Xbox Gets Slim, Natal Becomes Kinect

[BreakABone]

I guess this can be the thread to discuss Kinect, and boy after e3 this thing has not come out smelling good at all.

The reveals (both of them) didn't seem to go over well with the press, but I'm sure that could work itself out in time.

The two big pieces of information that may hurt it,
a) Can't patch in support for older titles. Sure people probably wouldn't use it, but if Bungie or CoD wanted to throw in a Kinect mode just for people, won't happen.
Also as for the reason (it takes a hit of the 360's processor power), it also means there is a slim chance you will see major titles supporting both traditional controls and Kinect.

b)According to both IGN and Kotaku, it appears that Kinect can not recognize a person when they are sitting down. Even when doing the cool menu interface stuff you need to stand up. And yeah it was demo-ed in the video, but of course that was staged.
I'm hoping they work that problem out before this is released.

[gekko]

Who is saying the reason is lack of processing power? I think that's just plain wrong (still can't upgrade, but for a different reason).

[Vampyr]

Definitely not going to buy Kinect. Large price point, and it just doesn't look fun.

The only scenario I can imagine it being useful in is being able to turn your head in the cockpit of a car game. But if I have to stand up and do it? No thanks.

[Angrist]

Originally Posted by BreakABone

b)According to both IGN and Kotaku, it appears that Kinect can not recognize a person when they are sitting down. Even when doing the cool menu interface stuff you need to stand up. And yeah it was demo-ed in the video, but of course that was staged.
I'm hoping they work that problem out before this is released.

Really?? That's quite shocking. I (honestly) hope they work that out.

[gekko]

Where exactly at E3 are they getting a chance to test out sitting in a chair?

[BreakABone]

Originally Posted by gekko

Where exactly at E3 are they getting a chance to test out sitting in a chair?

Not so much that they got a chance to try it out, as much as what they've heard on the show floor

Right now, Kinect only works when you stand. This includes menu navigation. All the cool options to grab a slider and advance through frames of a movie you are watching only work when you are on your feet. Kinect, we've been told, has problems handling your skeletal frame while sitting. The voice commands still work, but every game we've seen and even simple menu navigation have to be done with you out of your seat. That's not exactly how I want to watch my movies. If the focus for Kinect is creating games like Dance Central that naturally would require you to be off your couch, that's great. But I have to say, no one thinks "I am driving a car!" while standing up in their living room.

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/109/1099085p1.html

Edge reported devs' concerns on this exact problem - parsing out the player from furniture - a couple of issues ago. It seems entirely believable when you take a moment to think about the challenges involved vs dealing with people standing 'free'.

Again though, said article said that MS was working to fix this.

UPDATE: A Microsoft spokesperson told me after the publication of this article that the company is certain that Kinect gesture control will work for movies, ESPN and other "entertainment" features before the sensor is launched. As I originally reported, that is not an implemented feature yet. The spokesperson was not able to provide any update on the Kinect's tolerance of a person who sits while playing games.

http://kotaku.com/5565777/xbox-kinec...couch-potatoes

[BreakABone]

http://store.microsoft.com/microsoft...oduct/C737B081

So even Microsoft's official site is listing the price as $150, I think this about wraps it up for the price.

[Angrist]

The virtual boy wasn't an add-on!

[Typhoid]

Jesus you guys are so negative towards the idea of motion control.

[Xantar]

Originally Posted by Typhoid

Jesus you guys are so negative towards the idea of motion control.

So do you think a peripheral launched in the fourth year of a console's life cycle priced at over $100 is going to sell anywhere near enough that developers are going to feel justified spending any resources on it?

Because if you do, let me see if I can interest you in this bridge I'm building in Phoenix, Arizona.

[Professor S]

Originally Posted by Xantar

So do you think a peripheral launched in the fourth year of a console's life cycle priced at over $100 is going to sell anywhere near enough that developers are going to feel justified spending any resources on it?

Because if you do, let me see if I can interest you in this bridge I'm building in Phoenix, Arizona.

