Nintendo--VS--Microsoft [Archive]

TheGame

07-13-2003, 04:40 AM

I think Sega Genesis was superior to SNES in every way I could think of... :)

SNES was ok, but I loved my Sonic way too much.

As for Xbox vs GCN... Well, lets just say Xbox has my #1 and #2 most anticipated games of this generation. (Halo 2 and Perfect Dark 0)

GCN if anything was a step down from N64 and a huge dissapointment in my eyes. Xbox isn't all that great either, but it did FAR better than my expectations while Nintendo did FAR worse than my expectations.

So, I gotta give that battle to Xbox. In raw quality, I say they are equal, but it's like a senior in HS (Nintendo) being equal to a freshman (Microsoft)... who's the better player?

-EDIT-

Oh, and as for the topic on where I think MS will end up... um, I think in the end they will be on top of Nintendo. Why? Because they are taking extra steps to make all Xbox owners happy. The only problems with Xbox are thing MS really have no control over (like Square developing for them)... Nintendo, on the other end, is more worried about making money, and games is where most of thier money lies.

If PSP takes out GBA (even though it's doubtful) Nintendo is doomed unless somthing changes. Thier popularity with there big franchises has only been going down. Also, imo, and in all of my friends, and in all of the people I know offline who loved N64's opinion, the game quality has gone down.

Changing franchises isn't the smartest move imo, there are no more fun WWE games, no more Goldeneye/Perfect Dark, no more moody Zelda, Mario has a squirt gun and a camera that got worse than the first 3d game like that on the market... That smahes most of thier top selling 1st/3rd party games. But we all got our Mario Kart and Smash Brothers so it's all good right :rolleyes:

I think Nintendo could make a comeback, but them failing yet again with the Gamecube may be the thing that spirals them to thier death.

Perfect Stu

07-13-2003, 11:03 AM

If any company were to pull out of the videogame market in the next 5-7 years, I'd say it would be Microsoft. I know they're an enormous company, but they're the only company of the 3 thats losing money (and a lot of it) from their videogame division. Now, they do have a lot to spare, and they seem very dedicated...so I don't see them leaving anytime soon...but big company or not, investors get pissed off when the company is taking huge financial hits. I don't think the XBox will ever become profitable...but I do think that Microsoft has to make sure that their next system will be.

For Nintendo...it's hard to tell. They have a system going that seems to keep raking in moderate amounts of profit consistently, but I don't know how long that can go on. Over the past 7 years they've lost a lot of market share, and the GBA seems to be their foundation. If Sony's PSP can seriously compete with that, we have a whole other story.

Sony is the market leader, and they've recently invested a TON of money into future technology. They have a long term plan in place, so I don't see them stepping out of the videogame market in a LOOONG time.

gekko

07-13-2003, 11:55 AM

Stu got it. Who's beating who in the industry means nothing, it's about who's making money. Nintendo and Sony are both bringing in profits, Xbox is not. They are already taking steps to try to reduce losses on Xbox, but it won't end them. With Xbox 2, Microsoft needs to make a machine that's profitable. If not, it would be a tough sell to corporate execs to let them go on.

There's no garauntees what will happen next generation, history will prove that. Sony has made large amounts of money, and has room to take some initial losses on PS3. They also have enough money to go on if PS3 flops.

Nintendo has been bringing in profits all through N64 and Gamecube's day. You can say they failed, but in all reality, they're not. N64 brought in profits, Gamecube is bringing in profits. Nintendo's far from being in a bad situation financially, because they aren't losing a dime. You don't drop support of something that's bringing in money. Market share means nothing, this is a business, and it's making money. That's all that matters.

Dyne

07-13-2003, 12:49 PM

PuPPeT

07-13-2003, 02:03 PM

Ok first Microsoft has said quite clearly that Xbox is just the start. Also some people inside Microsoft have also said they do not expect and never have expected to make any money on the Xbox. For an company which is thinking of paying its share holders over 10 billion just to lower it's holdings, money really is no problem at all.

