$500 PS3 a Possibility

[gekko]

Sony sticker shock: $500 PlayStation 3, $249 PSP are possibilities
Revenues, sales, even price tags are on the rise as analysts address the upcoming transition to next-gen machines.

In a year-end report that puts Leo Tolstoy to shame, industry analysts Michael Pachter and Edward Woo of Wedbush Morgan Securities presented the industry today with a 144-page tome of charts, theories, prognostication, and predictions. Unlike Tolstoy, however, their book has a happy ending.

Titled: The Definition of Insanity: Why The Next Console Cycle Will Start Off With A Whimper, the analysts present an "in-depth look at interactive entertainment software." And while many of the report's data points were revealed in May, during a Pachter-hosted E3 Conference Program luncheon, most of the data is, in fact, new.

Probably the most exotic of the report's predictions was a reference to Sony's PlayStation 2 update. The report suggests Sony is considering adding PSX and TiVo-like functionality to the PlayStation 3. And if it does, the sticker price on the unit could climb as high as $500. The report states: "We expect Sony to introduce its next console with more functionality than its current console. We base this conclusion on the introduction of the PSX, planned for late this year. The PSX will include a Digital Video Recorder (similar to TiVo) functionality; broadband Internet accessibility; wireless LAN functionality; and DVD read-write functionality. These features add approximately $500 per unit to the cost of production, resulting in an expected launch price of around $700. By late 2006, we expect the cost to include these features to decline to around $250, but speculate that the next generation console, should it include these features, could debut at $500. At this level, we believe that many consumers will be alienated."

Other key findings include an industry-wide growth rate (of revenues) of 10 percent per year through 2010 and a growth rate of 14.5 percent in revenues for console and handheld software in the US for the next three to four years.

The report also suggests US publishers will begin to see a significant increase in sales of game software in Japan, and that software sales will surpass domestic music sales (in revenues) over the next two years. Of note on the hardware front, the analysts expect that due to increasing multimedia functionality (DVD playback, high-def capabilities, and Web access) that the percentage of households that own at least one console will climb from 38 percent seen during the 32-/64-bit cycle to 52 percent during the ongoing 128-bit cycle.

On the PC front, the report isolates three titles that will act as key market movers: Doom 3, The Sims 2, and Half-Life 2, and that PC sales overall will be driven to "near record levels."

As well, the Wedbush analysts check in with their estimate of the PSP launch price, pegging the hardware to sell at $249.99 and software to retail for around $30.

Ultimately, it will be female gamers, the increased spending power of "tween" gamers (8-to-14 year olds), and aging but committed gamers introduced to interactive entertainment on the Atari 2600, for example, that will fuel the continued and dramatic growth of the industry.

The report's summary closes with the following brave prediction: "We expect interactive entertainment to be the fastest growing entertainment sector over the next five to 10 years. We forecast the interactive entertainment industry to grow US software sales by approximately 11.4 percent per year over the next three years. We project book and music sales to grow less than 5 percent per year over the next three years and we believe that box-office movie receipts will grow in the 2-4 percent range over the same time period. Using our projected growth rates, we forecast that the US interactive entertainment industry in 2004 will continue to be larger than these competing entertainment sectors (with the exception of the music industry which we believe will be surpassed over the next three years), becoming the largest of these major entertainment sectors within the US."

By Curt Feldman -- GameSpot
POSTED: 06/21/04 04:52 PM PST

Why has Microsoft had the only good news today about their next console?

[GameMaster]

And with that being said, Sony's reign as console King was lost. And it became extinct. And Nintendo made it's valiant return. And that, is the story of The Return of the King.

[Joeiss]

Is it just me, or are all of GameMaster's post pointless?

[GameMaster]

I expressively conveyed my opinion on Sony's price choice by telling a short, imaginative story. :D

Is it me, or are all of Joeiss' posts rhetorical attacks?

[Null]

well if going by every bit of news that comes out. then its said that ps3 will be 10 times more powerful then both xbox2 and n5.

so if you believe that, then the price you can also believe.

However, i hightly doubt both thoes, i THINK PS3 will come out at $349

But then again, it was being said that microsoft will have a cheap model, and then a $500 model with all the hard drive and other stuff built in, kinda a PC/xbox cross platform model.

so i can hardly say microsoft is the one with the good news. its all mostly rumors and speculation anywho. believe what you want, dismiss what you will, only things we can trust are the facts when they come out much futher down the road.

[The Germanator]

Gamemaster's posts are actually something I look forward to. More often than not they will give me a nice chuckle.

What are we without a nice chuckle here and there? Not very happy, chuckless people, that's what.

Anyway, $500...That's a lot for a system...and $250 is a lot for a portable...I wouldn't even consider buying either at launch with that kind of tag on there. Maybe three years in when there was a price drop to a still high $200...

