Sandy did not end Romney's "Romentum". It had already ended. Romney peaked with the week following the Denver debate and was still losing. It was a lot closer at that point, but Obama made back whatever he lost in the three weeks following. Sandy was politically helpful for Obama as callous as it sounds, but the cake was already in the oven.
Not when you look at trends from RCP polling aggregates prior to the election. The last week saw an incredible spike for the Pres. along with Romney going flat when previously he had slowed, but steady, polling growth. If you look back at my posts you'll see I had a considerable shift in election opinion once Sandy hit.
Oh, and Chris Matthews agrees with me:
Classy guy, that one.
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Last edited by Professor S : 11-07-2012 at 11:28 AM.
Same here. I mean, I don't want change for the sake of change. I want change I agree with.
It is sad that no progressive policies are going to go through and we are still going to be at the whim of reactionaries, though.
1) You got the change you agreed with in 2008
2) He passed exactly what he wanted for 2 years when he controlled government.
You have received what you asked for. But as I've often said when it comes progressive policy, the overriding reaction to failure tends to be "We just need to do it HARDER!"
At the very least we should get gridlock, and gridlock is much better than another Dodd-Frank or other interventionist policies that have frozen growth.
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
It will be interesting to see the policy stance shift in the next four years regarding war with Iran. Predictions are that under Obama, there will be a further focus on the Southeast Asian region, whereas Romney with his lobbyist (Netanyahu) support would have been much more likely to engage Iran.
"However, he showed a lack of moral character when he let American generals intensify the use of killing drones in Afghanistan and in Pakistan, thus killing thousands of people, many of them innocent civilians. He has surprisingly demonstrated a lack of respect for civil liberties, going as far as claiming for his administration the right to target even American citizens for extrajudicial assassinations." --Professor Dr Rodrigue Tremblay
This should be of concern to anyone who thinks in terms of inalienable rights. For Obama to codify into law extra judicial killings of American citizens(and by proxy its allied nations' citizens) is something that Bush wouldn't have been able to get away with. Democrat peace chanties were way too silent on this issue.
Well, the $45+ million that Dupont, Dow Chemical, Monsanto, CocaCola (and brands like Kashi cereals huh) worked in dissuading voters in California to reject proposition 37. Hard to imagine that it actually got voted down since most people (9 in 10) want GMO labeling. Hopefully, like the Colorado decriminalization both movements will generate further referendums in other states. Dr. Mercola donated 1.5$ million to the Yes on Prop 37. Quite an amazing amount.
Anyone who has a family and loved ones should find out more about the health consequences of consuming gmo foods.
Denver = New Amsterdamn?? Apparently Washington state just legalized recreational use as well..
Most likely the DEA will be given the same green light to enforce federal law. Legal response by the federal government will be quick.
Not that I smoke it either, but this could be very important in terms of public health. Juicing the raw plant material and bud (not dried) doesn't have ANY psychoactive affects and produces a neurotransmitter "echo" response that initiates healing on all sorts of levels. Cannabinoids work with the natural endo recepters (it's in mother's breast milk!) and now the black market growers that have been breeding high THC content are now interested in the prospect of breeding in a higher ratio of non-THC cannabinoids back into the strains. This is important, and a good reason to decriminalize but not legalize. Federally supervised growing will wreck this medicinal potential.
Anyway, it's a big issue since you can literally 'cure' crohns disease in a matter of a month or two. Not much is known about the raw-healing qualities of cannabis since it requires large crop yields in order to supply appropriate dosage.
Also, Rick Simpson has brought public awareness to the healing qualities of cannabis oil(not hemp seed oil). He uses different solvents but any high grade alcohol will work. You can treat skin cancer topically with it and see regression literally overnight.
You probably don't know this, but Harper is ready to ratify a free trade agreement with China that would contract our country for 25 years. It stipulates that China can "discreetly sue" the Canadian taxpayers if we as a nation attempt to protect our environment from resource extraction attempts by Chinese companies. The lawsuit would have a publication ban and would be arbitrated by a private third party. http://elizabethmaymp.ca/news/public...tion-deadline/
Just like NAFTA it would have a net negative effect on Canada's trade. Freaky shit. Our PM has prorogued parliament twice. It's lunacy and unfortunately the Liberal Party will probably have its savior in the form of Justin Trudeau. My country's boned if this is the alternative. "The horror! The horror!"
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
A lot of Christians I know would never vote for the right because of exactly what you just outlined Vampyr.
Social issues take precedent over domestic observances. Maybe it's a Canadian thing and binaries don't rule the day quite as much?
Here, people vote for Harper because we are a resource economy and on a provincial level, the feds have vowed not to mess with regional profit holdings. Mercer makes it funny.
