GameTavern - View Single Post - Neo's expert electoral college predictions

Neo · 10-14-2004, 01:51 PM

After careful analysis of the polls, population trends and previous election results I've come to the following conclusions concerning who will win the presidency.

To start off with I award the electoral votes for the states that are strong for a candidate or leaning in that direction. That gives 223 for Bush and 216 for Kerry, with the election to be decided in the swing states which will vote the following ways, because I say so:

Ohio - 20 votes
18% of voters are undecided, and undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger. But it won't be enough in Ohio as a strong conservative showing will give Bush the edge by 20,000 votes.

New Mexico - 5 votes
Gore narrowly won in 2000, and a surge of Democratic registration will give this state to Kerry.

Nevada - 5 votes
Bush carries. Just accept it.

Iowa - 7 votes
Polls have recently flipped giving Kerry a slight edge. Undecided voters will solidify the lead.

Wisconsin - 10 votes
This state may have gone for Gore but heavy GOP registration will turn this one around for Bush.

Pennsylvania - 21 votes
Recent polls put this toss-up state almost into the "leaning Kerry" column. Plus the denial of Nader's ballot wishes gives this one to Kerry.

New Hampshire - 4 votes
Latest results give Kerry 6% margin. Liberal leaning voters have bled in from surrounding states.

Florida - 27 votes
The most critical state. Hurricane disaster relief may bolster GOP sympathy. In the end though, angry disenfranchised black voters exact revenge for the 2000 election. Kerry wins by 1500 votes.

Final tally: Bush - 254, Kerry - 284. John Kerry wins the presidency. Final total takes into account the likelihood of Colorado splitting its 9 votes.

10-14-2004, 01:51 PM	#1
Neo Former CEO Neo is offline Location: Longhorn country Now Playing: Silent Hill: Downpour Posts: 6,528	Neo's expert electoral college predictions After careful analysis of the polls, population trends and previous election results I've come to the following conclusions concerning who will win the presidency. To start off with I award the electoral votes for the states that are strong for a candidate or leaning in that direction. That gives 223 for Bush and 216 for Kerry, with the election to be decided in the swing states which will vote the following ways, because I say so: Ohio - 20 votes 18% of voters are undecided, and undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger. But it won't be enough in Ohio as a strong conservative showing will give Bush the edge by 20,000 votes. New Mexico - 5 votes Gore narrowly won in 2000, and a surge of Democratic registration will give this state to Kerry. Nevada - 5 votes Bush carries. Just accept it. Iowa - 7 votes Polls have recently flipped giving Kerry a slight edge. Undecided voters will solidify the lead. Wisconsin - 10 votes This state may have gone for Gore but heavy GOP registration will turn this one around for Bush. Pennsylvania - 21 votes Recent polls put this toss-up state almost into the "leaning Kerry" column. Plus the denial of Nader's ballot wishes gives this one to Kerry. New Hampshire - 4 votes Latest results give Kerry 6% margin. Liberal leaning voters have bled in from surrounding states. Florida - 27 votes The most critical state. Hurricane disaster relief may bolster GOP sympathy. In the end though, angry disenfranchised black voters exact revenge for the 2000 election. Kerry wins by 1500 votes. Final tally: Bush - 254, Kerry - 284. John Kerry wins the presidency. Final total takes into account the likelihood of Colorado splitting its 9 votes. __________________ I write for Cracked. So can you!