Neo's expert electoral college predictions

[Neo]

After careful analysis of the polls, population trends and previous election results I've come to the following conclusions concerning who will win the presidency.

To start off with I award the electoral votes for the states that are strong for a candidate or leaning in that direction. That gives 223 for Bush and 216 for Kerry, with the election to be decided in the swing states which will vote the following ways, because I say so:

Ohio - 20 votes
18% of voters are undecided, and undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger. But it won't be enough in Ohio as a strong conservative showing will give Bush the edge by 20,000 votes.

New Mexico - 5 votes
Gore narrowly won in 2000, and a surge of Democratic registration will give this state to Kerry.

Nevada - 5 votes
Bush carries. Just accept it.

Iowa - 7 votes
Polls have recently flipped giving Kerry a slight edge. Undecided voters will solidify the lead.

Wisconsin - 10 votes
This state may have gone for Gore but heavy GOP registration will turn this one around for Bush.

Pennsylvania - 21 votes
Recent polls put this toss-up state almost into the "leaning Kerry" column. Plus the denial of Nader's ballot wishes gives this one to Kerry.

New Hampshire - 4 votes
Latest results give Kerry 6% margin. Liberal leaning voters have bled in from surrounding states.

Florida - 27 votes
The most critical state. Hurricane disaster relief may bolster GOP sympathy. In the end though, angry disenfranchised black voters exact revenge for the 2000 election. Kerry wins by 1500 votes.

Final tally: Bush - 254, Kerry - 284. John Kerry wins the presidency. Final total takes into account the likelihood of Colorado splitting its 9 votes.

[Bond]

I hope this is meant to be a joke...

You do have the right idea about Wisconsin though.

[Xantar]

The three critical states are Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. No candidate in recent memory has ever been able to win without also winning at least two of these three. So forget New Hampshire. Never mind Nevada. It seems to me that Florida is leaning towards Bush since his brother is the governor there. So it's going to come down to Ohio and Pennsylvania.

And I vote in Pennsylvania. :)

[The Germanator]

And I vote in Pennsylvania. :)

Ditto. :)

[Stonecutter]

Lucky people whose votes really matter.

IMO, Ohio lost too many jobs to outsourcing to go to Bush, and the whole thing with the Coal (or maybe it's steal) tariffs should give Penn to Bush. The smaller states are still going to make a difference because you can't get swept in them and still expect to win. In addition to Neo's states, Arizona is still up for grabs IMO, as is Minnesota.

[DeathsHand]

Lucky people whose votes really matter.

If only there were no electoral college...... *strokes beard*

[dropCGCF]

Newsweek is the most reliable for stats like this.

[Professor S]

And I vote in Pennsylvania. :)

Same here. ;)

[Neo]

In an amazing turn of events Kerry has taken a 4 point lead in Ohio, something I never thought possible. If trends continue Kerry will win both Ohio and Pennsylvania. And for an interesting take on poll numbers go to http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/11/point.spread/index.html.

The majority of the American people didn't want Bush, and we don't have to keep him.

Bush is going down.

[Ace195]

You guys still have to remember one thing.. Absentee Ballot for all the people overseas.. I don't think they are taking into consideration the guys that are overseas from those states... I bet atleast 2/3's if not more are for bush.. People in the military like him.... Not all I'm not saying that all of us like him.. I do... But most agree with me.

[Neo]

Very true. I believe it's upwards of 70% of the military that supports Bush. How many troops do we have overseas now anyway? The key element in the article I referenced was the notion that the undecided voters break overwhelmingly for the challenger on election day. Will it make a difference?

[Seth]

Party at my house if Kerry wins.

[The Germanator]

Party at my house if Kerry wins.

Man...there will be a huge party on this campus if Kerry wins. I don't even want to imagine what this place will be like if Bush wins...bad news.

[Neo]

I'm starting to get excited after hearing about Ohio. I've become so emotionally involved in this election that I'll probably cry or puke if Bush wins. I'm having my own election-night party with all the amenities, including poison tablets if things turn.....sour.

[Neo]

Kerry now leading in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

[Stonecutter]

Kerry now leading in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In whose polls?

Cause if they ain't Zogby or from a university, they ain't ****.

[Neo]

American Research Poll group, Insider Advantage, Washington Post (tied), Chicago Tribune.

[Neo]

Do you believe these new zogby polls that say Kerry has a 4 point lead in Colorado and Bush has a 5 point lead in New Mexico? Those seem highly unlikely. I also think the Gallup polls are screwed up in general. It's the only poll which gives Bush a significant lead. All the others are statistical ties. I remember in 2000 Gallup said Bush was way ahead but Gore ended up winning the popular vote. Phone polling methodology leaves a lot to be desired. One criticism is that cell phone users cannot be polled. Most cell users are young people and young people favor Kerry.

I now believe that Kerry will win all three of the important states, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. The 2:1 undecided voter model along with the young vote should break the ties in Ohio and Florida. Even if the undecideds break 3:2 it should be enough.

Florida is really the key for Kerry. Without it he has to win Ohio, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, or he has to win Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and either Minnesota or Wisconsin.

[TheGame]

The open support for bush isn't as loud as the open hatred. ;) With that said, I'm sure there will be an outrage if Bush wins, and not one if Kerry wins. And there will be big parties if Kerry wins and probably not as many if Bush wins.

I personally think the electoral college is fair. If anything you should be mad at the people in the bigger states who didn't go out and vote. The voters represent the whole population in the state, if they voted or not... sounds fair to me.