EGM Rumor Mole (January)

[gekko]

Xbox 2 will be rushed. PS3 will be rushed. Both will suck. People might not want to wait for Nintendo 5. Sega jumps in, rules the world. Umm... no predictions right now. Just have to say this:

I was never impressed with PS2 from the start. Promised a lot, delivered little. Suffered hardware-wise. It would be smart of Sony to take things slow, and put out better hardware. If you ask me, they got lucky developers didn't ditch them from the start when they realized what a bitch it was to develop for. Don't make the same mistake twice.

Xbox 2, I can smell disapointment. Xbox's fan base are the ones always looking for the best graphics and sound. Sound they may get, but the sonner Xbox 2 comes out, the worse the graphics will be. They have the best hardware because they waited. Why rush things?

And GBA, Nintendo will wait. The cell-phone thing was shown early on. Planned to release one with built-in capabilities alongside an adapter for the current one. If they do go threw with this (I don't see the reasoning, at least not stateside), I'd bet they release an adapter plus a new unit like initially planned.

[gekko]

Originally posted by Bond
Also, I think the Xbox will again be the most technologically advanced system. Simply because Microsoft has the most money to spend on it and the most access to new technology in my opinion. It's also a great debating and advertising option. Early reports have indicated the Xbox 2 chip is more advanced than the Playstation 3 chip.

Well PS3 has been in development for ages. Hell, the upgrade chips announced before DCs release are part of the plan. But I personally don't believe any of the reports. Xbox 2 might be shooting for higher goals, but in reality, how would either company really know what will be advanced 4 years from now? nVidia is currently working on the nv30. If they release that with Xbox 2, they'll be laughed at.

I wouldn't say Microsoft has more access to technology. Microsoft will be going to their trusted PC companies again, likely nVidia. Not saying much. Not like Sony or Nintendo can't go to PC companies for the newest and the greatest stuff. If Nintendo goes with ATI again, they got the same technology as nVidia. Don't know what Sony is doing, but I wouldn't say they have less access to the technology than MS.

But if Xbox 2 and PS3 come out in 2005. Guess who will be at E3 2005 showing off the best hardware? Nintendo. The one who comes out last will be the one advertising their graphics and amazing capability. If Xbox 2 comes out first, they can only brag until the next system is unveiled. Kind of like Sony no longer brags about looking too hot, but back at E3 with the Gran Turismo demo, boy did they think they were hot ****.

Sony is a generation behind Microsoft (hard drive, ethernet port, 4 controller ports)... by the time the PS3 has a hard drive and ethernet port standard Microsoft will have already moved on to something else on the Xbox 2. Xbox 2 will have everything standard that the Xbox has and more... you can quote me on that.

We can quote you on that because it's obvious. Sony isn't a generation behind. They won't add a HD and built-in ethernet, and release PS3. That's not how things work. The only reason ethernet isn't standard on other consoles is because less than half the people have it. Next generation you don't have that problem, it'll be standard. Hard drive will likely be standard, perhaps not one taken from your local CompUSA, but some form of mass-storage will be standard. From there each company will try to innovate. No one will be behind Microsoft here. Nintendo will add ethernet and a HD, then try to innovate. Sony will (hopefully) add 4 controller ports, ethernet, HD, and then try to innovate. Microsoft just tries to innovate.

[gekko]

In Japan, the DVD player sold it. Not here.

[gekko]

Originally posted by TheGame
For some reason, I see the next generation for Microsoft (because of the US base) being a worldwide release.

I doubt it. They wanted a worldwide release this generation. The reality is its too hard to pull off. For one that's way too many consoles to manufacture in a short period. And the launch lineups would also suffer. Most games don't get done in time for launch, now you expect them to be done it time, and translated and made for multiple regions? Not a chance.

I have a feeling MS will promise a worldwide release. But they won't deliver. I think they'll go with Japan first, because that's where they need help.

[gekko]

Originally posted by TheGame
But you have to admit, M$ is the only company capable of handleing it.

I don't think any of them could do it.

Thier internal development houses are in US.. that means the US version of everything comes first. While the third party support rests in Japan. US could just get a more first party launch with 3rd party games later, while japan could have more of a third party launch with the 1st party US games later.