No Nintendo will be the next to full out of the market! The signs are already there they have started to lose this generation already where the two cash rich company’s run off with it. Noting Nintendo does seems to help them any more if RE, Mario, Zelda and MP can’t push world wide sales past Microsoft then what the hell will. The fact is Nintendo is out of touch of it’s markets (only a small core of gamers want to play there console any more).

Welcome to the new world of POPULAR gaming
Gone are the days where being a good game was enough to sale it. :(

viruscool

07-13-2003, 03:42 PM

Seth

07-13-2003, 05:07 PM

Microsoft isn't going to pull out of the console market.

How many billions are in the gaming industry each year? Microsoft is here to stay.

As much as I'd like to see Nintendo opperate on their own, it's going to be impossible after another 5 years of Sony and Micro breathing down Nintendo's neck. Sony and Microsoft have unlimited funding. They can afford to make mistakes. Nintendo's been a gaming only company for ever so they don't have the financial security of the other two contenders.

Eventually there's going to be a merger or a bankruptsy.

TheGame

07-13-2003, 05:26 PM

First of all Gekko/Stu... It's not even Mirosoft's intention to make a profit with Xbox. They put it out quite cleary that Xbox is just a tool to put thier foot in the door of the gaming market.... and they are willing t spend whaver it takes to get in.

If they are not even trying to make a profit, how could you count them out?

Imagine if tey weren't about games and were more about Money... I don't thik they woud have purchased Rare or Bungie, Xbox would sill cost $300, and they wouldn't have paid thid parties to make games for them... Xbox would have sucked, and it would have flopped, that should tell you how hard it is to jump in and become a major player in ths industry off of the bat (which MS is doing).

I think thier plan is smart personally... If they would have even thought about making a profit this gen, they would have failed :)

Do they have the best chance of dropping out? No... why? Because they have proven that they can lose milions and millions and still be satisfied with the results. Nintendo on the other end, is my personal pick for the next thing to drop out.

Why? There popularity is falling, and even with a profit in Nintendo's pocket, a lower userbase hurts third party support, and lower third party support hurts the sales, and low sales hurts the third party support, and s on and so on. They are caught in this spiral, just like Sega.

But can they bounce back? HELL yeah! All they have to do is become a gambler like Microsoft, take some risks, grab on to the next big thing before MS or Sony gets to it... but Nintendo's "Stay a generation behind" attitude will be the death of them if it continues.

Null

07-13-2003, 05:27 PM

you'd be surprised how fast the money goes in business. no one has unlimited. And no one needs to run out of money to see whats happening and decide its best to pull out. could be sony, microsoft or nintendo.

i kinda see nintendo to stop making consoles for a bit. just to try and get the image off thier shoulders eventually. then start up again sometime when theres an opertunity to jump in.

Bond

07-13-2003, 05:55 PM

I agree. There's a word I'm looking for Microsoft's plan that fits them perfectly. Ah yes, I'm thinking of... demented. In a good unoffensive way, really. How do they keep going? I wonder if there's going to be a miracle or something and one game sells unexpectedly well. They've already sold North America and Europe.. if they can sell in Japan I'd say they could stay in no problem... but right now? They want to stay in so they can make.. great games, and have other people to enjoy them? Maybe they're like a big charity, or something. I've never seen Microsoft so "generous", but more like "demented".
You fail to see the larger picture. Currently, yes, Microsoft is losing money on the Xbox (although they are still making around eight billion dollars a quarter) but they are not in this for one generation. Microsoft is in the videogame market for the long haul. They need to spend a lot of money at first to get situated and make a name for themselves, and I would add that they are doing that quite successfully. In the next generation and generations to come they will make up their deficits and begin to turn a profit. Microsoft is a company full of intelligent people that knows what they are doing. Although we may always not like their products (Windows), they make a hell of a lot of money, and that's the bottom line. I wouldn't second guess one of the richest companies in the world.

PuPPeT

07-13-2003, 05:57 PM

I dont think you have read the last few posts "PuPPeT". Just because nintendo isnt at the top of the console charts doesnt mean they're not making money. Nintendo are one of the more profitable companies in the gaming industry. So I agree they wont go out anytime soon, i think xbox will be next.

