[manasecret]

I don't have any numbers, but I think they can probably coexist separately for a long time, for several reasons:

1. Cell phones don't have a true gaming interface. No D-pad, no analog stick, no big gaming buttons or shoulder buttons. Not that cell phones couldn't integrate those, but then it would be more of a handheld console than a cell phone and probably much harder to sell to the cell phone masses.

2. As I understand it, most games on the iPhone and elsewhere are games-lite. There are no or very few epic games like you can find on the DS or PSP. How many full-fledged, epic Metroid-type or Zelda-type games do the cell phones have? 0?

3. And speaking of that, the market always goes to where the games are. Whoever has the epic and good games, and has more of them, will do fine in the market.

4. If anything, I think the handheld market will steal from the cell phone market in this fight. People will always need cell phones, and people will always want full-fledged handheld consoles, but I think the vast majority do not want both in one product. This goes, I think, especially for people buying primarily for the cell phone. Going back to point 1, if you add video game style buttons to a cell phone, people will think of it as a handheld and so it won't appeal to the masses of cell phone buyers. But, if you add calling capibilities and app store style games to a handheld, it wouldn't detract from the handheld-ness of it and so would likely sell even more to the handheld-market and even steal some from the cell phone market.

So both markets can I think coexist quite happily, and if anything the handheld market will benefit from the rise of cell-phone games. It's like the fact that you could play every single game that comes out on a console on a PC instead (if it were so made), but obviously the market allows PCs and consoles to coexist quite well, and the consoles actually do far better than PCs in game sales.