Zogby says Kerry wins

[Neo]

http://nydailynews.com/front/story/247447p-211694c.html

What Zogby tells
me: Kerry wins


Pollster John Zogby, in a telephone interview with me yesterday, predicted that John Kerry will win the election. "It's close," he said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry."
When Zogby talks, politicians listen. He made his bones in the Bill Clinton-Bob Dole election of 1996, when he came within one-tenth of a percentage point of the final tally.

Bet me that when the Bushies read what Zogby told me, not just the rhetoric will rise, but so will the fever.

Particularly since one of their favorite columnists, Robert Novak, reported in yesterday's Washington Post that Zogby called the race for President Bush in a conversation he had with the pollster on Monday.

Zogby was jocular about the Novak column, although he has decided not to post a comment on his Web site. Here's what he told me: "I said Bush was winning, I didn't say I thought he'd win. On Monday, he was indeed looking good. But on Tuesday, things changed. Kerry, in that one day, picked up 5 points."

Well, what about New Jersey? Al Gore took the Garden State by 16 points, and now the Quinnipiac poll makes it even. If Kerry loses Jersey, it could be a landslide for Bush, no, Mr. Zogby?

I could hear Zogby shrug. "New Jersey?" he said. "Take out your navy blue crayon and color Jersey dark. I don't even poll New Jersey."

The politicians of both parties appear to agree. If they believed Jersey was in play, Kerry and Bush would be in Newark and Jersey City on the spot. But nobody showed.

Maurice Carroll nodded - I heard that on the phone, too. Mickey runs the Quinnipiac poll, and being straight, he said, "It makes me trepidatious about our numbers."

What?

"I've gotta look it up, too," he laughed. "But of course when the politicians pay no attention, we have to wonder if we got it right."

And then he added: "Maybe because our poll had 6% undecided. Historically, the undecided vote goes big to the challenger."

Polls, polls, polls. Is that all there is, Alfie?

Let's check the London line. The legal bookies across the sea have been uncannily right over the years on our elections. They probably called 1776 for George Washington.

And on this one, the Republicans have to love it.

The latest line from sunny old England makes Bush, in their funny lingo, a 4-7 favorite. (Vegas would say it 7-4.) That's almost 2-to-1.

Maybe London looks at it this way because they don't have the benefit of our pundits, day in, day out. On the other hand, we don't need polls to tell us that the Brits hate the Iraq war and consider Dubya to be a cut under Jack the Ripper.

The one poll that chilled me yesterday went like this: "If the candidate you're against wins, will you still support him?"

Sixty-two percent said no.

Maybe not civil war, but certainly something that great Texan Jim Hightower could explain to us.

"If the gods wanted us to vote," Hightower once observed, "they'd have given us candidates."

One interesting thing about Zogby's polls from 2000 is that they showed Bush leading nationally up until the end, and we all know who won the popular vote.

[GameMaster]

Nickelodeon's polls have also correctly guessed who would win the election before.

[Neo]

Originally Posted by GameMaster

Nickelodeon's polls have also correctly guessed who would win the election before.

[The Germanator]

Originally Posted by Neo

It's true. The kids may only hear bits and pieces of the news and only understand a little bit about the election and candidates, but it's not surprising that they predict the election...They probably also just say what their parents would say. I believe the Nick poll this year was 55% to 45% for Kerry or something like that.

[Blackmane]

Kids also vote the way their parents vote because they hear it from them. I know I used to be for my parents candidate before I started educated myself in politics.

[DeathsHand]

I've heard so many theories on the way things will voters will "break" on election day...

On the Daily Show Zogby (I think it was him) said that the reason there were so many undecideds down to the wire was because they don't want Bush... But don't necesarily want Kerry, but in the end he predicted that overall, change is what people would vote for, which would be Kerry... Adding that if instead of the race being "Bush vs. Kerry", it was "Bush vs. Not Bush", "Not Bush" would win by a greater margin than Kerry would in the "Bush vs. Kerry" race...

I even heard somewhere that these polls could all be way off to begin with, because nowadays a lot of younger folk (a majority of which support Kerry) don't have a home phone line, just cell phones, which don't get polled... Meaning there could be some sort of hidden advantage for Kerry... *shrug*

I think it's going to be a very close and a very interesting race...

[Neo]

Yes I've read that too; there is speculation there is a large "hidden vote" for Kerry that the polsters can't tap into. Plus turn out this year is supposed to be high, and high turn out generally favors demorcats.

[Typhoid]

Speaking of voter turnout, i was watching some show which i completely forget, but it was talking about college student aged, or younger people. Basically the first year voters and such.

And it was talking about them possibly voting for Kerry (obviously not 100% of them) because they might be afraid of a back door draft.

So i want to know, 1) What is a back door draft? and 2) is it this:

Could Bush give an option to people who just graduated highschool, now this option states that if said person does not attend college, or get a job, he has to join the army? Technically, this would not be a draft, because you are given an option.

Yes, I am aware this post makes no sense.

[DeathsHand]

Apparently when people talk about back-door drafts they are talking about things like forcing people who are already enlisted to stay longer than they were supposed to (like even when they were supposed to be done with the armed forces altogether)... Like ways to make people go/stay in Iraq that isn't outright grabbing random Joe-Shmoe off the street and sending him to basic training...

I know people are sorta afraid of a draft in general... Which seems unlikely, but is scary at the same time... Democrats are the ones who tend to bring up the possibilty, Sort of like how Bush throws around the threat of the US itself being a target of terrorism, but to a lesser extent... Scare tactics... HEY LIKE THAT SHOW! HEHE!

[Jason1]

We've held a mock election at my high school for the past 6 elections, and apparently we've correctly chosed the president every time. But I find this very hard to believe considering my town is so republicain baised its not even funny. Just as I thought, this year Bush came out on top by a nearly 2-1 margain. Hopefully we'll be wrong this time.

[Xantar]

Originally Posted by Neo

Yes I've read that too; there is speculation there is a large "hidden vote" for Kerry that the polsters can't tap into. Plus turn out this year is supposed to be high, and high turn out generally favors demorcats.

On the other hand, both parties (although seemingly Republicans a bit more than Democrats) are actively trying to invalidate votes. I, for example, can expect to face people trying to challenge my right to vote because I'm a college student in Pennsylvania rather than the owner of a permanent residence. I can still legally vote, and I know that partisan poll watchers have no right to stop me. However, not all voters are as well-informed as I am.

Then you've got the names of felons being expunged from voter rolls...except some of them are most certainly not felons. I don't know that very many names are being expunged from the rolls, but at a time when 500 votes in Florida could determine the next president, it might be enough.