Yes but even Nintendo will tell you almost all of the money is made by the GBA and not the gamecube!!!! The Gamecube has under sold big time yes Nintendo has made money this year but how much of that has come from the Gamecube ?????????

gekko

07-13-2003, 08:44 PM

TheGame, you're on the wrong track here. The only spiral Nintendo happens to be in is going uphill. Every year Nintendo is bringing in more money. Sega on the other hand, had suffered from Sega CD, 32X, Sega Saturn, CDX, Nomad and Dreamcast. Lots of money poured into R&D, lots poured into producing these systems, at a loss, and they didn't sell well so they never made it back in software sales. Even Genesis never produced a profit for Sega. On the other hand, N64 was not the top selling system, but it made a lot of money. Gamecube is not the top selling system, but it made a lot of money. Oh, and Game Boy just happens to be the best selling system of all time, and isn't slowing down. Big money. In fact, Nintendo has never failed to profit from any of their consoles. Financially, Nintendo is looking good, they would never drop out.

Userbase has nothing to do with a company leaving an industry. If that was the case, Apple with 4% of the PC market would be long gone. In reality, they're not gone, and they're profiting. Nintendo is no different. It doesn't matter how many developers are on board, it doesn't matter how many people own your system. What matters if profits. More developers and more sales means more profits, but as long as they are not reporting losses, they wouldn't have to make any cuts, much less dropping out of an entire industry.

As for the Microsoft situation, they're plan was to initially spend money to get their foot in the door, and then earn it back. It's all the old cliche, don't count your chickens before they hatch. Xbox has yet to make a profit, and that's not what Microsoft wants. Microsoft has their foot in the door, they put up the cash in the beginning to get the best hardware, and many exclusives. That phase is over, it's time to profit. Of course, along the way came a few drawbacks for that plan, including all the price cuts which has helped increase losses to Microsoft's Home and Entertainment division, which posts the biggest losses to the company. If they keep up at this pace, they will lose nearly a billion dollars this year. Ouch.

Now we also have the big unknown. How much is it going to cost Microsoft to develop Xbox 2? If Microsoft takes another large loss producing Xbox 2, and Nintendo and Sony both find a way to make profit from their systems, we might again see soon price cuts, and perhaps another 5 years without Xbox bringing it any money.

The reality is that Microsoft has yet to make any money from Xbox, while both competitors are profiting from their systems. Xbox is continually losing money, and is hurting Microsoft financially more than any other division. Initial losses may be part of the plan, but it's getting closer and closer to the time when Microsoft is hoping to make some money, and Xbox losses are getting larger and larger. You can bet the Xbox division is under close watch, and the people in charge are feeling the heat. Microsoft has yet to show that they are capable of making money from game consoles, and considering how unpredictable the gaming industry is, it would not be wise to assume that next generation Xbox is going to be bringing in large profits.

Xbox isn't going away anytime soon, but right now, they are at a far greater risk than Nintendo or Sony.

GameKinG

07-13-2003, 10:54 PM

I know MS's supposed plan, or at least plan to make no profits seem less like a loss, is to make a stance this gen, and profit next. But if they blow the same amount of money next gen, I can seem the failing to get too much profit. So I think thats what would make them second guess this whole video game thing...

TheGame

07-13-2003, 11:44 PM

Userbase has nothing to do with a company leaving an industry. If that was the case, Apple with 4% of the PC market would be long gone. In reality, they're not gone, and they're profiting. Nintendo is no different. It doesn't matter how many developers are on board, it doesn't matter how many people own your system. What matters if profits.

I think "money" matters more than "profits"... the more 'money' you are willing to blow to stop your system from floping directly effects how long you are going to stay on the shelf... more so than profits.

DC made more profits than Xbox, but that doesn't mean Sega had a chance in hell at staying on the shelves longer, does it?

I saw in a interview on G4TV that MS isn't even trying to make a dime of profit for both the Xbox and Xbox 2 generations... MS is in it for the long haul. Nintendo is (and has to) think about Making money in the next 12 months, MS is thinking down the lines of "20 years from now we want to own this industry"

Which completly destroys your point of profit being more important than the user base... MS isn't losing money for thier health, they are osing money so people likeme and you will go out and buy thier console and enjoy it so they can slowly take over.

