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TheSlyMoogle
03-10-2010, 09:31 PM
http://gdc.gamespot.com/story/6253204/ps3-motion-controller-qanda

Watch the video. Honestly looks like what I wanted the wii to be.

I'm going to stand corrected. If it works as well as it did in the video, then looks like this could actually be fun.

BreakABone
03-10-2010, 10:43 PM
I had Moogle sent me the information while out, and got all excited, and I get home and find it is literally the PS3's version of the Wii.

Just for some examples, here is the line-up of games
http://i.imgur.com/Th549.png
B-Roll Footage http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W00x0C7JbIs

The Shoot™ (Working Title)
http://i.imgur.com/wmvKs.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/JtdTT.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/P6QkC.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/U9fNY.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/J0ksQ.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/8w0Pd.jpg

Move Party (Working Title)
http://i.imgur.com/XhxJ8.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/evh3H.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/1pBE4.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/g3sOI.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/9AwkF.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/v5GRV.jpg

Motion Fighter (Working Title)
http://imgur.com/g8UWl.jpghttp://imgur.com/ootpd.jpghttp://imgur.com/sq5da.jpghttp://imgur.com/4dAkq.jpghttp://imgur.com/jHibK.jpghttp://imgur.com/IPXlh.jpghttp://imgur.com/f8WB4.jpghttp://imgur.com/1NrLY.jpg

Sports Champions
http://i.imgur.com/HnByj.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/aMYym.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/fOF9V.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/MV3sO.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/4rbmN.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/5BDE6.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/W4Y6x.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/EWCkH.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/FEriu.jpg

TV SuperStars
http://i.imgur.com/7HL0d.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/YzNZ1.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/J3tUv.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/uhlj8.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/j9rhF.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/9aZh0.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/2aLkn.jpg

Now the Motion Fighter game looks pretty cool, but the rest of it right now, just looks like experiences we had when the Wii launch. Now, I'm a huge fan of motion controllers, but this really isn't tapping any new grounds right now. Just doing it prettier.

And just because Sony is always one step ahead....
http://i39.tinypic.com/fdgb5e.jpg
http://ps3media.ign.com/ps3/image/article/107/1076561/playstation-move-20100310052954910_640w.jpg
http://ps3media.ign.com/ps3/image/article/107/1076561/playstation-move-20100310052959457_640w.jpg


That said, I hear that the next SOCOM supports it so wonder how that works out

TheSlyMoogle
03-10-2010, 10:48 PM
That said, I hear that the next SOCOM supports it so wonder how that works out

Looks a lot better than the wii, sorry earl.

DIE WII DIE!

BreakABone
03-10-2010, 10:54 PM
Looks a lot better than the wii, sorry earl.

DIE WII DIE!

I said as much in my post. :P

Xantar
03-11-2010, 02:28 AM
It's an add-on peripheral. It will die (at least this time). Next?

TheSlyMoogle
03-11-2010, 11:26 AM
It's an add-on peripheral. It will die (at least this time). Next?

It might, depending on the cost.

But I think odds are there are enough kids who got the wii 3 years ago who are old enough now to use the internet, find out about this, and bug the hell out of their parents for a PS3 and Motion thing. Probably sony will release a PS3/Motion bundle.

"BUT MOM IT'S THE NEW WII!"

manasecret
03-11-2010, 12:08 PM
Oooh shiny.

Carnage17
03-11-2010, 12:31 PM
i'm suprised it's coming out for $100 when the arguably technologically more advanced (at the very least more innovative/intriguing) Natal was rumored to go for $50, which is honestly the right price if you are trying to get it into as many current owners as possible

It's kind of funny to see Sony just so unabashedly rip off Wii, but on the flip side that speaks volumes for the success of Nintendo's huge risk when they went in the whole waggle direction. Who knows, maybe a more core-centric company like Sony will be able to promote more waggle games that are actually, you know, deep and worthwhile and use motion controller in legitimately engaging ways.

Still way more stoked to see the lid get blown off Natal at E3 though. Now that Move is ousted, can we start guessing the real name for Natal? I can't think of anything clever, I'll leave that up to you guys :)

Carnage17
03-11-2010, 12:34 PM
also, anyone else think that light bulb on the top of the "main" Move controller just looks absolutely retarded?

manasecret
03-11-2010, 01:55 PM
*picture deleted*


Ahem. WTF is going on in this picture???

also, anyone else think that light bulb on the top of the "main" Move controller just looks absolutely retarded?

Yeah I kind of agree, but at the same time they look kinda good... I think overall I approve of them. Much better than what it looked like before.

manasecret
03-11-2010, 02:07 PM
Well, the shots looks pretty, but it seems except for the game with you in it, actually playing the games is a different story:

I think I'm most impressed with what Sony calls the "augmented reality" experiences. Move Party is a great example: the PlayStation Eye's video feed is displayed on the screen – much like the company's EyeToy games – and the game will overlay handheld items right on top of the PlayStation Move controller. In one of the games in Move Party, you guide falling birds with a handheld fan, twisting the fan in clockwise and counterclockwise fashion to blow the birds towards the nests on either side of the screen. The device tracked the controller's position and rotation impressively well – even when I blocked the glowing orb from view of the camera, the game remembered its last position and tried to keep up with my hand motions. Eventually it would get out of sync until I released the glowing orb, and once the camera saw the light…bam, the item snapped right back where it should be.

It does feel like there's a bit of lag with hand motions, but it seems to me that it's because the PlayStation Eye's video feed is a millisecond behind real-life. But the augmented reality overlays match up perfectly with the on-screen controller, a testament to the camera's color sensing combined with the motion and tilt sensing keeping track of everything going on.

There are a couple of "pointer" based games on display, too. A game called "The Shoot," basically a rail shooter along the lines of Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles or Dead Space Extraction. Players move the PlayStation Move controller to guide the on-screen reticule around the playfield and shoot the incoming enemies. The "lag" I felt in the augmented reality demos was more apparent here because you didn't have your on-screen self guiding the reticule, and it wasn't matching up with any physical object. Plus, the game has its own calibration system and it was throwing off my aim – someone had set up the calibration for wide sweeping motions to guide the reticule just a few inches on-screen. Luckily a quick recalibration with the menu option, and a simple tap of the button on the controller and I was back in business.

I should note that The Shoot did get thrown out of whack in aiming, much like the same thing that happens in Wii Sports Resort's Sword Play. The game has a built-in recentering tool for when the reticule drifts, so it looks like the system may have a similar calibration issue that Wii MotionPlus does.

Sony really needed a better first-person shooter demonstration for the PlayStation Move and its uncreatively named Sub Controller (basically the Wii nunchuk ripoff). The company has a very early, and low-framerate version of SOCOM 4 here that does pointer tracking, similar to Resident Evil 4 on the Wii. It doesn't feel very sensitive in this demo, and that may be more because of SOCOM 4's early-in-development state.

There are some really early game demos here, and the less said about them, the better. Brunswick Bowling is way too early for prime time, and the bowling in Wii Sports Resorts (and even Wii Sports) has absolutely nothing to worry about if the game continues on its current path. Luckily the developer has a half year to work on the bowling game. It needs it, badly.

Then there's the fighting game called Motion Fighter that's gesture-based, and that felt way laggier than it should be, almost disconnecting the player from the on-screen action. The gladiator game in Sports Champions was a little better, but it, too seemed to have more lag in its swing motion than should be comfortable for the "next generation" of motion controllers.

Overall I'm liking the PlayStation Move's form factor and tech, and I'm more excited for this solution than Microsoft's Natal. That could change in an instant if and when Microsoft shows off more of its Xbox motion control in the next couple of months.

But the price and the lack of any real "wow" games on display here at Sony's press event sort of diminishes its impact.

However, ignoring pricing, the PlayStation Move is clearly a stronger solution than Nintendo's Wii remote, nunchuk, and Wii MotionPlus combination, and it definitely has more potential because of this more sensitive and more capable tech.

I'm just hoping for more than just Wii-like experiences in HD, and other than the augmented reality stuff in Move Party, that's all we're getting with PlayStation Move. So far, anyway. http://wii.ign.com/articles/107/1076600p1.html

Xantar
03-11-2010, 07:21 PM
It might, depending on the cost.

But I think odds are there are enough kids who got the wii 3 years ago who are old enough now to use the internet, find out about this, and bug the hell out of their parents for a PS3 and Motion thing. Probably sony will release a PS3/Motion bundle.

"BUT MOM IT'S THE NEW WII!"

I'm sorry. I don't think I made myself clear enough about my reasons for being absolutely sure that this thing will fail. So here's a link to a blog post I wrote in which I examine in more detail the past history of consoles and take into account all the prior successes of add-on peripherals: http://www.purevideogames.net/blog/?p=292

If you have any actual responses to my point instead of vague guesses about a fraction of the gaming audience, do let me know.

Typhoid
03-11-2010, 11:15 PM
I think this is a great idea.
Maybe it will force Nintendo to make an actual system next time instead of another gimmick which can be made as an add-on for the other systems.

Sony just literally gave a big "fuck you" to Nintendo with this, and I think it's hilarious.

Not only with a PS3 do you get a blu ray player, and a PS3 itself, you also get the option for a Wii, with better graphics.

manasecret
03-12-2010, 11:02 AM
I think this is a great idea.
Maybe it will force Nintendo to make an actual system next time instead of another gimmick which can be made as an add-on for the other systems.

Sony just literally gave a big "fuck you" to Nintendo with this, and I think it's hilarious.

Not only with a PS3 do you get a blu ray player, and a PS3 itself, you also get the option for a Wii, with better graphics.

And worse games. Yeah, fuck you Nintendo! We don't need quality games, we got pretty lights and shiny things!

I'm sorry. I don't think I made myself clear enough about my reasons for being absolutely sure that this thing will fail. So here's a link to a blog post I wrote in which I examine in more detail the past history of consoles and take into account all the prior successes of add-on peripherals: http://www.purevideogames.net/blog/?p=292

If you have any actual responses to my point instead of vague guesses about a fraction of the gaming audience, do let me know.

