The Stimulus Package

[KillerGremlin]

Bush is an awesome scapegoat though.

[Professor S]

One thing the charts should also illustrate is that these "new ideas" that are being pushed by President Obama, Pelosi, etc. are not new at all, just tired retreads of old ideas like The New Deal under FDR and The Great Society under Johnson.

Bond, why do you think fiscal conservatives have such a hard time making the argument that you did? It's so straight forward and simple when you put it in those terms. Do you think politicians are simply afraid that people won't understand the tax cut argument beyond the immediate affect to their pocket book?

Its things like this that make me appreciate Reagan more the older I get: He never talked down to the American people or tried to misrepresent his views out of fear his constituency wouldn't "get it". I think there is a lack of trust and confidence by politicians today, and that gets returned in kind.

As for the Bush scapegoating, the dems will get some mileage out of this right now, but they need to be wary of continuing with it. The feeling I get is that most people who disliked Bush want to get BEYOND his presidency, not give it grave dressing, and every time a politician mentions Bush's name people get more and more sick of it.

[BreakABone]

So it doesn't seem like people are turning against Obama for this bill.
And as it stands right now unless I'm mistaken, tax cuts makes up the single largest portion of this new bill.

[Professor S]

I haven't seen any details on the newer version of the bill, so I'll reserve comment. My comments were based on the House version of the bill.

[Bond]

Originally Posted by Professor S

Bond, why do you think fiscal conservatives have such a hard time making the argument that you did? It's so straight forward and simple when you put it in those terms. Do you think politicians are simply afraid that people won't understand the tax cut argument beyond the immediate affect to their pocket book?

Your guess is probably as good (or better) than mine. I do have a few ideas, though.

For one, I don't think most people want to deal with quantitative graphs, the distinction between tax rates and tax revenue, real numbers adjusted for inflation, etc.

Secondly, most of our politicians are lawyers, from liberal arts backgrounds. I would have to assume few understand economics. It's very complicated, and I only have a very basic understanding. As you go into more complex economic theory, the conclusions that are drawn become more and more subjective. But, I think it is possible to arrive at at least a few fundamental truths, at the most basic level, which the graphs I posted illustrate.

Also, economic discussions (really arguments) in politics always boils down to class warfare rhetoric, which is neither helpful, nor accurate. Each part of an economy depends on the other part: rich depend on poor, poor depend on rich, etc. The graphs are evident of this. The goal of economic policy, in my opinion, should always be to create the most wealth within the society (as I believe the creation of wealth is unlimited). Once you understand we are all interconnected, and all need to work toward wealth creation, there is no reason to hate thy neighbor, whether they be rich or poor. But that's just my view.

[KillerGremlin]

I plead ignorant, which is why I'm avoiding this discussion for the most part.

However, I think part of the problem is the media too. I mean, turn on FOX or CNN or even the extreme liberal media (Daily Show), and all they talk about is how the Republicans are all opposing the Stimulus, or how it is Dems vs. Pubs.

There is very little content actually explaining how our economy works, and why our economy is in such a shitty spot right now.

Does the mass media get a cookie for polarizing/stupidizing the American Public? How come the American public are too ignorant to be educated on their own economy. Of course that makes me a huge hypocrite, but when I have some time I would like to sit down and learn US Econ 101 because soon I'll be doing all my own taxes and stuff.

[TheGame]

Bond, if you don't mind, can you scale that first graph down to the last 10 years? And also include real numbers instead of percentages? (You did post a nice secondary graph that helps, but a 50 year example is too large.)

By the way, I don't think tax cuts are ALWAYS bad, I just don't believe that they're ALWAYS the answer. Two different extremes there.

And of course, I have to toss in the fact that if you put a 50 year example of the debt the country has gotten into, I'm sure the slope would move up a lot faster then even the GDP.

[BreakABone]

The Senate has voted for cloture on the Stimulus bill.
Not exactly sure what that means.
But it does get us past the filibuster stage, right?

Anyhow a vote of 61-39.

[Jason1]

I thank the 3 of you for caring about the people out there that are suffering right now. Thank you.

[Professor S]

Originally Posted by BreakABone

The Senate has voted for cloture on the Stimulus bill.
Not exactly sure what that means.
But it does get us past the filibuster stage, right?

Anyhow a vote of 61-39.

I believe thats correct. At least the debate was able to pear down the stimulus by $106 billion... not that it matters much when we tax payers are already on the hook for $9.7 trillion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNDaPlDwNZak

Thats a number thats just too big to comprehend. We haven't even gotten to the banks or housing plans yet...

I'm no economic expert and I'll be the first to admit I have no clue how national debt affects mainstreet economies, but this kind if daunting debt and IMO recklessness can't be good. But then again we're in new territory here. No one has ever taken the US or another world power this far into the red. Who knows? Maybe we'll spend so much we'll tear a whole through our own reality into a land of gumdrops and money trees.

In the end we'll see how wallstreet reacts tomorrow. That will be a decent indicator of whether or not this now inevitable spending bill will help or delay economic recovery.

[TheGame]

Originally Posted by Professor S

I'm no economic expert and I'll be the first to admit I have no clue how national debt affects mainstreet economies, but this kind if daunting debt and IMO recklessness can't be good. But then again we're in new territory here. No one has ever taken the US or another world power this far into the red. Who knows? Maybe we'll spend so much we'll tear a whole through our own reality into a land of gumdrops and money trees.

You should read up on the fed. Its not exactly the best situation to say the least. Though the funny part is they couldn't recollect what we owe them even if they wanted to, but if they were to request any type of plan with any type of reasonable time limit... The economy here is done. lol

[Bond]

Originally Posted by TheGame

Bond, if you don't mind, can you scale that first graph down to the last 10 years? And also include real numbers instead of percentages? (You did post a nice secondary graph that helps, but a 50 year example is too large.)

I'll do this over the weekend (it will still prove the same point, though).

Will post some more thoughts on the economy then as well.

[Bond]

Originally Posted by Professor S

In the end we'll see how wallstreet reacts tomorrow. That will be a decent indicator of whether or not this now inevitable spending bill will help or delay economic recovery.

The market is, at least initially, responding very poorly (looking at today's trading numbers).

[Professor S]

The DOW has dropped 300 points since the stimulus bills passed the cloture vote. Awesome.

By the time the banking and housing plans pass we'll be bartering beads for beaver pelts...

EDIT: Sorry make that a 400 point drop... ugh... I hope I can look at my 401k balance sheet again sometime soon...

EDIT2: Now its back up and finished almost even on the day... I'm just not going to look at it anymore...

[KillerGremlin]

Originally Posted by Professor S

EDIT2: Now its back up and finished almost even on the day... I'm just not going to look at it anymore...

DOW: THE RIDE!

(warning: pregnant mothers and people with heart conditions not recommended)