Quote:
Originally Posted by Bond
I don't have a membership, but there is honestly no factual evidence, or at least a rational argument made to support the predictions? That just seems absurd. I can't imagine any serious investor would pay for a report that fails to even attempt to justify its predictions.
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I'm sure there is some kind of attempt made to justify the prediction. All I know is that the full article (the one you can read with a membership) says that they use some combination of a math formula, market research and secret sauce. And there's a link for anybody interested in purchasing the full report (if you want to try it, be my guest).
But the point is I don't know of any conceivable justification for the PS3 seeing its sales shoot up half again over while the Wii and Xbox 360 drop precipitously. And as I demonstrated with a quote from a previous prediction, these people have been wildly wrong.
The thing is these people are not atypical. A few years ago, a different analyst firm came up with some other hilariously bad numbers which you can read about
here (full disclosure: this is my blog, but I'm honestly not trolling for hits). These particular people predicted that by the end of 2009, the PS3 would have sold 38.7 million units, the Xbox 360 26.8 million and the Wii would have 41.9 million. And this prediction was made in 2007 when the Wii had already experienced the biggest first year of any videogame console ever.
So I guess my question is how do you guys think analysts keep getting away with this stuff?