[Null]

Gamemaster's posts are actually something I look forward to. More often than not they will give me a nice chuckle.

What are we without a nice chuckle here and there? Not very happy, chuckless people, that's what.

Anyway, $500...That's a lot for a system...and $250 is a lot for a portable...I wouldn't even consider buying either at launch with that kind of tag on there. Maybe three years in when there was a price drop to a still high $200...


actually, as of right now the 250 for PSP would be decent for them. considering the DS price is still rumored at 199. 50 more for a handheld +more doesnt seem so bad.

however when you look at it like i do that the DS would be way way over priced at that. then it throws things outta wack :p

as long as they keep it competitive with the others then its not going to hurt them as much.

if every console is is the 400 to 500 price range then it may hurt the industry as a whole, but not so much sony's hold on it.

but that price wont happen anyway for a nexgen console so it dont matter :p

[Jonbo298]

If this is true, then the market is gonna have 2 3DO's for the first 6 months to a year ;)

But I think there will be 2 variations. A version that plays games and dvd movies like PS2 does and one that does all that extra flashy stuff that shoves the price through the roof.

I don't care what you all think, but the future of gaming is being ruined by Sony and MS thinking we need these entertainment boxes. I personally don't prefer them. I like having seperate devices because then I know the company that made it took time to make that product, not shove it in with other things. Call me a Nintendo fanboy, say I'm biased, I dont care. Thats what I think the market is heading towards and its a bleak outlook for me.

[Typhoid]

I dont know how much $500 american is in canadian money, but all i know is that when the PS2 came out it was $700 cdn for a while. But now its $199 cdn, and comes with a game and adapter.

[tarakan69]

Ken Kuturagi has stated that Sony will never launch a home system priced above $299.

So end of discussion.

Same "ANALysts" that predicted PS2 would be 500+ because it could play DVDs.

[Joeiss]

I really don't think the PS2 was $700 alone in Canada... Maybe in a bundle with a controller and a couple games....

[bobcat]

For a second I was gonna say "that's a bargain". Then I realised it was US price.

[Ace195]

Hrm, Why do they add things like TiVo on there ? I mean that just raises the price more and it isn't needed. If I want a video capture system I'll add a vid capture card. Argh, stupid gaming consoles. Jeff you should buy all of them and let me play (Jeff = Hero2)

[Crash]

industry analysts are f-ing retards. they dont know their @$$ from a hole in the ground. I remember last year when they said the top selling games of the holiday season were going to be jimmy neutron and harry potter.

i think the ps2 would launch at 349.99, and i'm sure the new gamecube will debut at 249.99

[DarkMaster]

I don't care what you all think, but the future of gaming is being ruined by Sony and MS thinking we need these entertainment boxes. I personally don't prefer them. I like having seperate devices because then I know the company that made it took time to make that product, not shove it in with other things. Call me a Nintendo fanboy, say I'm biased, I dont care. Thats what I think the market is heading towards and its a bleak outlook for me.
How are they ruining gaming by adding different devices to their consoles? Being able to play dvd movies on my ps2 doesn't change the quality of the games. Both consoles use dvds for their games, adding dvd movie playback is not a big deal.

[Null]

if anything its nintendo thats ruining it by not listening to gamers. ;)

but no, games are games, it doesnt matter if your console doubles as a toaster, it still plays games and that toaster doesnt effect them.

personally i like it. case in point, just last week i went on vacation to canada to go 'camping' well i brought my PS2, and because i brought that i didnt need to bring a DVD player to watch movies. :p

at home i have a much better dvd player, so i dont use it, that doesnt effect the great games it has at all.

[Ace195]

I agree with you to a point null, on one side a dvd player is great and grand, but what the heck is the TiVo system for so when they are playing games they can record the shows they would have watched thus leading to the fattening of america so the japanese can invade. J/k about the japanese invasion but I'm serious about adding things that aren't needed. If you could show me one purpose for the TiVo system aside from the recording shows I'll bite my tongue

[TheGame]

Anylists aren't all that bad... I remember one article predicting Sony would sell over 50 Million Ps2's and put Microsoft and Nintendo at just over 20 million sold. Maybe just a lucky guess? Who knows...

As far as the future of gaming goes, I think Sony and Microsoft has only helped the industry to evolve for the better. Nintendo is a great gaming company, but adapting to evolution isn't their strong point. I think the only reason Nintendo is still alive and kicking as a hardware creator today is the Gameboy... a system that hasn't experienced real competition and that is extremely slow to evolution. (In both game quality and hardware quality)

[Jonbo298]

If MS/Sony don't offer "lite" versions of their consoles without all these extra things I won't be buying them for some time. If I already have a tivo, why do I need tivo like functions on my PS3 and Xbox2?