:D

TheGame
03-12-2010, 12:44 PM
I'm sorry. I don't think I made myself clear enough about my reasons for being absolutely sure that this thing will fail. So here's a link to a blog post I wrote in which I examine in more detail the past history of consoles and take into account all the prior successes of add-on peripherals: http://www.purevideogames.net/blog/?p=292

If you have any actual responses to my point instead of vague guesses about a fraction of the gaming audience, do let me know.

It depends on if you consider it an add on, or a new type of controler.

I remember two generations ago, a certain company introduced the analog stick, and a certain other company adapted it late... and somehow it got popular enough with developers and users alike to the point that it became the "normal" controler.

Just saying..

BreakABone
03-12-2010, 01:40 PM
It depends on if you consider it an add on, or a new type of controler.

I remember two generations ago, a certain company introduced the analog stick, and a certain other company adapted it late... and somehow it got popular enough with developers and users alike to the point that it became the "normal" controler.

Just saying..

This is slight revisionist history, the dual shock was popular, but really became the industry standard with the PS2 and not the PSX.

Very few games required its use on the PSX.

And this is an add-on, no if, ands or buts about it.
a)One it may take up to 3 controllers for you to play all Move games (some use two Move controllers, some use a Move and a subcontroller)
b)You need ANOTHER add-on to get it to work with the system (the PSEye)
c)Unlike the Dualshock, this is coming 4 years into the console lifespan
d) After showing their games, Sony doesn't look to be serious about it. I'm sure e3 will offer up more support, but right now looks like they are strandling the line between putting this as an option in their normal games, and that worked out so well for the SixAxis.
e)Price as a barrier to entry. Yes, if you want a full Wii-Mote these days it costs you 80 bucks, or if you are smart enough you can get two games, and a full controller for 120 bucks. The Move as stated before has 3 different setups so you need 3 controllers plus a camera, plus the console, and unlike the Wii none of that comes standard.

Will the Move fail? Probably not
Is it a threat to Nintendo? If these early games are any indiction, no.
People seem to think that Nintendo lucked out with all their games, but as Sony is showing and as 3rd parties have shown for the last 3 years, putting motion controls in a game is easy, balancing it so that it is both enjoyable and doesn't hinder the experience is tough.

TheGame
03-12-2010, 02:28 PM
This is slight revisionist history, the dual shock was popular, but really became the industry standard with the PS2 and not the PSX.

Very few games required its use on the PSX.

So are you saying this new controler will be required by more games on Ps3?



c)Unlike the Dualshock, this is coming 4 years into the console lifespan

Psx Launched at the end of 94, the Dual shock launched at the end of 97. (Or for US, mid 95 for Psx and mid 98 for Dual shock)... 3 years.. 4 years... same deal imo. I'm guessing at the time the DS had launched, Psx had more units sold then Ps3.

As for your other points... true, it requires more pieces of equipment, and more money.. but in the end, if someone likes both what the Ps3/360 offer and what the Wii offers, knowing that Sony offers the same gimmick (and more), might play against Nintendo's sales.

Who knows though.. it depends on how they advertize it, and if they get a good rip off for the Wii sports/fitness games.

BreakABone
03-12-2010, 02:59 PM
So are you saying this new controler will be required by more games on Ps3?

That's actually kind of the opposite of what I'm saying.

The PlayStation Move won't take off because it isn't required with games.

Let's say, do you think games like Uncharted 3, next Ratchet, Modnation will use Move as primary controls? Or do you think it will be given an option?

Psx Launched at the end of 94, the Dual shock launched at the end of 97. (Or for US, mid 95 for Psx and mid 98 for Dual shock)... 3 years.. 4 years... same deal imo. I'm guessing at the time the DS had launched, Psx had more units sold then Ps3.
How do you not see how you prove my point?
The DualShock didn't become the standard until the PS2, and was lightly supported on the PSX, with rare games like Ape Escape taking full advantage of it.

The PlayStationMove is coming a year later, and is building itself into an even smaller niche because unlike the PSX controller to Dual Shock doesn't have the same layout so its not like you can make a game that uses the Move like a normal controller. And yes I know of SOCOM, but meant moving something like UC 2 or Killzone onto it.

As for your other points... true, it requires more pieces of equipment, and more money.. but in the end, if someone likes both what the Ps3/360 offer and what the Wii offers, knowing that Sony offers the same gimmick (and more), might play against Nintendo's sales.

Who knows though.. it depends on how they advertize it, and if they get a good rip off for the Wii sports/fitness games.

This is the part where you and to an extent Typhoid lose me on, after 3 years, do people still think it is the controller that sells the system? Do you think, people will be like "Oh motion controls and its HD!" and move on?

Let's look at the facts
a)The PS3/Xbox 360 have ALWAYS offered more on paper than the Wii. Better graphics, better sound, better online interface, DVD/blu-ray support, chat, etc, etc

b) People are buying/playing a game that looks like this,
http://fallingsky.blogs.com/falling_sky/wii-sports-20061020011945307.jpg
Do you really think fancy graphics is the key to gaining that market?

c) Sony Move and to a certain extent Project Natal still can not replicate everything Nintendo does. Neither will be able to mimick Wii Fit based on current technology.

D)For all the crap Nintendo does wrong, what is the best selling online enabled game of this generation?

TheGame
03-12-2010, 03:40 PM
On a side note before I start... someone needs to delete whatever picture is stretching this thread out. It's hella annoying.

That's actually kind of the opposite of what I'm saying.

The PlayStation Move won't take off because it isn't required with games.

Let's say, do you think games like Uncharted 3, next Ratchet, Modnation will use Move as primary controls? Or do you think it will be given an option?

I think it will be given as an option, possibly. Just like the Analog stick was given as an option.


How do you not see how you prove my point?
The DualShock didn't become the standard until the PS2, and was lightly supported on the PSX, with rare games like Ape Escape taking full advantage of it.

I guess that depends on your definition of lightly supported. Pretty much all the games that came out for Psx after 98 supported it in some sense. All the games that could benifit from different levels of movement speed. Was it a requirement? No. Was it supported? Yup.

The Dual Shock ended up being the standard for the Psx in general. I think it's more "revisionist history" to say the controler without the sticks remained the standard.. Analog sticks didn't just become Psx's standard, it became an industry standard. And judging off of sales, something else might be becoming the industry standard now.

But who knows... If you agree that the wii mote could become the industry standard, then you look at it more like the Psx Analog stick then I do. If you think it can't become the industry standard, then you're somewhat in my ballpark of understanding how Nintendo tried to avoid direct competition with MS and Sony by offering something different.

The PlayStationMove is coming a year later, and is building itself into an even smaller niche because unlike the PSX controller to Dual Shock doesn't have the same layout so its not like you can make a game that uses the Move like a normal controller. And yes I know of SOCOM, but meant moving something like UC 2 or Killzone onto it.

That's true.

This is the part where you and to an extent Typhoid lose me on, after 3 years, do people still think it is the controller that sells the system? Do you think, people will be like "Oh motion controls and its HD!" and move on?

No, I honestly don't... don't think that they'll just say it's HD and move on. But you can't deny that the gimmick of the motion controls is what makes the console popular, because as you're about to say:

Let's look at the facts
a)The PS3/Xbox 360 have ALWAYS offered more on paper than the Wii. Better graphics, better sound, better online interface, DVD/blu-ray support, chat, etc, etc

And

b) People are buying/playing a game that looks like this,
http://fallingsky.blogs.com/falling_sky/wii-sports-20061020011945307.jpg

So..

Do you really think fancy graphics is the key to gaining that market?

No, this generation motion controls are... apparently. Because it's definently not graphics, or hardware quality. And it also can't be game quality based off of scores.. things are more simple now... right?

c) Sony Move and to a certain extent Project Natal still can not replicate everything Nintendo does. Neither will be able to mimick Wii Fit based on current technology.

That will be a harsh blow.

D)For all the crap Nintendo does wrong, what is the best selling online enabled game of this generation?

I don't know. And I don't care... I just know the average Joe who wants both what Wii offers and what Ps360 offers are going to be swayed more towards Ps360 opposed to buying two systems or just Wii after these controls come out...

But like I said in my last post, it depends on how they advertize it, and if they get a good rip off for the Wii sports/fitness games. I think if they can't minic at least the sports games, they will probably fail.

Typhoid
03-12-2010, 03:42 PM
I deleted the massive one.

BreakABone
03-12-2010, 05:11 PM
I think it will be given as an option, possibly. Just like the Analog stick was given as an option.

And really, we don't need to go any further than this. It is an OPTION, and only an option, and that is what has and will always hold back peripherals.

TheGame
03-12-2010, 06:37 PM
And really, we don't need to go any further than this. It is an OPTION, and only an option, and that is what has and will always hold back peripherals.

Yup.. Just depends on if you consider it to be a controller and the emergence of a new industry standard or not.

BreakABone
03-13-2010, 02:15 AM
Yup.. Just depends on if you consider it to be a controller and the emergence of a new industry standard or not.

Let me try and say this really, really slow.

It is a controller, no one will deny that, but it is also an add-on/peripheral, and even in best estimates, I see it selling under 20 million units over the lifetime.

It will NOT be a new industry standard, it won't even be the standard on the PS3, and that will the biggest problem with both this and Natal.

Typhoid
03-13-2010, 02:21 AM
It will NOT be a new industry standard, it won't even be the standard on the PS3, and that will the biggest problem with both this and Natal.


I'll disagree with you on that.

I mean, it's no secret that the PS3 and 360 are superior machines in every way to the Wii. And it's no secret that the Wii sells good to the target audience of kids, casual gamers and adults who don't like typical games.

However, I do think it will be the new standard.
Think about it from a company standpoint:

In adopting motion sensing add-ons to it's system, both Sony and Microsoft (Talking about Natal) are shanking Nintendo hardcore, because the one thing Nintendo had going for it that was different than the other systems - is now available on the two superior machines.

This will most likely force Nintendo to do something they haven't done in years - make a competative system technologically.

Because, I mean - what does Nintendo have technologically, that the other two don't, or won't within a year?

TheGame
03-13-2010, 08:50 AM
Let me try and say this really, really slow.

It is a controller, no one will deny that, but it is also an add-on/peripheral, and even in best estimates, I see it selling under 20 million units over the lifetime.

Under 20 million? Wow.. such a bold prediction on your part.

