Yes, that would be a dumb move on Nintendo's part. It's like lately, they're affraid to deliver vicious blows.
Lately, every damn thing they do seem way too conservative.
Anyway, let's keep things in perspective and remember that details are still quite sketchy. From what I know...
A Pokemon GameCube game has long been in development. I
seriously doubt that they'd take that long with a mere spin-off, "franchise milker" type game.
It's also quite possible that they're indeed making an RPG, and a Pokemon Stadium mode will be included, making both outlooks true at the same time. Well, time will reveal all, enventually.