The $500 versions of these consoles (if it happens) will not be the choice for me. I just want a console that plays games. DVD movie playback doesn't matter because it basically doesn't cost much to include playback. I can live with it on consoles. But I just dont need the other stuff that jacks up the price.

[Typhoid]

I buy consoles to play games, not watch movies or record shows i could be watching while playing my new shiny console.

I think they should stop adding things to them, most people just want them to play games with.

[Vampyr]

I agree with Typhiod and Jonbo. Nintendo seems to be the only company with half a brain as of late (wow. when did that happen? I've always loved nintendo, but they got smart here recently.)

Remember back when the GCN first came out, and some people complained because it didnt have DVD player capabilities? At the time I was a little dissapointed (then I got a DVD player for christmas, so I didnt care.) When I go out and purchase a VIDEO GAME system, I purchase it for the sole purpose of playing video games. That's it. I dont want to watch movies, I dont want to record shows, and I dont want to use it to make brownies.

If sony DOES do this, and it DOES cost 500 dollars, then I wont get it. period. I trust Nintendo to do what they've always done: give us a great system that plays GAMES. If sony does do this, and they dont offer versions with all that crap taken out, I predict that it will be their downfall.

There arent many people who will pay 500 dollars for a system, and 300 dollars for the portable system.

[Typhoid]

I have a question, if the Sony consoles can do all this DVD and TiVo stuff, why cant their TivO and DVD stuff play games!?!?

Whats the difference?

[gekko]

If a built-in TiVo could record me playing the game, I would want it. Would make sending in records a lot easier.

I'm actually getting a TiVo when I get out the Corps, but would love to have one now, if I could use it while playing a game.

And surprisingly, I'd have to argue Microsoft is the only company with half a brain as of late.

[Null]

I have a question, if the Sony consoles can do all this DVD and TiVo stuff, why cant their TivO and DVD stuff play games!?!?

Whats the difference?

and the difference is......



*drum roll*









one plays games, one doesnt.

;) didnt see that one comin did ya? heheh

[Typhoid]

and the difference is......



*drum roll*









one plays games, one doesnt.

;) didnt see that one comin did ya? heheh





No but i mean, why have a game system that can play games and record tv, and play DVD's, and not do the same to the other two? it kind of makes them obsolete dont you think?

Because if you buy the system that has all of them, you dont need to buy the other ones.

[Acebot44]

Non gamers wouldnt want to pay extra so that they could have the ability to play games on their DVD player when they just want to watch movies.

[Null]

No but i mean, why have a game system that can play games and record tv, and play DVD's, and not do the same to the other two? it kind of makes them obsolete dont you think?

Because if you buy the system that has all of them, you dont need to buy the other ones.


kinda talking in circles.

movies and tv are something most every gamer users.

games are not something most every movie watcher uses.

And for some consoles, that are already using a DVD drive for media, adding DVD playback is not costing much and just makes sence.
what the hell would be the point to use a DVD drive and take away its ability to play movies? xbox and PS2 did not go out of thier way to add DVD playback. it was there already basically.

tivo is another matter, it might have something to do witht he hard drive tho and its prolly more like tivo ability not really the tivo brand.

the ability to use tivo style things is cheap. i can download free ones and run em on my PC just like a Tivo would work.

As long as they're not going out of thier way and adding stuff just to add it and tack on money to the overall cost. who the hell really cares?

[Jonbo298]

You have to figure this, to include tivo like functions, you have to include a hard drive. At least a 40 gig hard drive but most likely gonna have to be larger. Right now an 80 gig goes for about 60-75 depending on brand. That will probably go down in the next year but still, thats more money tacked on to include it. Along with everything else they want to cram in it along with what MS is doing, consoles aren't gonna be cheap at first UNLESS there is a lite version. Without it, people won't buy into it at first because price is probably gonna be an issue.

But I'm not gonna worry too much right now. E3 2005 is when most of this info. will be concrete or at least more realistic

[tarakan69]

But I'm not gonna worry too much right now. E3 2005 is when most of this info. will be concrete or at least more realistic


Too true...

[gekko]

Non gamers wouldnt want to pay extra so that they could have the ability to play games on their DVD player when they just want to watch movies.

And gamers wouldn't want to pay extra so that they could watch movies on their game console when they just want to play games.

[DarkMaster]

If Nintendo had a electronic media section of their company, I can guarantee you that the Nintendo consoles would include all these extra devices. If your company also makes other form of electronic entertainment, then yeah you're going to include them with your next big multi million dollar world wide selling video game console. It's all part of marketing and company product development.