It will NOT be a new industry standard, it won't even be the standard on the PS3, and that will the biggest problem with both this and Natal.

I don't think so either (not this generation anyway). But I do think it will hurt Wii's sales, for every point your ignored.

TheGame
03-13-2010, 09:02 AM
Because, I mean - what does Nintendo have technologically, that the other two don't, or won't within a year?

Nothing. It will have the price point advantage, and that's it. And as I pointed out before, according to scores, it has the worst games. So again, as I said before.. if someone wants both the full Ps360 experience, and the full Wii one, but can only afford to buy one or the other (or doesn't want to buy both).. This controller increases the odds that they'd go for the Ps360.

Don't get me wrong though, the games that are supported by the devices will need to be decent.. and I think Wii sports is the real trump card Nintendo has... so they need to be able to rip it off to some extent.

BreakABone
03-13-2010, 11:54 AM
I just want to clarify since it seems difficult at times for people to see my opinion from any viewpoint but Nintendo's but I'm not debating the success of the PSEye/Natal over the Wii-mote, that won't happen.

I'm debating the stance of things that will hold the PSEye back from any mass market appeal, and just to re-state those points.

1) Complexion, in order to play a single PS Move game, you need at least one PS Move and one PS Eye, neither of which comes in the box.
2) You are already looking at 300 bucks for the console, and at least another 40 for the PS Eye, and the controller.
3) Multiple set-up, just looking at the launch games, some use single Move, some use 2, some use one and a subcontroller. In order to gain the full experience from every game, you need at least 3 controllers.
4) It won't feature many exclusive "hardcore" games, just look at SOCOM, one of their key games, and it features DualShock support, many people won't bother to try it.
5) It is coming 4 years into this console generation, hell it could turn into a 10 year cycle at this point, but I still think its too late to change the momentum.
6) It is coming the same time as the NATAL and much like PS3/360 they pretty much cannibalize the same marketshare.

So that's what I got so far, on the Sony fence/MS fence.

I'll disagree with you on that.

I mean, it's no secret that the PS3 and 360 are superior machines in every way to the Wii. And it's no secret that the Wii sells good to the target audience of kids, casual gamers and adults who don't like typical games.
It hasn't been a secret for the past 3 1/2 years.
It won't be a secret for the next 3 1/2 years.

I'm sure someone will pull some random numbers out, and I won't disagree that the Wii doesn't sell to different audiences, but has there been proof yet that they don't like typical games. I mean how is Wii Sports/Resort any different than a complition of Sports games? How are Mario Kart, New Super Mario Bros and Smash Bros multi million sellers? How does a game like RE 4, that you can already play on the console, able to move over a million copies?


In adopting motion sensing add-ons to it's system, both Sony and Microsoft (Talking about Natal) are shanking Nintendo hardcore, because the one thing Nintendo had going for it that was different than the other systems - is now available on the two superior machines.
I think people have put too much faith into Nintendo only selling on motion controls, and the value of graphics to your average consumer.

And quite frankly, what 3rd party support does Nintendo have to lose? What major franchise will convert Wii owners into PS3/360 lovers? I mean its not like they can brand anything Wii X or throw Mario into it.

Because, I mean - what does Nintendo have technologically, that the other two don't, or won't within a year?
At the end of the day, the balance board and I guess the Vitality Sensor. And I'm not saying that its a game changer just answering your question.



Under 20 million? Wow.. such a bold prediction on your part.

20 Million is being generous quite frankly. The way I see it, a typical console generation is about 5 years, this one is going to go a little longer, so we push it to 6-7 years.

By the time Natal/Move launch we are 4-5 years into this generation. So they have a span of about 2-3 years to sell. Now if we were to be VERY nice to both of them, and say they increase at a rate of a million sold per month (which would be a much faster adoption rate than the PS3 or the 360 achieved thus far), you are looking at a maximum of 36 million NATAL/Move products.

Which as it stands right now, would be more than the number of Ps3 sold worldwide, and about a 95% adoption rate on the 360.

You show me a peripheral that has done anywhere NEAR those numbers, and you can tell me if 20 milion is a bold prediction.


I don't think so either (not this generation anyway). But I do think it will hurt Wii's sales, for every point your ignored.
At this point the only thing that is going to hurt Wii sales is Nintendo itself. Wii sales will slow and that's natural, being in its 4th year, but I really don't see PS3/360 being much of a threat.

It reminds me when people said that once the PS3 came down in price, everyone would see what a joke Nintendo was. The PS3 came down in price and released a new model, and was able to outsell the Wii once, and about 30k units.

The 360 has bested it 4 times, 2 of them were the launch months.

Nintendo outside of the typical $50 dollar price drop, has really done nothing else to try and get new players. They still have options to bundle up Wii Sports Resort/WMP with the console, to drop a black or multi-colored Wii, or who knows maybe this mysteriously Wii HD.

Nothing. It will have the price point advantage, and that's it. And as I pointed out before, according to scores, it has the worst games. So again, as I said before.. if someone wants both the full Ps360 experience, and the full Wii one, but can only afford to buy one or the other (or doesn't want to buy both).. This controller increases the odds that they'd go for the Ps360.
The Wii has Nintendo, it always will have Nintendo.
Love them, hate them, nothing them. They are still hands down, the best developer of games in the world, I mean if you want, just check MetaCritic, no one releases the quantity and quality that they do.

And this has been the question that none of you have answered for quite some time, who was holding out on the HD experience and decided to settle on the Wii?

How many people do you know or do you think was holding out for Motion Controls but with HD graphics? How big of a market share do you expect that to be honestly?

TheGame
03-13-2010, 01:02 PM
BaBs... Here's where I think you have things confused:

Me and Typhoid do not think that the content offered FOR the new motion controls will slow down Wii sales, we think that the whole package will.

"if someone wants both the full Ps360 experience, and the full Wii one, but can only afford to buy one or the other (or doesn't want to buy both).. This controller increases the odds that they'd go for the Ps360."-TheGame

Ask youself, what is the full Ps360 experience. What are the first things that pop out to you about those systems over Wii. And ask yourself what is the full Wii experience.. what pops out to you about Wii first that the Ps360 can't even try to emulate?

And I know you don't want to be objective about it, and discuss Wii's low scoring simpleton games.. But that is the proof that Wii's controls plays a bigger role then it's game quality.. So if you're not going to discuss that, then we're not going to have an honest debate about it. And yes Wii has Nintendo, and I've grown to respect Nintendo's ability to create good games.. but Gamecube also had Nintendo, so having Nintendo wasn't and isn't enough alone.

BreakABone
03-13-2010, 01:36 PM
BaBs... Here's where I think you have things confused:

Me and Typhoid do not think that the content offered FOR the new motion controls will slow down Wii sales, we think that the whole package will.

"if someone wants both the full Ps360 experience, and the full Wii one, but can only afford to buy one or the other (or doesn't want to buy both).. This controller increases the odds that they'd go for the Ps360."-TheGame

Ask youself, what is the full Ps360 experience. What are the first things that pop out to you about those systems over Wii. And ask yourself what is the full Wii experience.. what pops out to you about Wii first that the Ps360 can't even try to emulate?

And I know you don't want to be objective about it, and discuss Wii's low scoring simpleton games.. But that is the proof that Wii's controls plays a bigger role then it's game quality.. So if you're not going to discuss that, then we're not going to have an honest debate about it. And yes Wii has Nintendo, and I've grown to respect Nintendo's ability to create good games.. but Gamecube also had Nintendo, so having Nintendo wasn't and isn't enough alone.

And I'll ask you time and time and time and time again, why hasn't the Ps360 experience taken off this generation?

Has it ever dawned on people, that people don't care about all the flash? I think people hold out graphical abilities as this gaming crux, but it has done very little.

If nothing else, its word of mouth and hype, that has helped move games. Why MW 2 has been able to achieve over sales of over 10 million, why Halo and GTA have achieved great success.

And you can discuss the Wii's low scoring simpleton games, and I guarantee you like 90% of them are 3rd party games, who do you think are going to make games for the Natal and the Move?

Hell, the Ps3 is already lining up ports of Wii games!

Motion controls have worn off a long time ago, if there were not compelling experiences, people wouldn't continue to invest money into it. Do you not think there are dozens of Wii sports knock-off on the Wii? Deca Sports, Summer Sports, Beach Party, etc, etc

And they hardly make a dent, you think Sports Champion will make a difference? As it stands right now, it doesn't come with the system nor does it come with the controller. So on top of having to buy all the crap necessary you also need to buy a game for proof of concept!

I dont want this thing to be a horrible failure, but it will be.
The folks holding out hope that perhaps Nintendo got lucky with the Wii, that the only thing it has going for it in the past 3 years is motion controls is... I'm just gonna be nice here and say is friggin retard and haven't paid attention to anything that has happened in the last 3 years.

TheGame
03-13-2010, 02:57 PM
And I'll ask you time and time and time and time again, why hasn't the Ps360 experience taken off this generation?

They haven't taken off? Last I checked Ps3 has sold around 35 million units, and 360 has sold around 40 million... compared to Wii's 67 million. To put this in perspective... Gamecube Sold 21 million and Xbox sold 24 million... compared to Ps2's 142 million.

Ps3.. the worst selling home console of this Gen, has outsold N64 already.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles

Ps3 and X360 are FAR from failures. This is something I see Bond trying to tell you over and over.

And I don't get why you refuse to answer why you think Wii won. You keep going on the offensive and pointing out that the other two consoles are failures (which is factually incorrect). I mean seriously, what does Wii have that Gamecube, Xbox, Ps3, and 360 doesn't have?? Or what Ps2/Ps1 did have??

BreakABone
03-13-2010, 03:02 PM
They haven't taken off? Last I checked Ps3 has sold around 35 million units, and 360 has sold around 40 million... compared to Wii's 67 million. To put this in perspective... Gamecube Sold 21 million and Xbox sold 24 million... compared to Ps2's 142 million.

Ps3.. the worst selling home console of this Gen, has outsold N64 already.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles

Ps3 and X360 are FAR from failures. This is something I see Bond trying to tell you over and over.

