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Is the Golden Age of RPG done?

This has been a notion among gamers for most of this generation, but recently with Nintendo choosing not to bring over 3 of their key jRPGs franchises, it seems like the gaming world as a whole has woken up to the belief.

Here is an article from 1up.com

Quote:

It's over. It no longer makes economic sense to bring most Japanese titles over to the west -- particularly RPGs. Sure, the Konamis and the Capcoms of the world will keep putting out their AAA titles, but the industry is heading back to a state more like the mid-'90s where JRPGs are few, quirky and charming titles are left untranslated, and fans of Japanese developers are left to beg publishers in vain for their most anticipated games.

The recent grassroots attempt to persuade Nintendo to bring over Xenoblade, Pandora's Tower, and The Last Story to America or the west will likely fail to persuade decision makers at the company because they understand the business reality. Localizing a Japanese game and releasing it at retail is an expensive undertaking, and industry forces, including piracy, changing gamer tastes, and platform owner licensing rules have rendered it an unprofitable one. A few specialty publishers who are very good at dealing with Japanese games remain, but even they have cut back on releases in recent years.

Just a few years ago, it seemed like any game that did reasonably well in Japan would find a home in Europe and America. Strategy RPGs, rougelikes, and games from every other niche genre in Japan filled the release calendars. Fans could take it for granted that most anticipated titles would eventually find their way out of Japan. While not every title made the trip westward --Mother 3 and Namco X Capcom were conspicuous in their absence -- most games of note did. Compare that to today: while the PSP continues to be the platform of choice for hardcore gamers in Japan, the system is effectively dead elsewhere in the world. Nintendo is holding back three separate hardcore Wii titles, while the number of games that Japan-focused publishers like NIS or Atlus release each year is steadily dropping.

"A lot of variables have to fall into place on each and every game as any number of factors can instantly kill a publishing deal," says Ken Berry, Director of Publishing at Xseed Games, a publisher that specializes in Japanese titles. "Factors including the game's quality as determined by our staff, the cost (both to license and to localize), and the projected sales volume, all influence the games the Xseed publishes. As passionate as we are about licensing good games, we can't knowingly go into a project that is likely to lose money, no matter how great the game may be."

A number of factors have reduced viability of niche Japanese titles, piracy being chief among them. As the west turned to HD console games at the beginning of the current console cycle, Japanese gamers both hardcore and casual turned to handhelds. Nearly all major Japanese RPG developers stuck to PSP/PS2-level hardware. At the same time, PSP piracy began eating into sales in America and Europe. By the time the Monster Hunter craze took off in 2008, piracy made it nearly impossible to release a viable game on the platform outside of Japan. Meanwhile, the popularity of R4 flash carts and stolen ROMs on the DS exploded amongst Japanese consumers. Stores in Akihabara and other major Japanese retail districts sold and advertised the devices openly. With PSP piracy low in Japan and DS piracy sky-high, and both rampant abroad, developers made the logical choice and pushed PSP games even harder, given that the domestic market was their priority.

The situation is even worse today, but piracy alone isn't to blame. It's merely eaten into an already slim profit margin that was under strain from distribution costs. "The realities of producing and shipping physical goods has definitely had an impact on our ability to take chances on smaller, niche titles for platforms such as Nintendo DS, Nintendo Wii, and PSP. It's especially dire for the DS, if only because there is a multitude of interesting titles in Japan that will likely never find their way stateside," says former 1UP editor and current Director of Business Development at Ignition Entertainment, Shane Bettenhausen.

This is the first of 3 pages, won't copy it all, they deserve some hits, but thoughts?
http://www.1up.com/features/golden-a...st-story-xseed