All that with get you is a half-ass lineup in 2 regions, instead of a great launch in 2 regions.

Nintendo and Sony don't have this luxury... they develop everything in Japan to start then port it to america... that's why Japan can always get the consoles first. MS could work both sides of the time line at the same time.

Not everything. Wave Race, 1080, Eternal Darkness, and Metroid Prime are all North American-made games.

Japan first? That would be a stupid move... who thinks Xbox 2 will do good in Japan anyway?

That's the reasoning behind Japan first.

[Null]

if xbox2 comes out first. when all the consoles are out, and its all said and done, Xbox 2 will not be the most technology advanced one of them. You can quote me on that one.
(a few month period tho i do not considere one comeont out fist. that would be relitively the same time)

And PS2 already has an eithernet port, so does GC, just cuz they didnt come with it, doesnt mean they're a generation behind. i say they're step above, they both have dialup connections.

just because people have old crappy connections doesnt mean they shouldnt be able to go online with em.

and as for the hard drive. i dont want one, i dont see how thats a generation behind either. my PC has a hard drive. i dont want to buy another computer. i want a console.

[Null]

Originally posted by Shiz
well i guess it depends on how u look at it

sony will have learned more and the graphics will probably be better than xbx 2's, but they wont have that hype of it being released early

ps2 sold alot at the start cause everyone was like "i dont wanna wait a long time to get a next gen console, so lets get ps2!"

now thats how xbox 2 will be. and if sony gets it right the graphics will be a bit better than xbox 2's

on the other hand, everyone will still remember ps and ps2 and wait and not buy xbox 2 and get ps3. theres a few more but i dont feel like typing :\

Dreamcast was the first nex gen console. Being released early has nothing to do with it. I believe its more on reputation.

Sega developed a bad rep of releasing consoles.

Nintendo developed a rep of being targeted more towards children.

Sony had a good PSX generation, and deveoped a rep as the #1 runner.

MS Had no rep going into it.

i think sales reflect such issues. and turning a rep around is hard to do.

[TheGame]

Ok, here's my allmightly analyst

Xbox 2 coming out before Ps3 is a risk, but it may be worth taking. This generation Sony has proved that the past has nothing to do with the industry today... or does it.

Sony had:
1) Hard development
2) No 1st/2nd party support for the launch
3) The worst graphics/loading times
4) Competition who had don'e most things on the hardware side better.

Guess what? With all it's flaws it still came out on top. Here's Justin's explination of why:

The most obvious reason it is coming out on top is the introduction of DVD players within the system. Gekko, you may think it had no effect on US, but it had a HUGE effect. The DVD player alone justified the purchase of a Ps2 for parents, and the games justified it for kids. Dreamcast missed it's oppritunity with this feature, and that's why it failed to beat Ps2.

Even Xbox and GCN can't compete with the built in DVD player. with Xbox you have to spend $30 to get the remote to activate it, and with the cube you have to go out and spend $100 on a new full feature DVD player. Not enough people had DVD players in late 2000-early 2002 to call this feature a negitive. Now it's extremely popular, and Sony just dropped the price.

Then there's that little thing called trust for the company. Psx's greatness rubbed off a lot on this console... almost too much, but people seem to trust sequals more than new games.

The thing about Next generation is... the DVD player will be a non-factor. It will be back where it was in the Psx N64 generation, all about the games.

Now that this fact is clear we go back to the question again: Should Microsoft release it's console first?

(Note: I'm concentrating on the US Market, because that's where Xbox 2 will be released first most likely.)

Sony and Sega in the past took the same risks (releasing before the last gen champion). Sega took the risk 3 times. The first time they tried (in direct competition) against SNES, and ended up winning over US. The second time they weren't so lucky. Sporting a $399 price tag and harder development, and no new innovative features to show for it they fell victim to Psx's $299 tag extremely easy development and mass appeal through the name "Sony"... the third time, they release DC early in one of the most obvious attempts to make some quick $$$ before the "real" generation began. Of course once again, they get squished by Sony because of a serious lack of developer support (hell they didn't even have a single EA game, not many consoles can say that) and a lack of fan support because of the let down of saturn the generation before.