And I don't get why you refuse to answer why you think Wii won. You keep going on the offensive and pointing out that the other two consoles are failures (which is factually incorrect). I mean seriously, what does Wii have that Gamecube, Xbox, Ps3, and 360 doesn't have?? Or what Ps2/Ps1 did have??

I'll answer your question if you do me one favor.

In this thread, in any thread, find where I said that the 360/PS3 are failures, please for all that is holy, find me a quote where I state that they are failures.

TheGame
03-13-2010, 03:07 PM
I'll answer your question if you do me one favor.

In this thread, in any thread, find where I said that the 360/PS3 are failures, please for all that is holy, find me a quote where I state that they are failures.

What did I just quote in my last post? You don't directly say it.. but you always want the discussion to be about what Sony and Microsoft did wrong opposed to what Nintendo did right.

BreakABone
03-13-2010, 03:25 PM
What did I just quote in my last post? You don't directly say it.. but you always want the discussion to be about what Sony and Microsoft did wrong opposed to what Nintendo did right.

YOu are the most bone-headed, and retarded person I've had the honor to discuss anything with.

You and Typhoid are the ones who keep bringing up this PS360 experience, and how everyone will hop onto this PS360 experience.

And its been going on for 3-4 years, yes it sold better than most othr consoles, but it isn't lighting the world on fire. Especially being that one is the sequel to the best selling console of all time.

You folks act like this motion controller will finally change the world. That every single person who bought a Wii will find out that they have been ripped off, that they are playing subpar games with terrible graphics and not true HD/surround sound.

And its bullshit, plain and simple. People are so hung up with graphics here, that it hurts them to think that not everyone cares about it. How many hD games have come and gone and been the next best thing? How many do you think people will care about in a year? Two years? Next generation?

And let's say people do discover this, what makes you think, since you and Typhoid are so HUGE on the price difference, that buying a more expensive console on top of being add-ons, will make it a more appealing product?

Really... any type of numbers that show...

Hell if you want an example, blu-rays have been on the market for half a decade, HDTV peneration is at about 50% in the country, and let they are still outsold by DVDs like 3:1.

And as I tried and tried before, when I make this about the history of peripherals on its own, you go back to comparing it to the Wii.

So I'll pose this question, without some hypothetical bullshit you pull out of your ass, what makes you think that the PlayStation Move has a chance to succeed? And don't go on about the Dualshock becoming a standard because as I pointed out, that didn't happen until the PS2, hell even the Dreamcast released with a single analog stick.

TheGame
03-13-2010, 03:46 PM
YOu are the most bone-headed, and retarded person I've had the honor to discuss anything with.

Thanks.

-EDIT-

As for the rest of your post.. I answered every question here: http://www.gametavern.net/forums/showpost.php?p=264846&postcount=19

And as typhoid is about to point out, nobody says everyone will up and abandon Wii for the Ps360. It's just that it will swing sales for people who want both.

Typhoid
03-13-2010, 03:59 PM
You folks act like this motion controller will finally change the world. That every single person who bought a Wii will find out that they have been ripped off, that they are playing subpar games with terrible graphics and not true HD/surround sound.

And its bullshit, plain and simple. People are so hung up with graphics here, that it hurts them to think that not everyone cares about it.

That's not what I - and I assume 'we' - are saying at all.


I'll spell it out like this, imagine the future, if you will.


There is the Wii. Only a gaming system. Has motion control games. 150 dollars.
There is the PS3. Game system, dvd/cd/blu ray player, photo/music video sharer, HD capable from purchase, and has motion control games. 250 dollars.
There is the 360. Game system, dvd/cd player, music storage device, HD capable from purchase, largest online network for gaming, and has motion control games. 250 dollars.

Which gives the best overall value?

I'm not talking about now, which is what you need to understand.
I even went out of my way to say in a post that "This will force Nintendo in the future to actually make a competitive machine" - considering Sony and Microsoft will have taken everything away from the Wii that made it unique.

Will the Wii still get games, and sell units? Of course. Who the fuck here said Nintendo would shut down because of this? Nobody.

manasecret
03-13-2010, 05:54 PM
I gotta agree with Xantar, BaB, and history and say it's an add-on peripheral and therefore will fail. I think things will be far more interesting in the next generation of consoles, which I predict will begin in 2012. I think it will be akin to the graphics going from the PSX/N64 era to the PS2/Xbox/GCN era, with motion controls being perfected by all consoles. Who will dominate then is the real question. Wii has already "won" this generation.

As far as whether _I_ will buy it, as soon as the PS3 Move has good games, I will be interested. I like shiny graphics as much as the rest of us, but I couldn't give two shits if the games are terrible. As of now, the impressions are that the games (with the possible exception of Move Party) don't live up to Wii standards of good motion games.

Xantar
03-13-2010, 07:13 PM
There is the Wii. Only a gaming system. Has motion control games. 150 dollars.
There is the PS3. Game system, dvd/cd/blu ray player, photo/music video sharer, HD capable from purchase, and has motion control games. 250 dollars.
There is the 360. Game system, dvd/cd player, music storage device, HD capable from purchase, largest online network for gaming, and has motion control games. 250 dollars.

Which gives the best overall value?

I'm not talking about now, which is what you need to understand.
I even went out of my way to say in a post that "This will force Nintendo in the future to actually make a competitive machine" - considering Sony and Microsoft will have taken everything away from the Wii that made it unique.

This makes absolutely no sense. If you're not talking about "now," then when the hell are you talking about? Sony and Microsoft are releasing Move and Natal this year because they want it to sell well this year. It's not because they are trying to future-proof their consoles against Nintendo's next console. Yes, Nintendo is probably going to release a console with HD capability next time. And it will probably have improved motion control. I'm pretty sure they were going to do that anyway.

The only reasonable reading I can give you is that you think Sony and Microsoft are test driving motion control technologies so that they can use them in the PS4 and the Xbox 4Pi. But that would be stupid. Developing this kind of technology costs money, and when Move and Natal fail, Sony and Microsoft will be entering the next generation with a reputation for producing a copycat gimmick that didn't catch on. Just think of what IGN is going to say when the PS4 launches with a motion controller built in: "Sony has motion control in their machine. Let's hope it does better than the Move did."

Sony and Microsoft want their motion control devices to succeed this year. And the problem is they won't, no matter how neat-o you think they are.

BreakABone
03-14-2010, 03:35 AM
Thanks.

-EDIT-

As for the rest of your post.. I answered every question here: http://www.gametavern.net/forums/showpost.php?p=264846&postcount=19

And as typhoid is about to point out, nobody says everyone will up and abandon Wii for the Ps360. It's just that it will swing sales for people who want both.
But that's exactly what you are saying, hell its what your last line is saying... of it won't abandon the Wii, people will just suport the Ps360 instead... how is that different?

That's not what I - and I assume 'we' - are saying at all.


I'll spell it out like this, imagine the future, if you will.


There is the Wii. Only a gaming system. Has motion control games. 150 dollars.
There is the PS3. Game system, dvd/cd/blu ray player, photo/music video sharer, HD capable from purchase, and has motion control games. 250 dollars.
There is the 360. Game system, dvd/cd player, music storage device, HD capable from purchase, largest online network for gaming, and has motion control games. 250 dollars.

Which gives the best overall value?

I'm not talking about now, which is what you need to understand.
I even went out of my way to say in a post that "This will force Nintendo in the future to actually make a competitive machine" - considering Sony and Microsoft will have taken everything away from the Wii that made it unique.

Will the Wii still get games, and sell units? Of course. Who the fuck here said Nintendo would shut down because of this? Nobody.

See this is one of those rare discussion, where extended discussion leads to understanding.

Future-proofing their console is fine, hell I predicted like any intelligent person 3 years ago that motion controls will be the future, no one ever said that it had to be the Wii-mote specificially.

~Edit~
I think this article gets to the heart of my views
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/moving-on-article

TheGame
03-14-2010, 04:50 PM
But that's exactly what you are saying, hell its what your last line is saying... of it won't abandon the Wii, people will just suport the Ps360 instead... how is that different?

Seriously? And you call me a retard??

What I'm saying is.. that if a person wants a Wii and a Ps360, and can only afford one or the other.. the addition of motion controls to the Ps360 will increase the odds that they'd pick a Ps360 over a Wii.

Let me say it again, since I've repeated myself so many times, maybe saying it twice in one post might help. And I'll even bold the key words.

What I'm saying is.. that if a person wants a Wii and a Ps360, and can only afford one or the other.. the addition of motion controls to the Ps360 will increase the odds that they'd pick a Ps360 over a Wii.

Did I say anywhere in that line that Wii will be abandoned? No.
Did I say people will stop buying Wiis? No.
Did I say people will take their previously owned Wiis and toss them in a trash can? No.
Did I say Wii is obsolete? No.
Did I say people will no longer want Wiis? No.

So to quote your old post:

You folks act like this motion controller will finally change the world. That every single person who bought a Wii will find out that they have been ripped off, that they are playing subpar games with terrible graphics and not true HD/surround sound.

I never said anything even close to this. Not even REMOTELY close.

TheGame
03-14-2010, 05:03 PM
And just for fun...

What I'm saying is.. that if a person wants a Wii and a Ps360, and can only afford one or the other.. the addition of motion controls to the Ps360 will increase the odds that they'd pick a Ps360 over a Wii.

http://www.gametavern.net/forums/showpost.php?p=264982&postcount=39

And as typhoid is about to point out, nobody says everyone will up and abandon Wii for the Ps360. It's just that it will swing sales for people who want both.

http://www.gametavern.net/forums/showpost.php?p=264903&postcount=34

So again, as I said before.. if someone wants both the full Ps360 experience, and the full Wii one, but can only afford to buy one or the other (or doesn't want to buy both).. This controller increases the odds that they'd go for the Ps360.

http://www.gametavern.net/forums/showpost.php?p=264886&postcount=26

I just know the average Joe who wants both what Wii offers and what Ps360 offers are going to be swayed more towards Ps360 opposed to buying two systems or just Wii after these controls come out...

http://www.gametavern.net/forums/showpost.php?p=264846&postcount=19

true, it requires more pieces of equipment, and more money.. but in the end, if someone likes both what the Ps3/360 offer and what the Wii offers, knowing that Sony offers the same gimmick (and more), might play against Nintendo's sales.

http://www.gametavern.net/forums/showpost.php?p=264838&postcount=17

If you don't understand what I'm saying, I can't help you.