Yeah, PS2 has DVD playback, because Sony makes DVD players, big surprise. Microsoft is a computer company, the Xbox comes with a built in hard drive and dvd player, so what? These things are to be expected. Company finacial analyist know that 95% of people who play video games also watch and enjoy movies, music, etc. They want to make the most of their system. If they made it just like Nintendo's system...well then it would be just like Nintendo's system. Direct competition isn't always wanted. It's the same with the PSP and the DS, they're different, they're aimed towards different types of people. Get what you want, enjoy them for what they are.

[Null]

You have to figure this, to include tivo like functions, you have to include a hard drive. At least a 40 gig hard drive but most likely gonna have to be larger. Right now an 80 gig goes for about 60-75 depending on brand. That will probably go down in the next year but still, thats more money tacked on to include it. Along with everything else they want to cram in it along with what MS is doing, consoles aren't gonna be cheap at first UNLESS there is a lite version. Without it, people won't buy into it at first because price is probably gonna be an issue.

But I'm not gonna worry too much right now. E3 2005 is when most of this info. will be concrete or at least more realistic


bigger the hard drive the better, i dont agree with adding tivo funtions (prolly cuz i already own one) but the hard drive thing is a bad example. a bigger hard drive would help even more with gaming.

[Jonbo298]

I never said anything bad about a hard drive being bad for gaming. I was just expressing the cost it would increase on the console for a larger HD.

And if Nintendo did the same thing where they threw in 50 things, of which 49 I use SPARINGLY, then I would either wait for a lite version or wait for a few price drops since I don't want to blow my money on features I won't use much at all. I'm not trying to look fanboyish to Nintendo, but they are the only ones so far that hasn't said they want to throw in things to make their "All in one entertainment machines".

[MuGen]

Discussions like these go in circles and it's getting tedious.

All I know is, I like the versatility of next-gen consoles. Microsoft and Sony are doing good things with their systems.

Sure you might have a DVD player at home, or TiVo. But we all know that in crunch time packing for a vacation, your not bringing your entertainment center with you.

$500 seems a bit high for PS3. But who knows.... maybe when the PS3 comes out everyone will have high paying jobs and the economy will be sky rocketing... HEHEHE :)

[Null]

I never said anything bad about a hard drive being bad for gaming. I was just expressing the cost it would increase on the console for a larger HD.

And if Nintendo did the same thing where they threw in 50 things, of which 49 I use SPARINGLY, then I would either wait for a lite version or wait for a few price drops since I don't want to blow my money on features I won't use much at all. I'm not trying to look fanboyish to Nintendo, but they are the only ones so far that hasn't said they want to throw in things to make their "All in one entertainment machines".

but thats saying that thoes extra features would cost a lot. much of the time thats not the case. sometimes they just throw it in cuz the console is able to do it. not because they want to make it do a bunch of extra things.

at launch, i garentee you the PS2 woulda costed the same as it did even without DVD playback.

[Vampyr]

packing for a vacation, your not bringing your entertainment center with you.

But I'm not going to bring my PS2 either, even if it does have all that extra stuff...when I go on vacation, it is to get away from everything at home. I take only clothes and money with me. (and a gameboy to play on the way to wherever i'm going). My PS2 and GCN have never left my house. Period.

I'd have to argue Microsoft is the only company with half a brain as of late.

Well...we have different stances on backwards compatability.

What Darkmaster said does make sense though...which is exactly why I'll get the Nintendo next gen system and nothing else. :p

[Jonbo298]

at launch, i garentee you the PS2 woulda costed the same as it did even without DVD playback.

Without DVD movie playback, the price wouldn't be much different anyways because the console can already read DVD's so the price wouldn't have been much different anyways.

[TheGame]

Ps2 would have costed Sony around $30-50 less (each) to make if it didn't have DVD playback.... there is a licencing fee which is much more friendly now then it ever was then. The licence was high enough to pursuade MS to make there gamers pay the extra fee themselves to watch DVDs on Xbox... good ol $30 remote.

But when you take into account the huge amounts of money Sony and Microsoft lost with the launch of the systems... adding DVD playback wasn't all that bad when compared to the expense of the rest of the hardware. When Sony first released Ps2 in Japan, DVD playback pretty much killed Sony's income because at the time it was the cheapest DVD player Japanese people could buy.

What's the point of my post? I dunno... Sony owned ass this generation with the new feature, and Nintendo continues their slide down hill without Online play and and extra features. How big of a factor was it? Who knows... What's the point of my post? That's for you to know and for me to find out.

[Null]

Without DVD movie playback, the price wouldn't be much different anyways because the console can already read DVD's so the price wouldn't have been much different anyways.


thats exactly my point! and what i've been saying in this topic a few times.

these features everyones saying "i dont want my game console to do this or that" are features that it can basically already do, adding them is not going out of thier way to add em at all.


depending on how the TIVO is done on it, if its kinda thier own version. its basically just a program running on the hard drive to do it. so it might not be outta thier way at all.