Back to the Hurricane Sandy vs Nate Silver argument: Hurricane Sandy hit on the 29th and 30th. Looking at the chart below, it correlates almost to the day that political fortunes switched. Switch the chart to 30 or 14 days to see the trend.
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor S
Back to the Hurricane Sandy vs Nate Silver argument: Hurricane Sandy hit on the 29th and 30th. Looking at the chart below, it correlates almost to the day that political fortunes switched. Switch the chart to 30 or 14 days to see the trend.
Yeah, but you're using RCP's averaging numbers, which obviously weren't as correct as Silver's...and I mean that they don't necessarily explain all of it...538 actually has a few more words that go into the details of the polls. I can't take time to find it right now, but if you go to the 538 archives, you can see Silver talking about Romney's momentum ending weeks ago. I'm not sure why you'd keep citing RCP when they weren't as accurate as The Princeton Election Consortium, 538, or this blog http://votamatic.org/election-day-fo...32-romney-206/
I guess here's an example from Sam Wang's site. Basically after the 2nd debate, all the momentum is in Obama's favor. That's well before Sandy.
EDIT: Here is Silver's post regarding Mitt Romney's momentum, dated 10/24.
Yeah, but you're using RCP's averaging numbers, which obviously weren't as correct as Silver's...
Obviously incorrect? How so? Did RCP's aggregate polling estimate that Romney would be the winner? No, if you look at the trends you would guess Pres. Obama would have won re-election. All of these models, if you can call RCP a model since it doesn't make predictions, are based on whether or not they were correct. Both 538, and RCP's polling aggregates, showed strong signs Pres. Obama would win. They both proved correct.
If you look at the trends, and at the movement of undecided voters to Pres. Obama after Sandy, it's very difficult for me to understand how people can say the storm had no effect on voting. Also, please keep in mind I don't think Sandy was the only reason. Youth turnout was huge, and Silver had that nailed, along with single females and minority voting. But Sandy made it an easier victory for Pres. Obama, IMO.
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor S
Obviously incorrect? How so? Did RCP's aggregate polling estimate that Romney would be the winner? No, if you look at the trends you would guess Pres. Obama would have won re-election. All of these models, if you can call RCP a model since it doesn't make predictions, are based on whether or not they were correct. Both 538, and RCP's polling aggregates, showed strong signs Pres. Obama would win. They both proved correct.
If you look at the trends, and at the movement of undecided voters to Pres. Obama after Sandy, it's very difficult for me to understand how people can say the storm had no effect on voting. Also, please keep in mind I don't think Sandy was the only reason. Youth turnout was huge, and Silver had that nailed, along with single females and minority voting. But Sandy made it an easier victory for Pres. Obama, IMO.
I never said the storm had no effect on voting. Your original argument was that "Sandy ended Romney's momentum." My argument is that isn't true, when any positive polling towards Romney basically ended 10 days after the Denver debate and started regressing to Obama. Sandy increased Obama's momentum back to his pre-Denver debate levels.
Maybe the problem is definition of momentum...I would think momentum means at least a gradual climb since Denver until Sandy. If Romney's momentum had increased until Sandy hit, he should have been ahead in the Electoral College by then, but he wasn't. Romney's best numbers were the week after Denver, maybe except for that errant Gallup poll that had Romney up 7 points or something.
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
Just imagine if Romney's camp would have won all 4 debates. (lol)
There's a lot of reasons Romney lost that had nothing to do with the Hurricane.
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it's very difficult for me to understand how people can say the storm had no effect on voting.
I think it's the simple fear of "Give an inch, take a mile". The second an important Democrat says "Well, I'm sure the Hurricane had some effect on voting and the way some Republicans perceived the President", some Republican media source will most certainly turn that into "The only reason Obama won was because of a timely hurricane."
Quote:
Looking at the chart below, it correlates almost to the day that political fortunes switched.
While that's true, it could also just be simple coincidence of "The election is getting nearer, so people are making more concrete choices."
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
__________________ "I have been saying this for some time, but customers are not interested in grand games with higher-quality graphics and sound and epic stories,"-Hiroshi Yamauchi
While I disagree with Cenk that Romney was "crushed" (I still don't get that narrative from the left), I agree that the Republican party needs to become more socially liberal if they want to remain relevant. Demographics have changed, and the new voter will not stand for candidates or a party that won't move with them culturally.
To do list for the GOP
- Accept gay marriage
- Promote practical and welcoming immigration reform
- Come to the middle on abortion (but remain strongly against late term)
- Move from idealistic taxation stances. Namely, if you get an honest 10 to 1 deal on spending cuts vs tax increases, TAKE IT (just make sure the are tied to the cuts). But remain strongly against punitive progressive policies that hurt revenue and private investment.
- Reform existing regulation instead of moving to repeal it.
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
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