Now the question stands, will Microsoft be a Sega or a Sony... Maybe a little of both. Has there ever been a console to come out last and take the US in sales? Nope, never. SNES couldn't do it, N64 didn't do it, and GCN won't do it. So that tells you the security in coming out last for a generation. Coming out first hasn't been to sweet either, as Saturn and Dreamcast sufferd a horrible failure.

Here are a mixed bag of reasons why Dreamcast and Sega Saturn failed and if or if not Xbox can solve this problem:

[b]1) The console creator didn't have enough money to push the console more than 2 years.[b] (this is true for both DC and Saturn)

Can it be solved? Yes:

*looks around* Where is Microsoft's profit for this generation? Nowhere. Microsoft isn't out there to make a profit very fast, they are out to spend as much money as it takes to get thier foot in the door of the industry. If a company like Microsoft made Dreamcast (assumin they developed as well as Sega) it would still be alive today, AND in most of our homes. Good games are good games, nothing can change that. Microsoft would have been able to weather the late 2000 storm, get some quality titles out, and forced hardcore gamers to buy a DC at a $100 (or less) price tag. They will be able to do this with thier own console, no doubt.

2) Hard development prevented developers from supporting the console in full ( This is true for Saturn)

Can it be solved? Yes:

Now-a-days, it isn't hard to make a development kit that is easy to develop on. It just takes that little extra effort. Are they willing to give this extra effort? Hell yeah, well, if they want a chance in hell at winning next generation.

3) Small userbase stopped many developers from supporting the console (This is true for Dreamcast, and Saturn after one year mixed with the expensive development)

Can it be solved? Most likely

You have to remember, this generation isn't over... if Xbox completly flops (which I can't see happening anymore) Developers won't be running with open arms. But then again, Developers weren't running to Xbox either. But money can pursuade a lot of developers to change thier minds.

4)The console started off stuck with a equal higher price than the immediate (same generation) competition (True for Saturn)

Can it be solved? Depends on the competition

If Microsoft releases thier console first, I'm sure they would make enough bones at thier starting price to lower it in time for Ps3's US launch. If they don't, they just didn't learn anything from the past. If Sony keeps ducking thier price, or acctually releases a price efficent system like Psx (doubtful, but possible), M$ may have to stick with the higher price.

5) Last but not least, the console had to be the weakest of the contending consoles in it's generation (true for Saturn and Dreamcast)

Can it be solved? You tell me

Ok, here's a scenario. MS is US based, right? So they release thier consoles in US first. While Sony is Japan based, meaning they kick off in Japan first. If The Japan Ps2 and the US Xbox are released the same day, it IS possible that M$ can get away with releasing a console earlier with better visuals. It sounds crazy, but it's true. All in all, they could possibly release an easier to develop for console, with better graphics, games, and a completed online gaming service before Sony even comes to North America!

Am I saying they will do this? No, but it is most definently a possibility.

Kinda sounds like Dremcast right? But it's not, for one it would have much better third party support. Also, the graphics would really be better, just not a bunch of Sega fanboys lying to themselves in the DC Era.

So all this I wrote leaves one question to be desired: Should they release thier console first?

In my opinion, if they do everything right, and release it first, and have M$ backing it for at least 5 years financially, we could be looking at probably the best console of all time. But remember, they have to do everything right... if they are going to make some mistakes, being the first out the gate isn't a smart move at all. Just take the delay and fix the mistakes.

I seriously could never imagine Sony ever falling victim to another console ever again if Sony keeps getting thier foot out the gate first. The generation champion is allowed to make mistakes while being the first out the gate... Sony could announce Ps3 for next year and make it horrible and chances are it will still have a domination run.

I honestly believe Dreamcast had the best chance of taking down Sony this generation, but we all saw how well that went. Dreamcast was near perfect, but it just wasn't. It had a couple of flaws that premitted Sony to slice thier throats.

