Generally, I believe theory #1 with a smattering of theory #2 thrown in.
If you wanted to be really simplistic, you could recognize that some people are born with only one leg and thus have an invisible wall preventing them from ever becoming Olympic track stars. This can be scaled up to apply to people who are genetically doomed to be shorter than the ideal height for a runner or have a lower percentage of quick acting muscle or all kinds of other things. So I, for example, can never beat Michael Johnson's record no matter how much I train.
I still believe that there is always room for improvement, though. I don't see this as being incompatible with theory #1. The amount by which we improve ourselves is still limited by the fact that we cannot physically train for more than 24 hours a day (actually much less than that, but you get my point).
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