I agree with Xantar. These are all quality ideas, especially Kinect, but they needed to be shelved until the next gen launch (however far away that might be). That would give time to perfect the product (Kinect needs it), get developers and publishers on board AND establish the brand and product value in the minds of the consumers. Without the peripheral being integral to the concept of the platform itself, I don't see how MS or Sony can pull this off with any real success. But then again, Nintendo proved me wrong with the Wii, so who knows. I have a blind spot when it comes to the public's thirst motion controls and family oriented gaming.

Right now it seems Sony and MS are caught up in a race to see who can release the first irrelevant loss leader.

[BreakABone]

Originally Posted by Typhoid

Jesus you guys are so negative towards the idea of motion control.

I don't think them being negative about the price and them wanting it to fail is the same as being negative about motion controls. (Except for maybe Moogle and Dylflon, who pretty much want motion controls to die in a fire)

I'm not negative towards motion controls, and while I want neither device to fail, we both know how its gonna work out.

Originally Posted by Professor S

I agree with Xantar. These are all quality ideas, especially Kinect, but they needed to be shelved until the next gen launch (however far away that might be). That would give time to perfect the product (Kinect needs it), get developers and publishers on board AND establish the brand and product value in the minds of the consumers. Without the peripheral being integral to the concept of the platform itself, I don't see how MS or Sony can pull this off with any real success. But then again, Nintendo proved me wrong with the Wii, so who knows. I have a blind spot when it comes to the public's thirst motion controls and family oriented gaming.

Right now it seems Sony and MS are caught up in a race to see who can release the first irrelevant loss leader.

I think this was kind of needed, I hope and suspect that for both MS and Sony this was a trial run for their tech to kind of get their feet wet. It also takes away Nintendo's mindshare going into the next generation.

And I hope that it cures developers growing pains with motion controls when we head into next-gen

[Xantar]

If these numbers are deeply underwhelming, I can see Sony and Microsoft making motion control take a back seat to controller gaming.

And that there is the problem. The numbers will be deeply underwhelming, but not because of how well Kinect works or doesn't work or how much people are intrigued by it. As three separate people have been trying to point out to you now, the price is too high, the timing is too late, and the support is too little. When Kinect fails, how is Microsoft supposed to know whether that means they should include it in the Xbox 4Pi or not? There is no such thing in business as finding some kind of "absolute bottom" number and then extrapolating from that to figure out how well something would sell if you actually developed it properly. The math does not allow you to separate out the factors like that. There is no math formula that says, "If Kinect sells 100,000 units, that means it will sell 5 million if you built a console from the ground up to include it." Any economist will tell you that.

This makes zero percent chance from a business standpoint. Developing a product and releasing it with the expectation that it will fail is a horrible way to do business. Just try selling that pitch to some venture capital investors in Silicon Valley. The only thing Microsoft is getting out of this is PR, and now it's starting to sound like they'll fail at even that because the Kinect won't live up to the hype and will utterly fail to sell.

But hey, if you think it's such a good tactic, go buy some Microsoft stock. I'll be happy to short sell against you.

[Typhoid]

Originally Posted by Xantar

As three separate people have been trying to point out to you now, the price is too high, the timing is too late, and the support is too little.

This isn't Minority Report. Three people and their opinions don't dictate anything. You're not pre-cogs, you're all the exact same thing I am. A dude posting on the internet. Nothing makes your assumptions more valid than mine. I'll use my pre-cog abilities - however - to see into the future to the point where you make a long post arguing that your opinion is better than mine.

The thing about the cost is it's perspective. If 3 of you don't want to buy Move/Kinect, neat. Then don't. Maybe you can't afford it. I assume not - if price is an issue for you. I however, plan on buying Move. But of course that doesn't matter, because 1 is the loneliest number, right.

I also don't see the timing as 'too late'. Next Gen isn't for a while, still. It would be 'Too late' if they already announced the next gen consoles and peripherals, and loads of games lined up. But they haven't. I don't call 1-2 years "too late" in a consoles life for anything to do with that console to be released. Again, if you think a year or two is a short, unmeasurable amount of time to do with the lifespan of a console, neat.

And of course there isn't any support yet. It's not even released. With that theory I can assume the 3DS will crash and burn terribly because there isn't a bucketload of games out for it. Next gen will be terrible because no games have been announced. And don't even think of saying 'Next gen' is too far away - because that timeframe is your argument against the Move/Kinect.

There is no such thing in business as finding some kind of "absolute bottom" number and then extrapolating from that to figure out how well something would sell if you actually developed it properly.

