Project Natal/Sony Move Thread (Natal $150 ?)

[Typhoid]

I think this is a good time for Nintendo to show how innovative they can be.

To be fair, they were only 'innovative' once, with the Wii. And I mean, it's not like they created that. They just took 80's arcade tech, mixed with a little bit of Superscope and put it in a box. I'm not saying it's a bad thing.

They actually said that Balls isn't a game, it's a way of life.

That's the most unfortunate quote of the year.

[Angrist]

Did you mean "with the Wii, they were only innovative once", or "they were only innovative once, namely with the Wii"?

I don't agree with either.

[BreakABone]

Natal will launch in the US this October with a price tag of $149.

That’s according to a trusted source, who told us that the motion sensing camera will also be bundled with the Xbox 360 Arcade console for $299.

We were informed that prices outside of the US would be determined based on a number of factors, including exchange rates. Based on current rates, the standalone unit would retail for £103 / €121, and the console and Natal bundle for £207 / €243.

The figure for the standalone unit is significantly higher than a previous sub-£50 estimate, but less than pricing recently suggested by European retailers. It’s also more expensive than Sony’s Natal rival Move, which will be available later this year with a game for less than $100.

Our source said that the device has been pencilled in for an October 26 worldwide launch, although we were advised that the date could yet shift by a few weeks either way.

We were also told Microsoft’s camera definitely won’t be called Natal and that its proper title will be revealed at E3 next month. It will also be heavily targeted at causal players and families.

“Microsoft expects to sell millions and millions of Natal units in its first year on the market so you can expect the software launch line-up to target non-traditional gamers,” our source said. “A major marketing campaign will also play a key role in attracting and educating the expanded audience about Xbox 360’s controller-free revolution.”

When contacted about this report, Microsoft told us that it "does not comment on rumour or speculation”.

http://www.edge-online.com/news/nata...2%80%93-source

Ahh sweet sweet pre-e3 time

[KillerGremlin]

150!?

How much does a Wii cost these days?

I'd rather buy a Wii, which is more polished/refined and has a larger library of shovelware and bullshit waggle titles.

[Xantar]

Well, I now have 149 reasons why Natal is going to fail. Nice try, Microsoft. Give it another go in the next generation, won't you?

[manasecret]

I agree that $150 is too much to make any sort of dent on the Wii dominance, but the packing in with the 360 Arcade for $300 (or $100 more than the Wii package), makes things slightly more interesting.

You have to imagine that the presumed new market "casual" consumers are the ones who haven't bought the 360 yet en masse, so the $150 price doesn't matter to that market. It's the $300 that matters. And it will probably be marketed to them as a Wii HD, thus giving reason for the $100 premium.

Will a $100 premium, late-generation peripheral/system with a light library (of party-style games) sell well to the "casual" market? All signs from history that I can remember point to "No effin' way". I'm going with Xantar here, better luck next generation Microsoft.

[BreakABone]

Originally Posted by manasecret

I agree that $150 is too much to make any sort of dent on the Wii dominance, but the packing in with the 360 Arcade for $300 (or $100 more than the Wii package), makes things slightly more interesting.

You have to imagine that the presumed new market "casual" consumers are the ones who haven't bought the 360 yet en masse, so the $150 price doesn't matter to that market. It's the $300 that matters. And it will probably be marketed to them as a Wii HD, thus giving reason for the $100 premium.

There are a few fundamental flaws with the argument I guess

a) After 4 years on the market, the arcade unit has gotten a bad rep for most people. Its near impossible to enjoy the 360 without a harddrive, between patches, DLC and demoes.

b) The HD upgrade. People assume that everyone else wants shiny graphics, but most normal semi-gamers just won't care for the diff between SD and HD. Hell most people can hardly hook up HD properly.

c) We don't know if it comes with software, though I assume it will come with that ball game they are always showing off.

[Typhoid]

I think $150 is a fair price.
Considering games are $60-$75 new.

[gekko]

I'd expect both these to be similar to the Wii Fit pricing + $10 next-gen surcharge like all PS3/360 games. So... $89.99ish.

[Angrist]

Based on current rates, the standalone unit would retail for £103 / €121

No no no, that's not how it works. A dollar in the USA is a Euro here. So it would be €150, which means we get ripped off like always.

Anyway, it will be a nice but underrated toy.

[manasecret]

Originally Posted by Typhoid

I think $150 is a fair price.
Considering games are $60-$75 new.

Originally Posted by Angrist

Anyway, it will be a nice but underrated toy.

Agreed, and agreed.

I'd like to reiterate here that, if they bring the must-have games, I will seriously consider buying them at these prices. Like always, it's a matter of if there are must-have games. (EDIT: My previous placement of like always I think was confusing.) These prices are fair for me. I just don't think they will be successful with sales to the wider market.

However, they will be successful in that it gives them a test-bed for their next-gen systems. They may even be setup in such a way that they will be transferable to the next-gen, and also bundled with the next-gen PS4 and 360-2. I see little reason why that isn't possible. That would make releasing them this late in the current generation make a lot more sense.

[BreakABone]

Originally Posted by gekko

I'd expect both these to be similar to the Wii Fit pricing + $10 next-gen surcharge like all PS3/360 games. So... $89.99ish.

Wouldn't that put it at 99.99 or more?

