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-   -   First Presidential Debate (http://www.gametavern.net/forums/showthread.php?t=22572)

The Germanator 11-03-2012 08:03 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor S (Post 284419)
One area of concern for the Obama campaign is that he isn't above 50% in any major poll. Also, many of the polls are using 2008 turnout models, and it's yet to be seen if 2012 will mirror 2008 in terms of minority and youth voting.
Again, are you talking national polls? Nate Silver just posted about how Obama is leading in 19/20 of swing state polls that came out today...If he wins just a few of those (especially Ohio), it's simple he'll win...And the polls are especially strong in Ohio.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ically-biased/

Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium is even more bullish on Obama, basically giving him a 98% chance to win. He was even more accurate than Silver last election.

http://election.princeton.edu/

Professor S 11-03-2012 10:54 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Germanator (Post 284422)
Again, are you talking national polls? Nate Silver just posted about how Obama is leading in 19/20 of swing state polls that came out today...If he wins just a few of those (especially Ohio), it's simple he'll win...And the polls are especially strong in Ohio.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ically-biased/

Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium is even more bullish on Obama, basically giving him a 98% chance to win. He was even more accurate than Silver last election.

http://election.princeton.edu/
I'm looking at the RCP information, and considering past history of incumbents with less than a 50% polling average, and well behind in independent voters. As I said, the current models are anticipating something close to a 2008 turn out, and that would mean an Obama victory. If dems do not come out in large numbers, Romney's lead with independents will likely lead him to victory.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

I have a feeling this is going to be a weird election night with some serious surprises going both ways. I have this nagging feeling PA is in play...

TheGame 11-04-2012 08:19 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
I think the voter turn out will be high, which is the only good thing about the media's 'falsely balanced' coverage. People who are pro Obama actually think he can lose, so they'll be more likely to vote... If the media told the truth and labeled it as Obama being clearly ahead all the time, then it would probably cost him some votes.

Jason1 11-05-2012 09:47 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
I dont think there is any way Obama loses.


...But im going to vote just to be safe.

Professor S 11-05-2012 10:03 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
Looking at the latest polling data, I have no idea who is going to win. Romney's momentum seemed to stop when Sandy hit the east coast, and Pres. Obama saw a spike of independent support as undecideds started the melt away in the last week.

Then again, there seems to be a last minute Romney surge in PA, and several prominent Bishops just openly endorsed Mitt, or more accurately came out against Pres. Obama. Pres. Obama took the observant Catholic vote in 2008.

I still think this comes down to turnout, and that waits to be seen. A push always goes to the house, so if I were forced to make a call, I would call Pres. Obama winning re-election. Still voting in case I'm wrong, though. :D

The Germanator 11-05-2012 10:36 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
Definitely voting! Nate Silver has Obama up to a 92.2 % chance of winning tonight! Looking good.

Still have my nervous celebration/sadness beers for tomorrow night.

Bond 11-05-2012 10:57 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
I'll say 289-249, Romney.

Professor S 11-06-2012 12:05 AM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
What about this nightmare scenario... *shudder*

TheGame 11-06-2012 12:48 AM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bond (Post 284434)
I'll say 289-249, Romney.
I'd be extremely shocked. lol

I can't really give set numbers, but I think Obama's winning florida, likely going to break 300 electoral votes. Popular vote, idk.

Teuthida 11-06-2012 12:22 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 


Quote:
My wife and I went to the voting booths this morning before work. There were 4 older ladies running the show and 3 voting booths that are similar to a science fair project in how they fold up. They had an oval VOTE logo on top center and a cartridge slot on the left that the volunteers used to start your ballot.

I initially selected Obama but Romney was highlighted. I assumed it was being picky so I deselected Romney and tried Obama again, this time more carefully, and still got Romney. Being a software developer, I immediately went into troubleshoot mode. I first thought the calibration was off and tried selecting Jill Stein to actually highlight Obama. Nope. Jill Stein was selected just fine. Next I deselected her and started at the top of Romney's name and started tapping very closely together to find the 'active areas'. From the top of Romney's button down to the bottom of the black checkbox beside Obama's name was all active for Romney. From the bottom of that same checkbox to the bottom of the Obama button (basically a small white sliver) is what let me choose Obama. Stein's button was fine. All other buttons worked fine.

I asked the voters on either side of me if they had any problems and they reported they did not. I then called over a volunteer to have a look at it. She him hawed for a bit then calmly said "It's nothing to worry about, everything will be OK." and went back to what she was doing. I then recorded this video.

EDIT: There is a lot of speculation that the footage is edited. I'm not a video guy, but if it's possible to prove whether a video has been altered or not, I will GLADLY provide the raw footage to anyone who is willing to do so. The jumping frames are a result of the shitty camera app on my Android phone, nothing more.

manasecret 11-09-2012 11:14 AM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
Hindsight is 20/20, but sure seemed to be cognitive dissonance going on here by Bond/Professor S (EDIT: Oops, my fault, I hadn't kept up with Prof's latest posts). All the aggregate polls I saw (I think one of which was the one Germanator referenced) had Mitt's chances at less than 10%. PA in particular went landslide to Obama, didn't it?

Am I wrong?

Professor S 11-09-2012 11:37 AM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by manasecret (Post 284517)
Hindsight is 20/20, but sure seemed to be cognitive dissonance going on here by Bond/Professor S. All the aggregate polls I saw (I think one of which was the one Germanator referenced) had Mitt's chances at less than 10%. PA in particular went landslide to Obama, didn't it?

Am I wrong?
Can someone please explain to me how my estimation that Pres. Obama was going to WIN is cognitive dissonance on my part?

manasecret 11-10-2012 02:06 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor S (Post 284518)
Can someone please explain to me how my estimation that Pres. Obama was going to WIN is cognitive dissonance on my part?
Oops, sorry about that. I hadn't been reading your latest posts close enough apparently. Fixed my original post.

On another topic, can you explain a little more why you thought PA was in play?

Bond 11-10-2012 06:01 PM
Re: First Presidential Debate
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by manasecret (Post 284517)
Hindsight is 20/20, but sure seemed to be cognitive dissonance going on here by Bond/Professor S (EDIT: Oops, my fault, I hadn't kept up with Prof's latest posts). All the aggregate polls I saw (I think one of which was the one Germanator referenced) had Mitt's chances at less than 10%. PA in particular went landslide to Obama, didn't it?

Am I wrong?
Discussion moved into this thread (my explanation is second from top): http://www.gametavern.net/forums/sho...t=22677&page=3


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