[TheGame]

Originally posted by Shiz
i dont understand why u think that they could possibly develop a system with better graphics games and online gaming service better than the others. every other company has as just a good chance dont they?

btw, nice read justin, thanks

I'm not saying they will make a better system than Sony... but if they release it in america at the same time Sony releases Ps2 in Japan there is a good possibility that even with an earlier release it could have better hardware than Sony's in every way.

We can't jump to the conclusion that an earlier release means a weaker system. Think about Psx and Saturn. Sega had to push the launch date WAY back to compete with Sony because not only did Psx have a lower price point, it had better graphics.

Two consoles released at the same time have equal opprotunity. But it depends on the reigon it's released in too! Imagine if Xbox 2 and Ps3 were exactly the same (power wise)... except:

Ps3
NA Launch: 10-26-06
Japan Launch: 10-26-05

Xbox 2
NA Launch: 11-15-05
Japan Launch: 11-15-06

In Japan Ps3 would be just as powerful but released a year before, in US Xbox2 would be just as powerful and released a year before. Thus making it possible for a console to be released earlier and still be equal/more powerful.

-EDIT-

But if this were to happen, methinks Xbox's chances in Japan would be very slim depending on what Nintendo does. But, Microsoft would have a above average chance of smashing Sony in the US. For some reason, I see the next generation for Microsoft (because of the US base) being a worldwide release.

[TheGame]

Originally posted by gekko
I doubt it. They wanted a worldwide release this generation. The reality is its too hard to pull off. For one that's way too many consoles to manufacture in a short period. And the launch lineups would also suffer. Most games don't get done in time for launch, now you expect them to be done it time, and translated and made for multiple regions? Not a chance.

But you have to admit, M$ is the only company capable of handleing it.

Thier internal development houses are in US.. that means the US version of everything comes first. While the third party support rests in Japan. US could just get a more first party launch with 3rd party games later, while japan could have more of a third party launch with the 1st party US games later.

Nintendo and Sony don't have this luxury... they develop everything in Japan to start then port it to america... that's why Japan can always get the consoles first. MS could work both sides of the time line at the same time.

I have a feeling MS will promise a worldwide release. But they won't deliver. I think they'll go with Japan first, because that's where they need help.

Japan first? That would be a stupid move... who thinks Xbox 2 will do good in Japan anyway?

Also, like I said before, all thier first and second party developers are based here... so what will they do? Complete the games in english, then port to japanese and release4 it there first for the hell of it?

If the system is finished, and the games in english are finished, they won't wait to release it in US. That would be just as stupid as Nintendo releasing thier console in Europe before Japan... there's no point.

[TheGame]

Originally posted by PuPPeT
Umm No there not Microsoft has quite a few teams based in Japan well ok they only have 5 but it's a start! Most of the teams have been outsourced to other developers in Japan for the last year (To try and get more games) but they have at lest 3 in house games being made as we type in Japan.

Ok, then the "majority" of them are here (better?)



If they complete games in english first, and get some third party support from US developers (EA and US's Sega houses)... I don't see why they wouldn't release it here first.

[TheGame]

Gekko, the line-up couldn't be any worse than a Japanese Ps2 that launches at the same time.

Half assed launch or not, it would be the same or greater than the Ps3 launch if it came out world wide at the same time, right?

*looks at Ps2's japanese launch*

You can't tell me timing isn't everything.

[Joeiss]

Just as long as the next consoles use like the 256 MB memory sticks, I'll be happy. DVD Playback, 4 controller ports, HD, ethernet.... blah blah blah. Everybody will have everything from this generation... PLus more.

[Joeiss]

Yeah... DVD players were, and are, so expensive in Japan. I don't know why, though.

[Perfect Stu]

releasing XBox 2 before PS3 will be a big mistake for Microsoft, for 3 reasons IMO:

1) You're rushing the system...milk the XBox for everything its worth, and give your fans a good 5-6 year lifespan for the system...cutting off the life of the XBox will anger some fans, who may then decide not to buy Microsoft's next system

2) By releasing Xbox 2 before anything else, Microsoft will lose the biggest wild card they have this generation: superior hardware (graphics)

3) Although Microsoft really can't avoid this, the XBox 2 will lose an edge on the competition. Built in hard drive and ethernet ports will be standard with the PS3.