BreakABone
03-14-2010, 05:14 PM
Justin, here's the thing, and maybe you have some source I don't know about, but after 4 years, how many people do you think are REALLY on the fence about buying a Wii, 360 or PS3?

This is what neither of you have been able to prove or disprove. You talk as if there is a collective of people, who are just waiting for the PS360 to gain motion controls, and there is a group of people who are waiting on an HD-enabled Wii.

But you know all of this talk is going no where fast, so I'll just put it out there for you and Typhoid and anyone else, but do any of you intend to actually pick up the Move?

And here's another piece wrote on another forum,
I think I can finally articulate the problem that Move will have to overcome.

From the "casual" gamer standpoint, it doesn't really offer much that the Wii doesn't. I mean say its imprecise or inaccurate but for the average joe it hasn't made a difference in the last 4 years.

For the "hardcore" gamer standpoint, I see very few "hardcore" games that will use Move as an exclusive means of control so as a consumer why would I buy 3 pieces of hardware to play Move when it works pretty well with my DualShock/Sixaxis? It offers a more accurate means of control, but the one I have now works just fine as well.

I'm sure e3 may remove those doubts.

Typhoid
03-15-2010, 02:17 AM
I don't know about, but after 4 years, how many people do you think are REALLY on the fence about buying a Wii, 360 or PS3?


4 years ago the 360 didnt have the promise of the Natal, the PS3 didn't have a motion controller, and BLu Ray wasn't really off the ground as it is now.

This is what neither of you have been able to prove or disprove. You talk as if there is a collective of people, who are just waiting for the PS360 to gain motion controls, and there is a group of people who are waiting on an HD-enabled Wii.


False.
We are saying what if there are people who don't have any of these systems yet. Not that they were waiting for something specific, just that there MAY BE people on this planet who haven't been able to afford a system. Are we saying the motion controller is the breaking point? Fuck no. We're saying if these people who don't have systems yet want a system, Sony and Microsoft have taken away the only technological advantage the Wii had.

That. Is. What. We. Are. Saying.

BreakABone
03-15-2010, 01:19 PM
Okay, I think Typhoid and I came to somewhat of an understanding over MSN, if not, I really don't want to continue down that road. My issue here, and its what I'm going back to is getting the Move into households/selling it.

Xantar
03-15-2010, 04:34 PM
False.
We are saying what if there are people who don't have any of these systems yet. Not that they were waiting for something specific, just that there MAY BE people on this planet who haven't been able to afford a system. Are we saying the motion controller is the breaking point? Fuck no. We're saying if these people who don't have systems yet want a system, Sony and Microsoft have taken away the only technological advantage the Wii had.

That. Is. What. We. Are. Saying.

So...we can all agree Sony Move is going to fail, right? Is anybody going to bother actually arguing my point?

KillerGremlin
03-15-2010, 11:23 PM
Holy shit people, we need a group hug.

For the record I think the anal wand and Natal are going to fail...and those games for Sony look like shit. I thought the Wii had some crap on it but damn.

Angrist
03-16-2010, 10:54 AM
Ok this is the first time I had time to watch the 'Move-ies.'
What can I say? The technology looks better than the Wii's. Which shouldn't be surprising with a 4 year's difference.

The software though... bleh. Shovelware BUT WITH GRAPHICS THIS TIME!!

I don't think these expansions will catch on. The Wii doesn't sell because of motion controls anymore, it sells because of its reputation. People won't want a copy-cat, they want the real deal. They want Miis, Wii Sports, white plastic.

TheGame
03-17-2010, 02:26 PM
So...we can all agree Sony Move is going to fail, right? Is anybody going to bother actually arguing my point?

Depends, what would you consider failure? How many sales would be a failure, how many would be questionable, and how many sales would be a sucsess? Lets be realistic here.

Typhoid
03-17-2010, 02:29 PM
Depends, what would you consider failure? How many sales would be a failure, how many would be questionable, and how many sales would be a sucsess? Lets be realistic here.

Obviously if it doesn't surpass the Wii in sales it's a complete and utter failure.

TheGame
03-17-2010, 02:36 PM
Obviously if it doesn't surpass the Wii in sales it's a complete and utter failure.

If that's what's considered failure.. then I would bet every paycheck I have for the rest of the year that it'll fail. :lol:

Xantar
03-17-2010, 02:53 PM
Depends, what would you consider failure? How many sales would be a failure, how many would be questionable, and how many sales would be a sucsess? Lets be realistic here.

You tell me. Do you think 20% uptake would be a success? Because that's about the best case scenario.

Or instead of sales, let's try this: if after a year publishers decide that it's not worth giving more than token support to Move, and if games designed to use Move slow down to a trickle of gimmick shovelware, would you consider that a success? Because that's what's going to happen.

TheGame
03-17-2010, 03:06 PM
You tell me. Do you think 20% uptake would be a success? Because that's about the best case scenario.

Or instead of sales, let's try this: if after a year publishers decide that it's not worth giving more than token support to Move, and if games designed to use Move slow down to a trickle of gimmick shovelware, would you consider that a success? Because that's what's going to happen.

Hey I asked first!

You tell me.. how many sales would it have to have for you to be like "wow I was wrong, it succeeded". If 20% uptake is your definition of sucsess, then I agree it will fail. 20% would mean it's have to sell around 7 million.

-EDIT-

And in case I read it wrong.. are you saying that if it continues to get support for more then a year it is a sucsess? I don't know, I'm trying not to put words in your mouth. How many sales and how long would it have to be supported for it to be a sucsess in your eyes?

Typhoid
03-17-2010, 03:07 PM
You tell me. Do you think 20% uptake would be a success? Because that's about the best case scenario.

Or instead of sales, let's try this: if after a year publishers decide that it's not worth giving more than token support to Move, and if games designed to use Move slow down to a trickle of gimmick shovelware, would you consider that a success? Because that's what's going to happen.

You mean sort of how no Wii really game successfully uses motion control aside from Wii Sports resort and maybe 10 other games, and the games released all have the option for GC controllers because that's what people would rather use?

BreakABone
03-17-2010, 03:16 PM
You mean sort of how no Wii really game successfully uses motion control aside from Wii Sports resort and maybe 10 other games, and the games released all have the option for GC controllers because that's what people would rather use?

The first is only an opinion, which I disagree with.

The second is factually wrong, as there are only 40+ Wii games that offer any type of GameCube controller support, which is a very tiny %.

And here's the real kicker, to me anyhow, that is exactly why the Move will fail. The Cube controller is offered ONLY as an option in most of those games, and you claim people prefer it, now imagine the reverse. Where the "normal" controller is the standard one, and the motion one is offered as an option. How many developers will support it? How many will even come up with those "10 other Wii games" as you say.

And that's why the Move will fail, not just because its an add-on, but because from a business standpoint and from a gamer's standpoint, it doesn't make sense.

Xantar
03-17-2010, 03:18 PM
Hey I asked first!

You tell me.. how many sales would it have to have for you to be like "wow I was wrong, it succeeded". If 20% uptake is your definition of sucsess, then I agree it will fail. 20% would mean it's have to sell around 7 million.

-EDIT-

And in case I read it wrong.. are you saying that if it continues to get support for more then a year it is a sucsess? I don't know, I'm trying not to put words in your mouth. How many sales and how long would it have to be supported for it to be a sucsess in your eyes?

I think 20% by any standard is a failure. And I think the Move will be lucky if it even reaches that high. And neither you nor Typhoid have given any solid evidence or arguments to tell me why it will do any better than that.

I think Move will be a success when it's widely seen to be essential that every major game released on the PS3 must use it, whether that happens next year or three years from now. The reason I think Move will fail is because I think that will never happen. The only chance is for Sony to include Move 2 on the PS4. But right now, Move is going to fail by any reasonable standard you care to use.

Also, fix your damn spell check. Seeing "sucsess" repeatedly is getting on my nerves.

You mean sort of how no Wii really game successfully uses motion control aside from Wii Sports resort and maybe 10 other games, and the games released all have the option for GC controllers because that's what people would rather use?

Nice try trolling me. And now that I know you can't even count, do you want to try to convince me that Sony Move will be used by even 20% of PS3 owners?

Typhoid
03-17-2010, 03:20 PM
The second is factually wrong, as there are only 40+ Wii games that offer any type of GameCube controller support, which is a very tiny %.

I meant to put 'prefer' in there.

Of the games that use motion control, please post a long list of games that are considered "Awesome games to have for motion control" that aren't the following:

Wii Sports/Resort
Any game with 'Wii' in the name
Mario Kart/Mario
Madworld

And of course there is a very tiny percentage of games that actually offer GC support. There are hundreds of nameless and faceless boxes of crap for the Wii that are made for toddlers. If you flood the market with crap, it will obviously change the ratios.

And that's why the Move will fail, not just because its an add-on, but because from a business standpoint and from a gamer's standpoint, it doesn't make sense.

This is what I don't get. This view.

Wii Motion Control = great idea! Brilliant! Plan the parade route!
Sony Motion Control/Natal = Terrible idea. Won't work. Epic failure.


Edit:

Nice try trolling me. And now that I know you can't even count, do you want to try to convince me that Sony Move will be used by even 20% of PS3 owners?

Let's hold that tongue there, chap.

As I said to Bab, I meant to stick 'prefer' in there.
So it would be : "Of the games that are successful and use motion control (obviously aside from Mario Galaxy) how many opt for the GC controllers instead of Motion Support?"

Do you play Smash Bros with the wiimote? I, nor anyone I know sure doesn't. Do you use the Wiimote for racing on Mario Kart? I, nor anyone I know sure doesn't.

Thus was my point.

And neither you nor Typhoid have given any solid evidence or arguments to tell me why it will do any better than that.

And you haven't given any solid evidence of why it will fail miserably.
This goes both ways.

TheGame
03-17-2010, 03:26 PM
I think 20% by any standard is a failure. And I think the Move will be lucky if it even reaches that high. And neither you nor Typhoid have given any solid evidence or arguments to tell me why it will do any better than that.

