An analyst said it so it must be true: PS3 will outsell Wii

[Xantar]

The first paragraph is the important part.

The prediction is based on the PS3 remaining a commercial platform for five years after the Wii has been replaced. Report author David Mercer predicts a 127 million unit lifetime title for the PS3, compared to 103 million for the Wii.

The global totals for the three consoles currently stand at approximately 68 million for the Wii, 38 million for the 360 and 32.5 million for the PS3.

The report also predicts that worldwide home console sales will drop by 9 per cent in 2010, to a total of 47.5 million; 17.5 million for the Wii, 14.0 million for the PS3, 10.5 million for the 360 and 5.5 for the PlayStation 2.

Source: GamesIndustry.biz (membership required)

So he's saying that the PS3 will outlast the Wii by five years and as a result will have a greater install base by the end. In the meantime, the PS3 has sold an average of 9 million units worldwide per year. To sell 14 million in 2010, it would have to see a sales surge of over 50% in its fourth year of life. I know the PS3 is cheaper and has some good games coming out, but I still don't see where this huge boost is coming from. And why exactly is the Xbox 360 going to experience such a huge drop?

You may be wondering: "Who are these guys anyway?" Well, I kind of have a hobby following analysts, and I have some predictions by the same firm back in 2005 (when the Wii was called Nintendo Revolution).

The report predicts that Sony will sell 121.8 million PS3s worldwide through 2012. Sales of Xbox 360s are expected to reach 58.8 million and of Nintendo's Revolution nearly 18 million. Cumulative retail revenues for all consoles over this period will exceed $47bn.

Source

I'm apparently in the wrong line of business. These people are getting paid to come up with numbers like this. And apparently their only method is to look at the past and predict that the same thing will happen in the future. "The PS3's sales grew last year. It will grow again this year and grow even more next year." I really want to know who buys these reports and actually makes investment decisions based on them. But mostly I just want to know how I can get a job like this.