Nintendo is more worried about profit than userbase because profits is somthing Nintendo needs to stay alive... let Nintendo release one console like Xbox and they would have quit financially within a year of it's life.

Don't get me wrong though, eventually profits are important, but comparing MS to Nintendo in profits now doesn't make a lick of sense.

MS is simply gambling... they are betting money, and because they have tons of money to lose, losing isn't even a problem, but when they lose enough times they will have to get up and leave before they throw too much money away... As long as MS continues to grow as far as the userbase, they will be sticking around for a while... if Xbox 2 does worse than Xbox (not financially, but user base wise), well, lol, that's the end of Microsoft in the gaming industry.

MS is playing for mind share and in the end will try to profit... Nintendo isn't playing for mind share at all, only profits.

If PSP beats GBA, or GBA's big brother (whatever that may be called), Nintendo is doomed because they lost thier easy form of profit and thier mind share.

So to break my Post down:

Microsoft lives if: Each generation thier Mind share gets larger.

Nintendo lives if: They continue making a big profit

Microsoft drops out if: Thier Money wasting experiment doesn't work and Xbox 2 is outsold by it's predicessor.

Nintendo dies if: They stop making a huge profit, and GBA is over ran by PSP.

I think that they both may survive... for a couple of reasons.

1) I don't see GBA being completly killed off

2) Obviously MS buying it's user base is working because they are tied with the second biggest gaming console manufactuer in the world in it's first outting. (not quite Psx, but eh, do you really think Psx would have stood a chance released side by side with N64? ;))

You also gotta take into account that MS won't need to advertize half as hard next time around, and they don't have to sit there and buy out developer after developer again. They also don't have to pay to introduce Xbox live again...

If MS trys to make a profit on Xbox 2, they could, but I think they will still be trying to put more into dominating the mind share... a Sega buyout right before the start of Next gen looks extremely likely imo.

Rndm_Perfection

07-14-2003, 12:45 AM

And the long awaited question... Does it matter?

cube

07-14-2003, 01:44 AM

GameKinG

07-14-2003, 03:30 AM

Nintendo makes a lot of money. Compared to MS its not that much, but Its a lot to keep a company above stable. Nintendo has stood the test of time for over 100 years, Im sure there were hard times in there somewhere, but they managed to pull through, and now their very wealthy, even if they have to battle to keep second place...

Stonecutter

07-14-2003, 03:50 AM

I think that Microsoft should stop making systems with so much power that will never be used, also stop including hard drives, and stop including the modems. yes i know i sound crazy, they are nice things to have, but they cost a lot of money, the average buyer doesnt know how much more powerfull xbox is then ps2, a mom at best buy looking to buy her kid a console wont know the difference. They would definitly be much much more successfull if they put the money into getting some exclusive AAA titles for their console, along with putting more ads out on tv. You might think they have enough ads as is but its better to spend that 100 dollars they are using to buy that fancy hard drive and modem on something that people will remember when shopping. Growth is exponential, if you start out with a **** load of people talking about xbox, the **** load of people who heard from their freinds will tell others. This is what i think happened with the ps2.

I Know the difference, and people who own an xbox generally know the difference.

So much power that it will never be used? Oh no, it's used, it's just that maybe 1/3 of the games on xbox are ps2 ports and developers are too lazy to optomize the games. If you ever wonderd why so many xbox owners hate the ps2, that's the reason why.

And anyone who owns and xbox can tell you just how AWESOME the harddrive is.

One Winged Angel

07-14-2003, 07:46 AM

I have an XBox, and yes, the harddrive is awesome.

PuPPeT

07-14-2003, 07:52 AM

Well I know one thing! Microsoft have set them self’s up well for the next generation even proving to Sony they don’t know every thing. Microsoft have showed they will be a leader Online gaming and if what some people are saying is ture by the end of the next generation it’s all going to be about ONLINE. (Some thing Nintendo suck at giving a really poor GBA link up instead ARF ARF!!!).