Originally Posted by manasecret

I'd like to reiterate here that, if they bring the must-have games, like always, I will seriously consider buying them at these prices. They're fair for me. I just don't think they will be successful with sales to the wider market.

However, they will be successful in that it gives them a test-bed for their next-gen systems. They may even be setup in such a way that they will be transferable to the next-gen, and also bundled with the next-gen PS4 and 360-2. I see little reason why that isn't possible. That would make releasing them this late in the current generation make a lot more sense.

I'm curious what must-have games for Natal will be.

The current make-up of the Xbox are the Call of Duty, Halo, Gears of War type, and while those games may feature Natal support, we also know they work well with a standard controller.

But guess shall wait until e3 to see how this all breaks down. What comes with Natal. What games they are showcasing.

[Xantar]

It doesn't matter. It's an add-on and it costs $150. Only a fraction of the Xbox 360 audience will buy it regardless of how good the initial software lineup is, and therefore developers will soon give up on throwing any significant resources toward it. And therefore by the end of next year there will only be a handful of worthwhile games which take advantage of Natal properly and therefore people won't feel inclined to buy it. And therefore developers won't see any reason to develop good games for it and therefore and so on and so forth.

We will be talking about Natal at this E3. And we will be talking about Natal at E3 in 2011. And then next year Microsoft will act like they don't even remember Natal because by then it will have failed to sell any decent numbers or even to make any sort of impression on the public. That's just the way these things go. Now if you think $150 is a fair price to pay for this device, then more power to you, but let's not pretend that what you are buying is going to be relevant to your gaming or anybody else's by this time in 2012.

However, they will be successful in that it gives them a test-bed for their next-gen systems. They may even be setup in such a way that they will be transferable to the next-gen, and also bundled with the next-gen PS4 and 360-2. I see little reason why that isn't possible. That would make releasing them this late in the current generation make a lot more sense.

I think Microsoft and Sony will try to spin Natal and Move as just test runs when they fail, but I don't think they are releasing these products and anticipating that they will fail. I talked about this before, but I'll repeat it again.

First of all, releasing a product that's doomed to failure is a horrible way of doing business no matter what kind of PR sheen you try to put on it after the fact. Not only does it waste money, it also gives the perception that either you've been badly defeated or you never made a serious effort to begin with. This stuff matters. There was a time when Sony was the invincible juggernaut in the videogame arena, but now they've been handed two unequivocal defeats in this generation (in terms of sales). When Move also fails, it's going to be that much harder for Sony to convince people to have any confidence in their next venture.

Secondly, by the time Natal and Move have been deemed failures, there will still be another two or three years left in the life cycle of the Xbox 360 and the PS3. In 2014, Kaz Hirai will come up on stage at E3 to announce the PS4, and when he says, "And the PS4 is fully compatible with Move!" the general response will be, "The what? Oh, that thing which went the way of the Virtual Boy two years ago? Does anybody still have theirs?" At one point I thought the same as you that the idea was to develop these technologies to be used on the next generation rather than this one, but when I looked at the timeline, I realized that it made no sense. These peripherals will not transfer to the next generation because nobody will own them.

Xbox Live on the original Xbox was an example of how you do a test run. It was conceived as an integral part of the console from the beginning, it was always well-supported, and it was still in wide general use by the time the current generation rolled around. It's even remained in service up until this year. That is not going to be true of Natal and Move. Those peripherals are going to be dumped before we get to the next generation.

To me, the greatest value of Natal and Move derives from PR but not in the way you think. Microsoft and Sony have been getting hit over and over with the fact that the Wii has something they don't. Yeah, you can pooh pooh the Wii motion controls, but there are consumers who don't read videogame forums or pay much particular attention to the industry who, when they look at the consoles side by side, will say, "Well that one over there has lots of buttons I will have to learn how to use and this one over here has an intuitive controller that I can just pick up. Plus it's cheaper." Natal and Move are attempts to say, "No wait! We've got intuitive motion controls too! Give us a chance!" Sure, the actual peripherals will be dead and unsupported pretty soon, but the uninformed consumer doesn't know that.

And the thing is Microsoft and Sony aren't idiots. They have to realize what they're getting into here, and they have to know that nothing they can possibly do at this point will give Natal and Move any life beyond the year 2012. I'm not saying anything here they don't already know (at least I hope not because otherwise that would be pathetic). So this says to me that notwithstanding the gripes of hardcore gamers, the damage from missing out on the casual gamer crowd must be so great that they are willing to take on a suicide mission like this.

[Angrist]

I think Sony and Microsoft just got desperate. They don't want to experiment with motion control in the next gen: they want to do it right and from the start.

Nintendo has shown how a new technology has issues. They also have a lead of a whole generation. Sony and MS just ran out of options. Get on board now, or give up completely.

[manasecret]

Before a full reply to Xantar, your argument and mine assume two different start times for the next gen. You assume 2014, which if that is the case, then I think you're right that the Move and Natal will be long forgotten and won't be integrated into the next gen.

However, I'm still assuming that -- despite all the blustering I've heard about how expensive the consoles are for MS and Sony this generation -- the next gen will start in 2012, starting with the Wii 2. (That's a gut feeling (i.e. made up), but also based off the timelines I compiled in that other thread about the Move.) In that case, the next gen will begin just as Move and Natal are waning, and would give them a second life moving into next gen.