Neo's expert electoral college predictions

[Stonecutter]

Originally Posted by Neo

Kerry now leading in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In whose polls?

Cause if they ain't Zogby or from a university, they ain't ****.

[Neo]

American Research Poll group, Insider Advantage, Washington Post (tied), Chicago Tribune.

[Neo]

Do you believe these new zogby polls that say Kerry has a 4 point lead in Colorado and Bush has a 5 point lead in New Mexico? Those seem highly unlikely. I also think the Gallup polls are screwed up in general. It's the only poll which gives Bush a significant lead. All the others are statistical ties. I remember in 2000 Gallup said Bush was way ahead but Gore ended up winning the popular vote. Phone polling methodology leaves a lot to be desired. One criticism is that cell phone users cannot be polled. Most cell users are young people and young people favor Kerry.

I now believe that Kerry will win all three of the important states, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. The 2:1 undecided voter model along with the young vote should break the ties in Ohio and Florida. Even if the undecideds break 3:2 it should be enough.

Florida is really the key for Kerry. Without it he has to win Ohio, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, or he has to win Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and either Minnesota or Wisconsin.

[TheGame]

The open support for bush isn't as loud as the open hatred. With that said, I'm sure there will be an outrage if Bush wins, and not one if Kerry wins. And there will be big parties if Kerry wins and probably not as many if Bush wins.

I personally think the electoral college is fair. If anything you should be mad at the people in the bigger states who didn't go out and vote. The voters represent the whole population in the state, if they voted or not... sounds fair to me.