Bond

07-14-2003, 09:14 AM

I think that Microsoft should stop making systems with so much power that will never be used, also stop including hard drives, and stop including the modems. yes i know i sound crazy, they are nice things to have, but they cost a lot of money, the average buyer doesnt know how much more powerfull xbox is then ps2, a mom at best buy looking to buy her kid a console wont know the difference. They would definitly be much much more successfull if they put the money into getting some exclusive AAA titles for their console, along with putting more ads out on tv. You might think they have enough ads as is but its better to spend that 100 dollars they are using to buy that fancy hard drive and modem on something that people will remember when shopping. Growth is exponential, if you start out with a **** load of people talking about xbox, the **** load of people who heard from their freinds will tell others. This is what i think happened with the ps2.
LOL.

Watch a hard drive and modem become a standard next generation. And you'll be saying how smart Nintendo was to have included it. :rolleyes:

Jonbo298

07-14-2003, 09:27 AM

I wouldn't mind if the next consoles had the HD and the modem built in. Just as long as the cost doesn't go up by $100 (or more or less [would be better]) just to include those and any other features built in. If the cost was only say $50 more to include those built in, I wouldnt mind. But $100 extra would be a little too much.

cube

07-14-2003, 09:36 AM

I Know the difference, and people who own an xbox generally know the difference.
And anyone who owns and xbox can tell you just how AWESOME the harddrive is.
yeah, i know you know the difference and i know how awesome it is but you, are not the average customer. I was talking about what would be best for business not what would be most enjoyable for you.

So much power that it will never be used? Oh no, it's used, it's just that maybe 1/3 of the games on xbox are ps2 ports and developers are too lazy to optomize the games. If you ever wonderd why so many xbox owners hate the ps2, that's the reason why.

And i dont know if youll believe me but thats EXACTLY what i was trying to say, most games are gonna be multiconsole or ports, so they arent made to use that power, and so, it isnt used.This is also why i said ms should try to get more excusive titles, titles that were made to run on that level of power, not **** that was made to run on a 5 year old ps2.
So, dont flame me as i totally understand what youre thinking.

gekko

07-14-2003, 11:26 AM

I think "money" matters more than "profits"... the more 'money' you are willing to blow to stop your system from floping directly effects how long you are going to stay on the shelf... more so than profits.

DC made more profits than Xbox, but that doesn't mean Sega had a chance in hell at staying on the shelves longer, does it?

Actually, Sega didn't make any profit off of DC. But back to the main topic, you're on the wrong track, again. If you're talking which system will be successful, userbase matters. If you're talking in 20 years who might have the best system, userbase matters. We're not talking about which system will dominate the industry, we're talking about which company would completely go out of business. Right now Nintendo is doing very well, PS2 is doing very well, and Xbox is doing very poorly. Nintendo and Sony are no concearn at all. Which only leaves one company at risk for dropping out, and that's Microsoft. Big risk? No, but Nintendo and Sony wouldn't benefit from leaving the industry. If that was the case, Microsoft might as well drop Windows.

Microsoft made $8 billion in profits last year. This year, Microsoft's Home & Entertainment division is on track to lose $1 billion. If you think either Microsoft or its investors are happy with those numbers, you're crazy. Microsoft didn't plan to profit from Xbox, but you can be assured they didn't expect their losses to increase over time, and they have.

Now when you get back to who is most likely to drop out, you have three choices:

1) Sony - Would make less money
2) Nintendo - Would make less money
3) Microsoft - Would increase profits by 10%

I think it's obvious.

PuPPeT

07-14-2003, 12:24 PM

Microsoft made $8 billion in profits last year. This year, Microsoft's Home & Entertainment division is on track to lose $1 billion. If you think either Microsoft or its investors are happy with those numbers, you're crazy. Microsoft didn't plan to profit from Xbox, but you can be assured they didn't expect their losses to increase over time, and they have.

I don't think any one who has Microsoft share will be unhappy at the mo as they could be on the end of the biggest share holder pay out of all time!!!! Also the Home & Entertainment division of Microsoft was around and losing money well before the Xbox was on the Scene yet it was aloud to do so for over 5 years with out compliant from share holders! How in the light of getting the biggest pay out of all time on top of ever increasing shares really don't care and will let Microsoft moving into what ever areas they want with or with out lose. At the end of the day share holders like my self are only after one thing and that’s money, if the Xbox was stopping them from getting money it would be a problem but its not so get off the subject!!!!

