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it really all depends on sony and nintendo as to how well MS does with a 05 launch. (more so on sonys side). Depends on what they're offering, and at what point they get the hype for it started.

Personally i think MS will be fine with the launch, Part of Sega's problem was they did that early launch after another failed system. xbox didnt fail, and its collecting steam as it goes into the next console launch, not losing it. an early launch would really hurt nintendo rather then MS.