it took time to make that product, not shove it in with other things. Call me a Nintendo fanboy, say I'm biased, I dont care. Thats what I think the market is heading towards and its a bleak outlook for me.

How are they ruining gaming by adding different devices to their consoles? Being able to play dvd movies on my ps2 doesn't change the quality of the games. Both consoles use dvds for their games, adding dvd movie playback is not a big deal.