I don't believe 20% would be a failure, but I also don't think it will reach 20%. So my your definition, I think that it will fail also. So we're in agreement on that much.

I think Move will be a success when it's widely seen to be essential that every major game released on the PS3 must use it, whether that happens next year or three years from now. The reason I think Move will fail is because I think that will never happen.

I don't think that will ever happen, but I also think that isn't the "goal".

Typhoid
03-17-2010, 03:28 PM
I think Move will be a success when it's widely seen to be essential that every major game released on the PS3 must use it, whether that happens next year or three years from now. The reason I think Move will fail is because I think that will never happen.

What a load of shit.
Either you're actually trying to play stupid to get people angry, or it's just happening on it's own.


So in that sense the Wii is a total failure, because not every game strictly uses Motion Control.

TheGame
03-17-2010, 03:36 PM
What a load of shit.
Either you're actually trying to play stupid to get people angry, or it's just happening on it's own.

So in that sense the Wii is a total failure, because not every game strictly uses Motion Control.

He's not saying that every game would need it.. just that every game would have some type of use for it. Like an option to play with it. I think a lot more games will support it then one would think. It wouldn't be hard for them to mock the controls for the sports game (for example) as an option.

Especially if Sony gives some incentive to do so. (by incentive, I mean money)

But I agree, that's setting expectations too high.. and that's not going to happen.

Xantar
03-17-2010, 03:36 PM
I meant to put 'prefer' in there.


And you haven't given any solid evidence of why it will fail miserably.
This goes both ways.

Really? You didn't see my other posts in this very thread explaining why the Move is going to fail? Are you by any chance functionally illiterate? Because, I mean, I'm sorry if you are. That's a terrible condition to have.

Otherwise, maybe you should go back and look again.

Oh by the way, I do in fact play Smash Bros with the Wiimote/Nunchuk combo. I played in BAB's tournament that way. I forget who I was playing against, but I don't think I did too badly. Nonetheless, that's neither here nor there.

What a load of shit.
Either you're actually trying to play stupid to get people angry, or it's just happening on it's own.


So in that sense the Wii is a total failure, because not every game strictly uses Motion Control.

First of all, the word "major" is key here. Again, I'm sorry if you're actually functionally illiterate, but I'm working on the assumption that you have a ninth grade education at the very least.

Also, the Wiimote is not an add-on to the Wii. Move, on the other hand, is. It has a much higher goal to reach before it can be considered a success.

Tell you what, though: you tell me what your standard is for Move to be considered a success or a failure. I guarantee Move will not meet it. You can save this post and come back to it a year from now if you like.

Typhoid
03-17-2010, 03:45 PM
Really? You didn't see my other posts in this very thread explaining why the Move is going to fail? Are you by any chance functionally illiterate? Because, I mean, I'm sorry if you are. That's a terrible condition to have.

Otherwise, maybe you should go back and look again.

You're really filling the void well, aren't you?
So because you say something, that makes it true?
Tell me, when will the world end?
When will the big earthquake in Vancouver happen?
I mean, you can clearly tell me something that hasnt happened yet will do horribly based on opinion alone, so I'd like to know these other things, too.
That would really help me out, thanks.

I find it hilarious that when you give an opinion of why something will do bad - it's factual. When me or Game do it, it's wrong - and we're not reading things properly and are completely illiterate.
Stop the dick waving contest. Nobody cares.
We're a small forum and there's no need to act like a fucking child on the internet. It's possible to have a conversation without talking down to other people. I hope for the sake of people you know in real life that you're well aware of that.
See, I can do it too. It clearly doesn't take someone literate or competent.

Maybe I'll chalk it up to you being a child.
Maybe I can chalk it up to some type of brain injury you got when your father was beating your mother during pregnancy.
Maybe you have a small penis and compensate for it by telling other people over the internet that they aren't smart because their opinion of a video game is different than yours.
I wish we were all as awesome and tough as you are.
See what I mean - conversation with insults gets nowhere.
Let it the fuck go.

Xantar
03-17-2010, 03:50 PM
Ok fine, here it is for the third time.

Sony Move is an add-on peripheral.

In all the history of videogames, an add-on has never caught on.

As you would have figured out if you had read my past posts. Manasecret got it. Angrist got it. Justin got it. Why can't you?

Typhoid
03-17-2010, 03:57 PM
Ok fine, here it is for the third time.

Sony Move is an add-on peripheral.

In all the history of videogames, an add-on has never caught on.

As you would have figured out if you had read my past posts. Manasecret got it. Angrist got it. Justin got it. Why can't you?


If I recall Playstation was spawned as an add-on of the SNES.
I wonder how that company is doing now. :ohreilly:


My point is this:

Just because one hasn't caught on in the past, doesn't mean it will never happen.
Will it happen now? I don't know. I'm not clairvoyant. And frankly I have no stake in the company so I don't care.

What I've been saying is this is taking away the single thing that made the Wii unique. Aside from titles of Mario and Zelda and various "____ Wii" games, after the SMC and Natal are released, Nintendo will be an inferior machine.

Will it still sell? Of course it will.

But Sony and Microsoft have added 2 more options on the market, despite being add-ons.
Before if you wanted to get your kid some motion control thing, you'd HAVE to get the Wii, even if your kid somehow has a PS3 and a 360.

So instead of getting an entirely new system, they can just get one of the add-ons.

You'd (general, not specific you) be insane to think that Sony won't make Wii-esque games to ride the coattails of the popularity of casual gaming, which then just blurs the lines a little more.

Will it catch on with a flaming heat never seen before? Of course not.
But will the motion controller and Natal completely fall by the wayside? Fuck no, that's the 'wave of the future' as it is.

If anything all this does is make the market more competative, and force companies to actually make good games that use motion control because there is more than 1 option, so it's not a sure-fire sell anymore.

BreakABone
03-17-2010, 04:02 PM
As a note, can we calm down on the personal insults. Yes, I'm guilty of it as well, but I guess what happens when people have somewhat of a passion of what talking about.

I meant to put 'prefer' in there.

Of the games that use motion control, please post a long list of games that are considered "Awesome games to have for motion control" that aren't the following:

Wii Sports/Resort
Any game with 'Wii' in the name
Mario Kart/Mario
Madworld

And of course there is a very tiny percentage of games that actually offer GC support. There are hundreds of nameless and faceless boxes of crap for the Wii that are made for toddlers. If you flood the market with crap, it will obviously change the ratios.

Well now you are just limiting things.
But let's see from what I've played
No More Heroes 1/2
Medal of Honor Heroes 2
The Conduit (you said where the controls are better, not necessarily a great game)
World of Goo
Swords and Soldiers
Lost Winds
Metroid Prime Trilogy/Corruption
House of the Dead: Overkill
Tiger Woods
Boom Blox/Boom Blox Party
Rayman Raving Rabbids
EA Sports Active

This is what I don't get. This view.

Wii Motion Control = great idea! Brilliant! Plan the parade route!
Sony Motion Control/Natal = Terrible idea. Won't work. Epic failure.

This is where comprehension comes in.

I have never said that Move/Natal are terrible ideas, I mean not to my knowledge, sure someone can dig up an old quote.

I don't think Move/Natal are terrible ideas

I don't think they won't work

I do think that they have to overcome that hurdle the Wii is built on motion, the controller is given as an option in few games

As you say, everyone you knows prefers the controller, how would it be different w/ the Natal/Move?


In terms of success/failure for Move/Natal, as much as I follow the industry, I'm not really sure which measurement is suitable. I mean the devices will sell, there's no question about that, and there will be games, but it won't topple the world, I guess.

Here are the basic troubles that Natal/Move has to overcome
1) Developer's support, right now the 360 and Ps3 sit at around 39 and 31 million consoles sold apiece, why would you negate that HUGE pool of gamers for a device that currently has 0 users.

2) Gamer's support
As Typhoid pointed out, he prefers his games with a normal controller, I'm sure there are a TON of gamers who follow that, and if not, there's always the "if it isn't broken why fix mentality" I mean I get along perfectly fine with my Sixaxis and Xbox controller. I don't see a need to invest in more hardware when I can play pretty much what I want now.

On the other end of the spectrum, the so-called "casual" gamers have made the Wii their home. As they have shown or at least evidence would point towards, they don't care much for graphics, and decent online implementations is good enough for them, so it really negates any advantages that they other two would have in converting them.

3) Time frame, both of these are coming out late in their respective consoles life-span. Honestly, the story of this generation has been written, and I don't see much changing.

4) Games
At the end of the day, what it comes down to.
And I don't know how to phrase this, but most games have their audiences by now, a new Metal Gear or Final Fantasy or Halo or Resistance or Uncharted or Gears or Fable with motion controls really would help shift focus, as those games have their audiences and you would only be grabbing a small subset of them with it.
Casual game market is pretty much cornered between the Wii and the PC. So you may get some stragglers, but not much else.

Xantar
03-17-2010, 04:03 PM
As a note, can we calm down on the personal insults. Yes, I'm guilty of it as well, but I guess what happens when people have somewhat of a passion of what talking about.

It's not my fault that Typhoid is incapable of reading and understanding past posts in this thread. If you have a problem with my pointing that out, ban me.

Anyway, once again, Typhoid misses the point, refuses to provide any evidence or a semblance of an argument, and then goes off on a tangent.

I rest my case.

Typhoid
03-17-2010, 04:06 PM
It's not my fault that Typhoid is incapable of reading and understanding past posts in this thread. If you have a problem with my pointing that out, ban me.

Anyway, once again, Typhoid misses the point, refuses to provide any evidence or a semblance of an argument, and then goes off on a tangent.

I rest my case.

Back to the insults, eh?
Well at least you lasted a solid 1 post.
I'm proud of you.

.....How is stating my point a tangent?

That's been my point the entire time.
My point has never been the success, nor the failure.

Typhoid
03-17-2010, 04:12 PM
Sorry Xantar, I concede.
You know far more about Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft than I - a mere pleb can ever hope to imagine.

How I manage to type words when I'm randomly smacking the keyboard with my fists amazes even I.

Hell, I'm even amazed I remember to breathe with such an inferior intellect and such a smaller penis than a man as great as you.


