Quote:
Originally Posted by manasecret
However, I'm still assuming that -- despite all the blustering I've heard about how expensive the consoles are for MS and Sony this generation -- the next gen will start in 2012, starting with the Wii 2. (That's a gut feeling (i.e. made up), but also based off the timelines I compiled in that other thread about the Move.) In that case, the next gen will begin just as Move and Natal are waning, and would give them a second life moving into next gen.
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OK, so then people will instead be saying, "PS3 has Move? Oh, that thing which nobody bought? Why do we care?" Remember here that we're talking about 5% attachment rates if Microsoft and Sony are lucky. The original Xbox Live did much more to improve the gamer experience and (depending on how you count) arguably cost less than Natal, but only 10% of Xbox owners ever purchased a Live account (things got much better in the next generation, but in the beginning the uptake wasn't very good). My guess is that by holiday season 2011, both Natal and Move will already be written off as failures and by E3 2012 nobody will even want to talk about them.
Peripherals don't get a "second life" by moving into the next generation. Just like animals, once they die they are dead for good. Microsoft and Sony may have motion controls on the Xbox 4pi and the PS4, but they won't be called Natal and Move because they won't want to be associated with failures. By the time of E3 2005, there were still a few games being released that used the GBA-GCN link cable, but Nintendo didn't try to push link connectivity on the Wii. The feature was dead.