The Motion Controls War

[BreakABone]

This is a topic I promised I would revisit once e3 came, and now that e3 has come and gone, I think we can get a better understanding of what Microsoft and Sony hope to accomplish with their new devices.

First up is MS with its newly named Kinect (a name I personally prefer over Project Natal). The only issue I have with the name is it just reeks of something that was cooked up in dozens of marketing meetings and focus groups. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure a lot of devices are made that way, but this one just wears it on the sleeve.

Anyhow, based on MS' over-the-top roll-out and their presentation at e3, this is a device focused solely on getting the Xbox into the hands of more families. It has games that on paper should appeal to a more mass-market audience and features that works for a techno-geek.

Sony on the other hand, took a sharp turn with their PS Move in comparison to what they showed at GDC, most of their games at e3 focused on more traditional experiences such as Sorcery and Tiger Woods. This is a device with an identity crisis though.

Between GDC and e3, Sony has shown that they want to focus this device at the core and mass-markets, but it really doesn't seem dedicated to either direction.

Based on their showing, I think the PS Move has the most potential, but that Kinect will sell better.

For two simple reasons,
1) Sony doesn't know what it wants, that's been their problem this entire generation. They want to be a game player, they want to be a blu-ray player, an internet browser, HOME to become an experience, they want to leverage 3D and now motion. Sony is a jack of all trades master of none so they can never really settle on a market to sell to.

2) Kinect looks different. PS Move looks like an advanced version of the Wii, there are over 70 million Wii owners, i doubt many of them are looking for an upgrade. On the other hand, Kinect looks like nothing we've ever seen before (at least on a mass-market level) And once people get to go.. experience it, I can see it sparking some interest in the device. The biggest hurdle of course will be the price they settle on.

Anyhow, my thoughts on Kinect and PS Move. Yours?

[Xantar]

Well, they're both going to fail miserably. I think Kinect will fail less miserably but not for the same reason you do. I think it will sell better than the Move because it is a single device unlike the Move which could require three separate purchases. I'm sure the Move will also be sold as a bundle, but imagine all the sales people having to explain to customers that they do not have to buy everything if they already own an EyeToy or that they can use the Dual Shock 3 in one hand if they would like.

Nonetheless, Kinect seems to be stillborn before it even launches. It apparently can't recognize the human form sitting down. And now we hear that it can't deal with more than two human figures at a time. I'm not sure if it's possible for Microsoft to undercut the promise of their own product any more than they already have. At least it took a year before people realized that the Wii couldn't actually do 1:1 controls (as much as I don't think any console should anyhow).

[Dylflon]

I still think motion control is bullshit and is not the future.

Though I think people said this about cinema so who knows...

[BreakABone]

Originally Posted by Dylflon

I still think motion control is bullshit and is not the future.

Though I think people said this about cinema so who knows...

Don't hide your feelings.

The next two years are gonna be rough for you.

I still believe that motion controls are the future, but it will be done in a way that combines the tech like PS Move does with the camera and a controller, but done better and in the box.

[TheSlyMoogle]

I hope motion controls die in a fire.

[Vampyr]

I can honestly say if motion controls are the future I will quit playing video games. :P

[Typhoid]

You guys prove the point I was just making to Babsy that if motion controls do become the future, our generation which grew up with button controllers will be alienated.

Nobody likes doing bad at things they've previously been good at, which is why [for example] Dylflon, his brother and our friends don't use the Wiimote for Smash, or MarioKart. We use GC controllers.

And since we've spent our entire gaming life with chunky controllers that you keep entirely still, we'll be alienated compared to an 8 year old who probably hasn't even held an N64 controller before.

[manasecret]

I'm all for motion controls, especially as they get perfected. They make many games a lot more intuitive. And it's not like they will ever totally usurp regular controllers.

All you get off my lawn people need to look at how old you're already acting. Things change, and if you don't change with it, life will pass you by. Video games... bringing us serious life lessons from day one.

