First Presidential Debate

[Professor S]

Originally Posted by The Germanator

Again, are you talking national polls? Nate Silver just posted about how Obama is leading in 19/20 of swing state polls that came out today...If he wins just a few of those (especially Ohio), it's simple he'll win...And the polls are especially strong in Ohio.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ically-biased/

Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium is even more bullish on Obama, basically giving him a 98% chance to win. He was even more accurate than Silver last election.

http://election.princeton.edu/

I'm looking at the RCP information, and considering past history of incumbents with less than a 50% polling average, and well behind in independent voters. As I said, the current models are anticipating something close to a 2008 turn out, and that would mean an Obama victory. If dems do not come out in large numbers, Romney's lead with independents will likely lead him to victory.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

I have a feeling this is going to be a weird election night with some serious surprises going both ways. I have this nagging feeling PA is in play...