Oh and as for “ we’re not talking about which system will dominate the industry ”! Well you might not be talking that way cuss it makes Nintendo look so bad but the rest of us are (so get over it)!!!!! Also it a bit stupid not to talk that way the company which sales the most console in the end will make the most money back off software sales. I can pretty much guaranty with the next generation of consoles coming so fast Nintendo will not have the time to make its hardware so cheep next time round and if it does not included some of the added in extras you get with the next Sony and Microsoft console it will fail big time and you will see Nintendo full out of the home console market a lot faster then you think is possible.

TheGame

07-14-2003, 01:50 PM

Now when you get back to who is most likely to drop out, you have three choices:

1) Sony - Would make less money
2) Nintendo - Would make less money
3) Microsoft - Would increase profits by 10%

I think it's obvious.

lol... didn't I just say: "Don't get me wrong though, eventually profits are important, but comparing MS to Nintendo in profits now doesn't make a lick of sense."

it's like a gambler... You put money out and in the end hope to get more money back from it. You are the guy standing there saying "Oh man, he just bet $1,000 that the spurs will win the NBA finals, he just lost $1,000 of his income" I am the guy saying "Well, he bet $1,000, but it's too early to say if he has 'lost' the money"

The money MS put down for Xbox to this day is the bet... and the payout goal for MS is in the long run. Nintendo's financial plans stay pretty short-term... and Sony likes to gamble too (losing around $250 on every Ps2 sold at launch in Japan, and $150 at launch in US)

as for the question of who is more likely to drop out... well, MS isn't any more likely to drop out than anybody as long as things go as planned, and right now, this is how they were planning Xbox to start off. Was Nintendo planning for GCN to have less than 15 million in it's first two years on the market? Wasn't Nintendo the ones making reports of how thier profits aren't where they want them to be?

MS (if they were stupid enough) could last forever without profit... but Nintendo not only needs a profit, a nice hulky profit. Thus, imo, making them more likely to drop out or merge.

BreakABone

07-15-2003, 12:41 AM

One thing, I've never got with the Xbox profit deal is this whole planning to lose proft stuff.

I really can't imagine the board meeting

Board Member 1: So what future plans do we have?

Board Member 2: Nothing really, we already got a monopoly on the computer industry, what should we do?

Board Member 3: How about we going into the food indsutry? We can start selling MircoChips?

Board Member 1: Not a bad idea at all, but is htere much money to be mde in that?

*Board Member 2 pulls up some stats* We look to make a profit in the first couple of years, after that it's unpredictable

Board Member 1: Make a profit? No no, you got it all wrong. We are living in the dough at the moment, we need to lose money!

Board member 3: We could always go into gay porn starring Bill Gates that justin fellow keeps e-mailing for it....

Board Member 1: Someone deal with him

*Guards rush in to eliminate Board Member 3*

Board Member 1 points to the waterboy: You, you're a new board member, got any ideas?

Replacement Member: Why not start a handheld to compete with the GameBoy?

Board Member 2: That is a brilliant idea, I mean with such a monopoly on it, we would look like Apple!

Board Member 1: Even better, we could make a console to go up against Nintendo, Sony.. *Checks calender* I forget is Sega making a console today or not?

Board Member 2: I'm not quite sure sir, we can have our people on it!

Board Member 1: How much chance do you think we have of turning a profit?

Board Member 2: nintendo seems to have it's loyal fans and Sony is the "in" thing so we don't stand much of a chance.

*Eyes light up* You mean we will lose money each year?!?!

Board Member 2: I think that is about right, we can get our foot in the door, and maybe turn a profit later on.

Board Member 1: Who cares about later on, we lose money. Get to work on it now!

TheGame

07-15-2003, 01:16 AM

*sigh*

MS is losing money now to build thier userbase up... and once they get a big enough mind share they won't have to spend like they do now to stay on top.

it's that simple.

If MS wouldn't have used this tactic, Xbox would have done worse than Atari Jaguar.