It's the internet. Get over yourself.
Reply if your massive throbbing cock feels the need - but I won't read it.
And in lieu of 'abusing my moderator powers', I'm not locking the thread - since I know you probably won't be able to resist posting back to this despite the fact I'm not going to read it.

Xantar
03-17-2010, 04:15 PM
Back to the insults, eh?


That's been my point the entire time.
My point has never been the success, nor the failure.

Then you never had any point to make to me. The only point I was trying to make -- the ONLY one -- was this

So...we can all agree Sony Move is going to fail, right? Is anybody going to bother actually arguing my point?

That's it. Whatever argument you have going on with BAB or anybody else is tangential because the only thing I was trying to say was that from the point of view of sales, business or any other standard you choose, Move is going to fail. It's not going to sell. Most people are not going to buy it. I'm sorry you decided to read way more into it than was actually right there on the screen, but that wasn't my problem.

TheGame
03-17-2010, 04:20 PM
Tell you what, though: you tell me what your standard is for Move to be considered a success or a failure. I guarantee Move will not meet it. You can save this post and come back to it a year from now if you like.

I look at the move like the original Xbox.. Xbox got out sold 5:1 by Ps2, and did not turn a profit. But I still consider it a sucsess. Why? Because it did what M$ wanted it to do, get their foot in the door of the gaming industry, and kept enough support to hold the system up for 4 years.

The Ps360 motion controls are the same way. It's a gamble. I'm sure Microsoft and Sony are well versed in the history of the gaming industry, and they know that these add-ons are not going to become something that's essential for the system..

With that said, for me there's a LOT of grey area as far as sucsess and failure.

I'd say if the motion controls sell less then 2 million, then it's a failure without question. Anything more, then it's sucsess will be defined by how much the controls are supported and how long, and if there's some type of swing in month to month sales of Ps360s vs Wii. I think having the option of the controls could impact sales more then the unit will sell itself.

So I'm in the same boat if you don't think these motion controls will be the next big thing.. but I do think they could swing some sales, and that there's a good chance that Sony and Microsoft set realistic expectations for these units.

manasecret
03-17-2010, 04:39 PM
There are two ways to succeed or fail here -- 1. In sales/profitibility, and 2. What Game touched on, future success, or PS4 and Xbox720 success.

In terms of sales/profitability, I think almost everyone agrees that they will fail miserably. Off the top of my head, I would guess 2-4 million sold each over the next 2-3 years.

But in terms of future success, I think releasing the Move and Natal now are probably the best decision. Sony and MS can get their feet wet with an add-on that will last a couple years at most, and work out any kinks before they release an entire new system that they will have to work with for some 10 years. As they say, every failure is a success in some way, since at the very least you have learned lessons along the way that will help you in the future.

thatmariolover
03-17-2010, 04:48 PM
Well, it's not just the fact that it's a peripheral that will make it more difficult. It's the fact that it's an expensive perpipheral. The last blurb I read put the starter kit at $100.

I personally doubt Sony can market it, but I've seen stranger things happen.

BreakABone
03-17-2010, 05:02 PM
There are two ways to succeed or fail here -- 1. In sales/profitibility, and 2. What Game touched on, future success, or PS4 and Xbox720 success.

In terms of sales/profitability, I think almost everyone agrees that they will fail miserably. Off the top of my head, I would guess 2-4 million sold each over the next 2-3 years.

But in terms of future success, I think releasing the Move and Natal now are probably the best decision. Sony and MS can get their feet wet with an add-on that will last a couple years at most, and work out any kinks before they release an entire new system that they will have to work with for some 10 years. As they say, every failure is a success in some way, since at the very least you have learned lessons along the way that will help you in the future.
I guess I'll play Devil's Advocate here since this isn't a pro/anti-Nintendo thread ;)

But on the flip side, which few people are looking at I guess, and it may just be a minor point, but Sony and Microsoft can both find that maybe motion controls don't work for them.

I mean motion controls has a bad rep as it is from all the shovelware on the Wii, and if they find that many 3rd parties won't support it or they may not sell well, it could be like the EyeToy from last gen where its out there, but its really low key and under the table.

Again, its a minor thought, but could happen.

On a somewhat happier note,

<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/w0puP8nrIU8&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/w0puP8nrIU8&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

I love these PS3 commercials so much. :lol:

Typhoid
03-17-2010, 05:05 PM
Well, it's not just the fact that it's a peripheral that will make it more difficult. It's the fact that it's an expensive perpipheral. The last blurb I read put the starter kit at $100.

I personally doubt Sony can market it, but I've seen stranger things happen.

That's launch price though.
Everything is more expensive at launch...typically.
However, I don't find $100 too bad. When it comes out, I'll buy it.
A Wii is what, 130 bucks? I bought that and I never play it.
Considering games are 65-80 bucks these days, 100 isn't really a huge deal.


The reason I like the move, as I've been talking to Bab about; is that it looks really good. Game-wise. There is potential for really visually pleasing FPS', that are fun at the same time where you're not just twiddling your thumbs.
And it also has potential for more casual games that don't look like they're intended for 4 year olds.

Lots of families have a PS3 already because of the built in blu-ray, and I don't think it's a stretch to think that they'd spend an extra 100 bucks to entertain their 6-10 year old kids. Same as I don't think it's a stretch that a college kid who miraculously has 'extra' money will buy it for drinking games, or playing FPS'.

It won't sell like wildfire, and it won't change the industry.
But it will be as fun as the wii, and look good while doing it.

Xantar
03-17-2010, 05:32 PM
TheGame:

I don't think your Xbox comparison is apt, though. The Xbox was an entire console. Move is a peripheral added on four years into the life cycle.

Moreover, you're talking about cross generational success. You argue that the Xbox was a success in the sense that it got the brand name out there and allowed Microsoft to have a successful and almost-profitable Xbox 360 (I say "almost" because apparently the Red Ring of Death ate up nearly all the profit Microsoft could have gotten).

What I'm saying is that Move will fail in this generation. I don't discount the possibility that Move 2 will be widely adopted when it launches on the PS4.

Now here's where I think we really disagree: if I understand you correctly, you're saying that by launching Move on the PS3, Sony makes it more likely that Move 2 will be widely adopted on the PS4. I disagree. I think Move 2 will be fine if it comes standard with the console and if the technology works well, but it will do so on its own merits. I think that by the time the PS4 launches, the original Move will be largely forgotten. Keep in mind here that Sony says they will be launching the PS4 five years from now. By that time, Move will have already failed to sell any appreciable numbers and be widely deemed as a copycat gimmick that didn't catch on. The empirical numbers don't lie. The most successful peripheral of all time is probably the Wii Balance Board which only a third of Wii users purchased at most. And Move is not going to be as successful as the Balance Board.

Also, I just want to make one other minor point:

that there's a good chance that Sony and Microsoft set realistic expectations for these units.

I'm not going to address Microsoft at the moment because we still don't know important details about Natal (like its price and launch software), but I don't have as much faith as you that Sony "set realistic expectations" for anything. We're talking about the company who thought it would be a good idea to sell a console for almost $700 and make it obscenely difficult to develop for. And then have the creator come out saying that the PS3 is so great that people would be willing to take out a second mortgage in order to own one. I'm just saying their foresight hasn't been the greatest.

Xantar
03-17-2010, 05:38 PM
Lots of families have a PS3 already because of the built in blu-ray, and I don't think it's a stretch to think that they'd spend an extra 100 bucks to entertain their 6-10 year old kids. Same as I don't think it's a stretch that a college kid who miraculously has 'extra' money will buy it for drinking games, or playing FPS'.


No peripheral has ever sold well. Forget "selling like wildfire." No peripheral has ever sold well. Period. And this is an expensive peripheral.

The best response you've got to that is "I think the Move is neat-o and it's not that hard for me to imagine families spending an extra $100 on a console they already spent $500 on"? Really?

thatmariolover
03-17-2010, 05:51 PM
What I'm saying is that Move will fail in this generation. I don't discount the possibility that Move 2 will be widely adopted when it launches on the PS4.

This is how I feel, but I'll elaborate.

The Move will be cool, but current games will not support it, and going forward it's going to be all about developer support. And even that breaks down into development cost and how good the toolkits and drivers are. Sony needs to provide tools so that motion detection can be ported from console to console.

Anyway, work is over and I need to finish some things up but I'll finish this later.

manasecret
03-17-2010, 05:53 PM
Keep in mind here that Sony says they will be launching the PS4 five years from now.

This is a question that I think affects the debate.

When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?

I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.

I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).

BreakABone
03-17-2010, 06:14 PM
This is a question that I think affects the debate.

When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?

I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.

I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).

I don't want to talk Natal too much, because we haven't really seen working software yet, but if what I'm hearing is true, its nothing more than an attempt to capture the casual audience.

The simple fact is both of these devices are simple stop gaps to prolong the normal duration of this generation. I mean if you think about it, the 360 would be 5 this year and that's generally when a new console would be expected to debut, but as I've stated in the past, all 3 companies are in a position where it makes no sense to jump ahead.

Wii- Nintendo has captured an audience they have never seen before, and most be careful with their next console. They can't afford to make it too expensive, but on the same hand must have it compete on a technical level and offer something that makes a Wii owner want to upgrade.

360- The 360 has a stellar line-up and the best 3rd party support of all the consoles. MS is not guaranteed the same type of success at the start of the next gen especially...

Ps3- Sony and its developers are finally coming to terms with the hardware, not only are they making great looking games, but original games at that. They are finally picking up momentum, and on a global basis either outsells or is pretty damn close to the Xbox.

My guess is that after the motion control stop gap ends, all companies will be ready to roll with something in 2012.

Also quote from Sega PR on Natal/Move
I think Natal and the Sony Motion Controller allow us to do things that are more about multi, party gaming.

In a way, it's a move away potentially from the core. That's what we're actually getting good at. Mario & Sonic is a multi-party game - but it's actually good fun. Microsoft and Sony are telling us that actually, we don't have to spend $20 million to get things consumers like, because you can approach things with games that are repetitive fun - easy to pick up and pass around. That's where we could either use old Sega IP or come up with new ideas.

The challenge for both first parties is to make sure the installed base of these devices is as high as they've claimed it will be.

