Sony Motion Controller

[manasecret]

Originally Posted by Xantar

Keep in mind here that Sony says they will be launching the PS4 five years from now.

This is a question that I think affects the debate.

When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?

I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.

I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).

[BreakABone]

Originally Posted by manasecret

This is a question that I think affects the debate.

When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?

I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.

I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).

I don't want to talk Natal too much, because we haven't really seen working software yet, but if what I'm hearing is true, its nothing more than an attempt to capture the casual audience.

The simple fact is both of these devices are simple stop gaps to prolong the normal duration of this generation. I mean if you think about it, the 360 would be 5 this year and that's generally when a new console would be expected to debut, but as I've stated in the past, all 3 companies are in a position where it makes no sense to jump ahead.

Wii- Nintendo has captured an audience they have never seen before, and most be careful with their next console. They can't afford to make it too expensive, but on the same hand must have it compete on a technical level and offer something that makes a Wii owner want to upgrade.

360- The 360 has a stellar line-up and the best 3rd party support of all the consoles. MS is not guaranteed the same type of success at the start of the next gen especially...

Ps3- Sony and its developers are finally coming to terms with the hardware, not only are they making great looking games, but original games at that. They are finally picking up momentum, and on a global basis either outsells or is pretty damn close to the Xbox.

My guess is that after the motion control stop gap ends, all companies will be ready to roll with something in 2012.

Also quote from Sega PR on Natal/Move

I think Natal and the Sony Motion Controller allow us to do things that are more about multi, party gaming.

In a way, it's a move away potentially from the core. That's what we're actually getting good at. Mario & Sonic is a multi-party game - but it's actually good fun. Microsoft and Sony are telling us that actually, we don't have to spend $20 million to get things consumers like, because you can approach things with games that are repetitive fun - easy to pick up and pass around. That's where we could either use old Sega IP or come up with new ideas.

The challenge for both first parties is to make sure the installed base of these devices is as high as they've claimed it will be.

If you look at how many Xbox 360s or PS3s there in Europe - let's say 12 million of each - if they get an attached rated of 12-and-a-half per cent with these [motion] devices, that's 2.5 million consumers for us to go after. If ten per cent of those buy our games, that's 250,000. How much money can you realistically spend on development for that audience?

But Microsoft and Sony are talking very big numbers. If they can achieve that, it will make these devices very viable. Could sales of Natal hit 50 per cent of those current installed base? We think the price point will be very attractive. 360 has a long way to go with a lot more hardware - so, for example, if they were to bundle Natal, it's a home run if they can afford to do that. I would imagine both Microsoft and Sony are going to spend big development money to make these devices very attractive.

We'll certainly be supporting both. We have several games on both [move] and Natal that you will see from around the end of this year and into 2011.

[TheGame]

Originally Posted by manasecret

This is a question that I think affects the debate.

When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?

I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.

I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).

That's a good question, it has also been on the back of my mind in this thread.

I think this Generation will be longer then what we're used to, because nobody really failed bad enough to want it to end quickly.

[Angrist]

Wow, finally some good old GameTavern discussions!!

I think Reggie said 'Nintendo will make a new console when Miyamoto needs one to make his games.'
Although he makes a good point, it sounds pretty arrogant. As if Miyamoto's the only guy who makes good games at Nintendo...

[TheGame]

Originally Posted by Angrist

Wow, finally some good old GameTavern discussions!!

I think Reggie said 'Nintendo will make a new console when Miyamoto needs one to make his games.'
Although he makes a good point, it sounds pretty arrogant. As if Miyamoto's the only guy who makes good games at Nintendo...

I don't know about him being the only good one to make them.. but his finger prints being on a game sure does increase the chances of it selling. :P

But anyway, I don't think this generation is ending any time soon. I expect Ps3 and X360 to be $150 before it ends.. And I expect the next gen consoles to be $299 at launch. I think this gen still has a good 60-100 million hardware sales left in it.