[Vampyr]

It not so much not being good at them as it is:

1. The average person will -never- be able to be as precise shaking something or waving their arm as they are timing a button press. You might get a prodigy once in a while who can, but that's it.

2. I don't want to stand or move anything other than my hands and eyes. I work all day. I go to the gym four days a week. I play games to relax.

[Xantar]

Originally Posted by Vampyr

It not so much not being good at them as it is:

1. The average person will -never- be able to be as precise shaking something or waving their arm as they are timing a button press. You might get a prodigy once in a while who can, but that's it.

See, that's the problem with most of the motion control games so far (including many of Nintendo's). A controller motion isn't a button press and shouldn't be used that way. But too many games treat the motion as a substitute for a button press.

We don't need more games that work better with a traditional controller. We need more games that work better with motion controls. Games like first person shooters or World of Goo or Wii Bowling or Tiger Woods Golf or Boom Blox. Games that require precisely timed button presses should stick with controllers. We need whole new genres to properly take advantage of motion controls in ways nobody has seen before, and we are only just starting to get to that point.

[BreakABone]

Originally Posted by Xantar

See, that's the problem with most of the motion control games so far (including many of Nintendo's). A controller motion isn't a button press and shouldn't be used that way. But too many games treat the motion as a substitute for a button press.

We don't need more games that work better with a traditional controller. We need more games that work better with motion controls. Games like first person shooters or World of Goo or Wii Bowling or Tiger Woods Golf or Boom Blox. Games that require precisely timed button presses should stick with controllers. We need whole new genres to properly take advantage of motion controls in ways nobody has seen before, and we are only just starting to get to that point.

Hey, I get to pimp something I wrote the other day

http://nerdsontherocks.com/?p=201

Some of the ideas that I thought have been noble this gen in terms of motion.

1. The average person will -never- be able to be as precise shaking something or waving their arm as they are timing a button press. You might get a prodigy once in a while who can, but that's it.

I agree with this to a degree.
This is why I don't get why gamers/media/journalist are begging for true 1:1 controls. 1:1 doesn't make a game more fun if anything it makes it more tedious and show how your lack of skill in a real life carries over to a game.

That said, if you can track the player into believe that their actions are well-represented on the screen than I think motion controls are working.

[Dylflon]

Originally Posted by manasecret

I'm all for motion controls, especially as they get perfected. They make many games a lot more intuitive. And it's not like they will ever totally usurp regular controllers.

All you get off my lawn people need to look at how old you're already acting. Things change, and if you don't change with it, life will pass you by. Video games... bringing us serious life lessons from day one.

Get the hell off my lawn, manasecret.

[BreakABone]

Bonus Round ep dealing with the fall-out from e3

[v1zzy]

I hate motion controls. If I wanted to move my arms I'd reach out for a slice of pizza, as for gaming count me out. If gaming needs to change then they should change it to make gaming easier, perhaps a "matrix" type of controller? Where you plug something on the back of your head and it brings you in the video game and you get to control everything with your mind? Now that would be awesome..

[BreakABone]

Investor is pretty high on the possibility of MS to sell Kinect
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...yr-caris-says/

"Microsoft (MSFT) Kinect, the company’s new motion and voice control add-on for the Xbox 360, could generate $2 billion in incremental consumer spending on video games in the first year after launch, with 50%-60% of that going to Microsoft itself, Caris & Co. analyst Sandeep Aggarwal asserts in a research note.

He sees four ways Kinect can help Microsoft:

* “Material” attach rate for 40 million Xbox 360 installed base; he expects 15%-25% of current owners to buy Kinect in the first year. A 15% attach rate at $149 would mean almost $900 million in incremental hardware revenue.
* Higher adoption and market share gain for the console. He figures the company could sell an incremental one million consoles in the first year, or about $300 million in incremental revenue.
* Sale of new software titles.
* Lower attrition and higher gross subscriber growth for Xbox Live."

15-25% of current console owners would be between 6-10 million Kinect units sold in the first year, which is a pretty... well high figure in my estimate.

Also, I was trying to think, but what does everyone think will be the killer app for the PSMove?