Marijuana may increase psychosis risk

[Professor S]

Honestly, I need to see some hard numbers on this. When researchers start emphasizing only their percentage results with no context, I'm always doubtful as to the impact of the research.

So how can a 40% increased risk not be harmful?

Well, if your original risk of "psychosis" was 1 in 4,239,389.3, and smoking weed made it [b]2 in 4,239,389.3, thats a 100% increase but your odds are still pretty damn slim.

Its all in the numbers, not in the percentages.

[Bond]

Here's some more information, but it's still rather vague:

"Zammit and colleagues from the University of Bristol, Imperial College and Cambridge University examined 35 studies that tracked tens of thousands of people for periods ranging from one year to 27 years to examine the effect of marijuana on mental health.

They looked for psychotic illnesses as well as cognitive disorders including delusions and hallucinations, bipolar disorder, depression, anxiety, neuroses and suicidal tendencies.

They found that people who used marijuana had roughly a 40 percent higher chance of developing a psychotic disorder later in life. The overall risk remains very low.

For example, Zammit said the risk of developing schizophrenia for most people is less than 1 percent. The prevalence of schizophrenia is believed to be about five in 1,000 people. But because of the drug's wide popularity, the researchers estimate that about 800 new cases of psychosis could be prevented by reducing marijuana use.

The scientists found a more disturbing outlook for "heavy users" of pot, those who used it daily or weekly: Their risk for psychosis jumped to a range of 50 percent to 200 percent."

[The Germanator]

Originally Posted by Bond

Here's some more information, but it's still rather vague:

"They looked for psychotic illnesses as well as cognitive disorders including delusions and hallucinations

Isn't that supposed to be part of the fun?

[Professor S]

The numbers in the quote Bond posted are some of the most irresonsible I;ve ever seen by a scientist. He mixes different numbers together.

For example, Zammit said the risk of developing schizophrenia for most people is less than 1 percent. The prevalence of schizophrenia is believed to be about five in 1,000 people. But because of the drug's wide popularity, the researchers estimate that about 800 new cases of psychosis could be prevented by reducing marijuana use.

So its 5 in 1,000 normally (.5% chance, BTW), but reducing weed use would stop 800 new cases? 800 new cases out of how many in the pool? 10,000? 100,000? 1,000,000? The world?

There is also the argument of causation vs. correlation. They are including depression in their numbers. Now are they depressed due to the weed, or do those that are depressed tend to gravitate towards its use?

There are so many questions to consider.

[Perfect Stu]

Originally Posted by Professor S

There is also the argument of causation vs. correlation. They are including depression in their numbers. Now are they depressed due to the weed, or do those that are depressed tend to gravitate towards its use?

There are so many questions to consider.

I assume they would only consider cases where depression/other symptoms are new to the user AFTER initial use of the weed. Otherwise, the study would be a joke. I can say with absolute confidence that people who suffer from varying levels of depression are more likely to use weed.

[Professor S]

Originally Posted by Perfect Stu

I assume they would only consider cases where depression/other symptoms are new to the user AFTER initial use of the weed.

Thats the word of the day with this study. They hope you assume.

Science is business. Scientists need results and need to prove their theories so that the grant money keeps rolling in. Be skeptical of all specious science, not just what is created by private companies.

If we judge the methodology and not the funding, then we will be on the right track.

[Teuthida]

I've read earlier studies where the risk of psychosis only increased if used before one's brain was fully developed and had a history of mental illness in the family already.

This reminds me of all those studies about whether cellphones cause cancer. You constantly get conflicting reports. You get studies about the hell benefits of cannabis and then these about the ill effects.

Yada yada yada everything in moderation.