If you look at how many Xbox 360s or PS3s there in Europe - let's say 12 million of each - if they get an attached rated of 12-and-a-half per cent with these [motion] devices, that's 2.5 million consumers for us to go after. If ten per cent of those buy our games, that's 250,000. How much money can you realistically spend on development for that audience?

But Microsoft and Sony are talking very big numbers. If they can achieve that, it will make these devices very viable. Could sales of Natal hit 50 per cent of those current installed base? We think the price point will be very attractive. 360 has a long way to go with a lot more hardware - so, for example, if they were to bundle Natal, it's a home run if they can afford to do that. I would imagine both Microsoft and Sony are going to spend big development money to make these devices very attractive.

We'll certainly be supporting both. We have several games on both [Move] and Natal that you will see from around the end of this year and into 2011.

TheGame
03-17-2010, 06:51 PM
This is a question that I think affects the debate.

When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?

I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.

I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).

That's a good question, it has also been on the back of my mind in this thread.

I think this Generation will be longer then what we're used to, because nobody really failed bad enough to want it to end quickly.

Angrist
03-18-2010, 07:06 AM
Wow, finally some good old GameTavern discussions!! :D

I think Reggie said 'Nintendo will make a new console when Miyamoto needs one to make his games.'
Although he makes a good point, it sounds pretty arrogant. As if Miyamoto's the only guy who makes good games at Nintendo...

TheGame
03-18-2010, 02:24 PM
Wow, finally some good old GameTavern discussions!! :D

I think Reggie said 'Nintendo will make a new console when Miyamoto needs one to make his games.'
Although he makes a good point, it sounds pretty arrogant. As if Miyamoto's the only guy who makes good games at Nintendo...

I don't know about him being the only good one to make them.. but his finger prints being on a game sure does increase the chances of it selling. :P

But anyway, I don't think this generation is ending any time soon. I expect Ps3 and X360 to be $150 before it ends.. And I expect the next gen consoles to be $299 at launch. I think this gen still has a good 60-100 million hardware sales left in it.

manasecret
03-18-2010, 02:50 PM
I tend to forget the timeframes from previous generations, so let's recap, going by American release dates and price in the U.S.:

Third Generation (8-bit era)
NES: October 18, 1985 -- $199
Sega Master System: June 1 1986 -- $199

Fourth Generation (16-bit era)
Genesis:September 15, 1989 --$190
SNES: August 1991 -- $199.99

Fifth Generation (32-bit, 64-bit and 3D-1 Era)
Saturn: May 11, 1995 -- $399
PS1: September 9, 1995 -- $299.99
N64: September 29, 1996 -- $199

Sixth Generation (3D-2 Era)
Dreamcast: September 9, 1999 - $199.99
PS2: October 26, 2000 -- $299.99
Xbox: November 15, 2001 -- $299.99
GCN: November 18, 2001 -- $199.99

Seventh Generation (3D-3 & Motion-1 Era)
X360: November 22, 2005 -- $399.99 (Premium)
PS3: November 17, 2006 -- $599.99 (Premium)
Wii: November 19, 2006 -- $249.99

So the time between generations, going by the most successful console at the time of a generation change, was:

NES-->SNES: 6 years
SNES-->N64: 5 years
PS1-->PS2: 5 Years
PS2-->PS3: 6 Years

So on average, the typical time before the next generation release is 5.5 years.

So, if the next generation comes out in 2012, and assuming the Wii is the most successful of this generation, that actually puts things right on track.

I think the new consoles will start coming out in 2012.

BreakABone
03-19-2010, 01:52 PM
I had 2012 pegged as the start of the next generation as well, but who's chicken first and announces their next console?

I mean business wise, would make the most sense for Nintendo since aren't releasing new tech at the end of the year, but also the market leader so hard to say.

TheGame
03-19-2010, 02:19 PM
I had 2012 pegged as the start of the next generation as well, but who's chicken first and announces their next console?

I mean business wise, would make the most sense for Nintendo since aren't releasing new tech at the end of the year, but also the market leader so hard to say.

From a history standpoint, it's usually not the front runner who kicks off the generation.. it's one of the companies that did worse in sales. It makes sense because if you're moving the most hardware, you're probably not going to be in any rush for things to change.

So it's on Sony, or maybe Microsoft (depending on how they feel about this gen) to kick off the next generation.

The thing is, I think all the companies were successful enough to where they're likely not going to try and push out anything fast. Also the 360 and Ps3 are different enough from Wii that they still probably have quite a lot of homes that they can fill.

And on top of that.. I think Sony just might be cocky enough about their 10 year console life span not to rush things.. even if they're in last place. Sony is still selling Ps2's and PSPs.. So they might even have less incentive then Microsoft to move on.

So.. I think if things start in 2012, we're going to see a microsoft release first again. But more likely, I think it's going to start in 2013 with a Sony release first. I can't see Nintendo going first under any circumstance.

BreakABone
03-19-2010, 02:33 PM
The thing with MS/Sony, I guess is two fold. They are doing well, historically better than any second or third place console has ever done, but on the same hand, they will suffer a downswing soon enough (the same way the Wii is now), but what I was more talking about is Natal/Move, they really have to give it room to breath, but on the same hand, I would imagine that both companies have an emergency new console if the tech does not take off.

(That is one hell of a run on sentence so excuse me)

Now here's the thing, traditionally (And this generation is breaking all types of norms) the consoles are announced roughly a year/year and a half before their release which would mean we should start hearing about them at next e3.

If that is the case, it would only give Natal/Move a few months on market, before people start thinking that its dead tech. On the same hand, if Natal/Move takes off, does Sony/MS just hold their cards? What of developers who already started work on their launch titleS?


Now I agree with you about Nintendo not launching first, honestly it makes no sense for them, especially if Mario/Metroid/Zelda are this year, they won't have anything to launch with in 2011 so 2012 at earliest seems like their best bet. On the same hand, what do they do for the rest of the generation. They've exhausted Mario and Metroid for the most part. Zeldas aren't released that often. Smash Bros/Mario Kart seem like once a generation games. And then the rest of their franchises are a bit lower key. Sure they have stuff like The Last Story and Xenoblade, but no proof that will find an audience.

And they can't really depend on 3rd parties to fill any voids.

thatmariolover
03-24-2010, 05:32 PM
Just had to post this because I love it:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/113726/817651900_UPD5c-L.jpg

Fox 6
03-25-2010, 11:49 AM
Just had to post this because I love it:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/113726/817651900_UPD5c-L.jpg

Damn, beat me to it.

Angrist
03-25-2010, 12:01 PM
You wanted to draw the same thing? ;)

Fox 6
03-25-2010, 12:26 PM
You wanted to draw the same thing? ;)

didn't you?

manasecret
03-25-2010, 01:50 PM
I just counted the other day (re: how many licks?). I got about 125. I say "about", because I didn't notice that I had gotten to the tootsie roll center until it was quite a bit revealed.

Angrist
03-26-2010, 12:44 PM
didn't you?Hm if that's an advertizement, we don't have it in Europe. I don't even think we have the brand here.

manasecret
03-26-2010, 12:50 PM
For those who didn't grow up in America:

<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/LZ0epRjfGLw&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/LZ0epRjfGLw&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>

TheSlyMoogle
03-27-2010, 11:49 AM
I just counted the other day (re: how many licks?). I got about 125. I say "about", because I didn't notice that I had gotten to the tootsie roll center until it was quite a bit revealed.

It only takes like 1 lick then bite. You don't even have to bite hard on a tootsie pop. Blow Pops are much more complex in their lick-to-center ratio.

Tasty gum-center vs. nasty chocolatechewieick-center.

GUM WINS!

BreakABone
05-12-2010, 01:44 PM
Random bump as our friend, Pachter, gives us his thoughts


Eurogamer: Let's talk about E3. Who would you rather be: Nintendo, Microsoft or Sony?

Michael Pachter: It really depends on this 3DS and how good it is, because I don't think Nintendo has anything else. Nintendo is on the verge of - certainly not dropping into third place or anything - losing its dominance, because I really truly believe that Sony Move is the Wii HD. I really believe it. That's been my quote: I told everyone a Wii HD was coming this year, it just happens to say PS3 on the box. It is the Wii HD.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/being-michael-pachter-interview?page=1

manasecret
05-12-2010, 02:05 PM
Who is Pachter, and why should his opinion have any weight? An honest question.

And Moogle, I always meant to reply to your Blow-Pop vs. Tootsie-Pop comment, and yes, I'm with you. I will always prefer a delicious, gum-center Blow-Pop over the nasty chocolatechewieick-center Tootsie-Pop. I don't know why tootsie rolls were every popular, let alone now.

EDIT: Well I just read the summary at top of the link, and it appears Pachter is a video game industry analyst that helps investors make the right decision. (Fat chance.) I obviously don't know his specific record, but all opinions I've read from industry analysts have been full of shit.

Move On.

Angrist
05-14-2010, 07:58 AM
Is Pachter the glassed guy who's sometimes on GameTrailers?

Bond
05-17-2010, 01:31 PM
Pachter works for Wedbush Morgan Securities in their Entertainment Software, Entertainment Retail and Movies & Entertainment. Blurb:

Mr. Pachter is an analyst at Wedbush Securities providing coverage of the Entertainment Software, Entertainment Retail and Movies and Entertainment sectors.

Previously, Mr. Pachter spent two years as the Director of Research at Wedbush Securities. Before joining Wedbush Securities, Mr. Pachter served as the Director at Management Resource Center, a middle-market investment bank. Prior to that, Mr. Pachter spent 15 years in various financial and management positions at Atlantic Richfield Company, most recently as Director of Strategic Planning. Mr. Pachter brings over 20 years of experience as a finance professional to Wedbush Securities. Mr. Pachter has been recognized as StarMine's Top Earnings Estimator year after year and Best on the Street by the Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Pachter holds an M.B.A. from the Anderson School at the University of California at Los Angeles, a juris doctor from Pepperdine University, an LL.M. in Taxation from the University of Florida, and a bachelor's in Political Science from California State University, Northridge.

http://www.wedbush.com/inside/CapitalMarkets/ResearchProfessionals.asp

BreakABone
05-17-2010, 07:05 PM
I like Pachter, he may not always be right, but he does offer some interesting takes on the industry.

Though this one just seems like a cheap cop-out.