[manasecret]

I tend to forget the timeframes from previous generations, so let's recap, going by American release dates and price in the U.S.:

Third Generation (8-bit era)
NES: October 18, 1985 -- $199
Sega Master System: June 1 1986 -- $199

Fourth Generation (16-bit era)
Genesis:September 15, 1989 --$190
SNES: August 1991 -- $199.99

Fifth Generation (32-bit, 64-bit and 3D-1 Era)
Saturn: May 11, 1995 -- $399
PS1: September 9, 1995 -- $299.99
N64: September 29, 1996 -- $199

Sixth Generation (3D-2 Era)
Dreamcast: September 9, 1999 - $199.99
PS2: October 26, 2000 -- $299.99
Xbox: November 15, 2001 -- $299.99
GCN: November 18, 2001 -- $199.99

Seventh Generation (3D-3 & Motion-1 Era)
X360: November 22, 2005 -- $399.99 (Premium)
PS3: November 17, 2006 -- $599.99 (Premium)
Wii: November 19, 2006 -- $249.99

So the time between generations, going by the most successful console at the time of a generation change, was:

NES-->SNES: 6 years
SNES-->N64: 5 years
PS1-->PS2: 5 Years
PS2-->PS3: 6 Years

So on average, the typical time before the next generation release is 5.5 years.

So, if the next generation comes out in 2012, and assuming the Wii is the most successful of this generation, that actually puts things right on track.

I think the new consoles will start coming out in 2012.

[BreakABone]

I had 2012 pegged as the start of the next generation as well, but who's chicken first and announces their next console?

I mean business wise, would make the most sense for Nintendo since aren't releasing new tech at the end of the year, but also the market leader so hard to say.

[TheGame]

Originally Posted by BreakABone

I had 2012 pegged as the start of the next generation as well, but who's chicken first and announces their next console?

I mean business wise, would make the most sense for Nintendo since aren't releasing new tech at the end of the year, but also the market leader so hard to say.

From a history standpoint, it's usually not the front runner who kicks off the generation.. it's one of the companies that did worse in sales. It makes sense because if you're moving the most hardware, you're probably not going to be in any rush for things to change.

So it's on Sony, or maybe Microsoft (depending on how they feel about this gen) to kick off the next generation.

The thing is, I think all the companies were successful enough to where they're likely not going to try and push out anything fast. Also the 360 and Ps3 are different enough from Wii that they still probably have quite a lot of homes that they can fill.

And on top of that.. I think Sony just might be cocky enough about their 10 year console life span not to rush things.. even if they're in last place. Sony is still selling Ps2's and PSPs.. So they might even have less incentive then Microsoft to move on.

So.. I think if things start in 2012, we're going to see a microsoft release first again. But more likely, I think it's going to start in 2013 with a Sony release first. I can't see Nintendo going first under any circumstance.

[BreakABone]

The thing with MS/Sony, I guess is two fold. They are doing well, historically better than any second or third place console has ever done, but on the same hand, they will suffer a downswing soon enough (the same way the Wii is now), but what I was more talking about is Natal/Move, they really have to give it room to breath, but on the same hand, I would imagine that both companies have an emergency new console if the tech does not take off.

(That is one hell of a run on sentence so excuse me)

Now here's the thing, traditionally (And this generation is breaking all types of norms) the consoles are announced roughly a year/year and a half before their release which would mean we should start hearing about them at next e3.

If that is the case, it would only give Natal/Move a few months on market, before people start thinking that its dead tech. On the same hand, if Natal/Move takes off, does Sony/MS just hold their cards? What of developers who already started work on their launch titleS?


Now I agree with you about Nintendo not launching first, honestly it makes no sense for them, especially if Mario/Metroid/Zelda are this year, they won't have anything to launch with in 2011 so 2012 at earliest seems like their best bet. On the same hand, what do they do for the rest of the generation. They've exhausted Mario and Metroid for the most part. Zeldas aren't released that often. Smash Bros/Mario Kart seem like once a generation games. And then the rest of their franchises are a bit lower key. Sure they have stuff like The Last Story and Xenoblade, but no proof that will find an audience.

And they can't really depend on 3rd parties to fill any voids.

[thatmariolover]

Just had to post this because I love it:

[Fox 6]

Originally Posted by thatmariolover

Just had to post this because I love it:

Damn, beat me to it.

[Angrist]

You wanted to draw the same thing?

[Fox 6]

Originally Posted by Angrist

You wanted to draw the same thing?

didn't you?

[manasecret]

I just counted the other day (re: how many licks?). I got about 125. I say "about", because I didn't notice that I had gotten to the tootsie roll center until it was quite a bit revealed.

[Angrist]

Originally Posted by Fox 6

didn't you?

Hm if that's an advertizement, we don't have it in Europe. I don't even think we have the brand here.