BJW, of all the things you stated, no.3 is the most likely.
another closely related possibility is:
Even after delaying the game so it comes out the same time as the modem, it's still possible for Sega to release the game a bit ahead(usually, if a game is done, publishers want to release it ASAP).
Going that route, Sega most definitely will advertise the game's online capabilities, making it clear that the modem is just around the corner. To execute that, they'll need accurate dates though. (that why Sega really need some feedback from Nintendo, about when the modem will be available)
on a different note...
It's also easy to see Nintendo as the bad one here, because they have Sega in the dark. But knowing N, their hardware must be of assured quality, and function correctly. It would be worst to give Sega a date, then before you know it, Sega is in hot water with an online game and a modem that will be delayed to who knows when. I believe that is the case, and rather than to blame either Sega or Nintendo, I realize that things will happen only when time permits them to. So good luck to them both.
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