No, but there is something called 'Public Interest'.
3D TV's didn't come out before 3D movies proved people want [good] 3D technology. A 3D handheld didn't come out before that, either. If 3D TV's were on the public market before [good] 3D movies, that would be a different story.

The math does not allow you to separate out the factors like that. There is no math formula that says, "If Kinect sells 100,000 units, that means it will sell 5 million if you built a console from the ground up to include it." Any economist will tell you that.

What's your point? That's not even what I was talking about.

This makes zero percent chance from a business standpoint. Developing a product and releasing it with the expectation that it will fail is a horrible way to do business.

There are two problems with this.
Problem A: Testing a market makes 0 sense? Really? Really?
Problem B: You are expecting it to fail. Not them.

But hey, if you think it's such a good tactic, go buy some Microsoft stock. I'll be happy to short sell against you.

I'll do you one better. I'll buy a Move.

[Xantar]

Originally Posted by Typhoid

This isn't Minority Report. Three people and their opinions don't dictate anything. You're not pre-cogs, you're all the exact same thing I am. A dude posting on the internet. Nothing makes your assumptions more valid than mine.

Wow. I've got to hand it to you. When you decide to be ignorant and delusional, you really commit to the role.

Look, just because you say it's just a difference of opinion doesn't make it so. This isn't fortune telling. This is using what's happened in the past and applying it to the present in order to figure out what's going to happen in the future. You're familiar with the concept of learning from the past, aren't you? I keep asking you this question: name one peripheral over $100 which has sold well on a four year old console. And you never answer. I wonder why that is. I'm not trying to browbeat you with superiority of numbers. I'm expressing incredulity that so many people can explain this very simple idea to you and you apparently still can't get it.

I'm not sure what makes you so certain that this time is special and won't follow the exact same path as every other peripheral in console history, but I'm not the one making baseless assumptions here.

And before you start whining about how I'm insulting you and making disparaging remarks about my penis size, why don't you go find me an example of a peripheral which has succeeded?

I'll use my pre-cog abilities - however - to see into the future to the point where you make a long post arguing that your opinion is better than mine.

Just wanted to point out that the reason my posts are so long is I'm explaining absurdly simple concepts to you very slowly so that you can understand them.

I also don't see the timing as 'too late'. Next Gen isn't for a while, still. It would be 'Too late' if they already announced the next gen consoles and peripherals, and loads of games lined up. But they haven't. I don't call 1-2 years "too late" in a consoles life for anything to do with that console to be released. Again, if you think a year or two is a short, unmeasurable amount of time to do with the lifespan of a console, neat.

The point isn't that there's not enough time left in the console cycle. The point is too much time has already passed. Tens of millions of people are out there who have purchased consoles without Move or Kinect, and the vast majority of them are not going to buy it now. That means the incentive for developers is heavily on the side of not supporting Move or Kinect. And when developers don't support a peripheral, people don't buy it. And when people don't buy a peripheral, developers don't support it. It's what's happened in the past. It's what will happen this time.

No, but there is something called 'Public Interest'.
3D TV's didn't come out before 3D movies proved people want [good] 3D technology. A 3D handheld didn't come out before that, either. If 3D TV's were on the public market before [good] 3D movies, that would be a different story.

Here's where your analogy breaks down: 3D movies were released in order to make money. They weren't pushed out as a test case or to gauge public interest. The point of releasing movies in 3D was for the movies to make a profit. And they did.

The theory you've been pushing is that Microsoft and Sony are releasing motion control devices just to see how much interest they get. And that's utterly wrong. Microsoft and Sony should be releasing motion control devices in order to make money. The problem is they won't (see above).

There are two problems with this.
Problem A: Testing a market makes 0 sense? Really? Really?
Problem B: You are expecting it to fail. Not them.

Problem A: It is when you're releasing something that's going to fail and is going to cost you a lot of money (you can give me a counter-example of a peripheral which has sold this late in the console cycle any time you want).
Problem B: Then they're idiots. Again, look at history.

I'll do you one better. I'll buy a Move.

That wasn't the point, but I'm loading your head with too many thoughts now so I'll stop for the time being. Come back with a $100 peripheral which has sold well, why don't you?