Null

07-15-2003, 08:56 AM

except technically, your userbase drops to 0 everytime you go to release a new console. theres nothing saying your userbase will transfer over to the new console. so you have to spend just as much to market and get that system name out as you did before.

if thier losing money on every console sold.... what exactly is it they are going to do when they believe they have the correct 'userbase' ? make a cheaper system, or sell it for a whole lot more ?

gekko

07-15-2003, 10:35 AM

MS is losing money now to build thier userbase up... and once they get a big enough mind share they won't have to spend like they do now to stay on top.

it's that simple.

If MS wouldn't have used this tactic, Xbox would have done worse than Atari Jaguar.

Null is right. Microsoft has no userbase come Xbox 2. If that were the case, Nintendo would have every NES, SNES, Game Boy and N64 owner jumping on board Gamecube, but they don't.

You can't assume that Microsoft won't have to spend like they do now to stay on top. Microsoft has not made a profitable console, so you can't assume they will be able to. People bought Xbox for a reason. Maybe they want the best graphics and sound, seems reasonable enough. Well now what if they don't have the best? You can't count on that guy buying Xbox 2. Or maybe they do have the best again, but to get the best they need to take another huge loss on the console. Now they're losing money again.

Maybe they bought Xbox because they wanted the HD. Well if all the systems have a HD next generation, you can't count on them buying Xbox 2.

This spending has only gotten Microsoft a name, but a lot of good that does. Atari had a name when they released Jaguar, Sega had a name when they released Saturn and Dreamcast. Let's not forget about Nintendo, by far the biggest name in the gaming industry. They single-handedly revived the gaming industry, and spread it all over the world. They are responsible for many of the greatest games of all time, the most recognizable characters as well as the best selling system and game of all time. Come on, surely if you want to compete with that you need to get your name in the industry by spending a lot of money, right? Damn, I knew Sony did something wrong :unsure:

TheGame

07-15-2003, 02:11 PM

Alright, Gekko, let me kill the Sony comparision right now... Sony came in at a time when Nintendo and Sega screwed up BADLY. That's why it was so easy for them to step in. Also, Sony is Japan based, so people out there accepted them faster than they would ever accept Xbox.

Null is right. Microsoft has no userbase come Xbox 2. If that were the case, Nintendo would have every NES, SNES, Game Boy and N64 owner jumping on board Gamecube, but they don't.

I never said everybody who owns an Xbox would go out and buy an Xbox 2, did I?

Also, Nintendo has a mind share.. built up by it's previous consoles. They don't have to start from 0 like you think... The ONLY thing keeping Nintendo alive today is it's brand recognition.

Why is it going down? Well, let's think... there is a long list of popular games lost in the transition from SNES to N64, and there is a long list of games lost in the transition from N64 to GCN. There is also a large list of popular games gained... but like they say, it's easier to burn a bridge than to build one.

Sony successfully gave a hardcore fan of Psx every reason to buy a Ps2, that's why Ps2 is so successful. Nintendo didn't give every hardcore fan of SNES a reason to buy a N64.. and they didn't give every hardcore fan of N64 to buy a GCN.

Even then, some hardcore 64 fans would buy GCN anyway based off of pure expectations. Microsoft is building a relationship with it's fans... Just like Sony built... and just like Nintendo built. Nintendo is falling because they are losing games, and when you lose games on a console that is only capible of that function, you lose fans. You make newer great games, you gain a solid foundation of fans. Nintendo is doing both at the same time, and thier losses are over-powering thier gains. I mean, hell, are they going to sell retro and the rights to Metriod to MS just because there game didn't sell well?

Also, I'm not assuming thier plan will work, but I know for a fact that as long at thier systems sell better and better with each gen, they will keep throwing money away. That is thier plan, and it is fact... Your userbase will grow if you don't burn bridges, I have seen nothing to prove otherwise.

if thier losing money on every console sold.... what exactly is it they are going to do when they believe they have the correct 'userbase' ? make a cheaper system, or sell it for a whole lot more ?

Well, when they get a mind share like Nintendo's, some zombies who will buy thier top franchises every year... they won't have to spend as much money will they? Imagine if they made a console like Xbox every generation, didn't have to buy off new developers, didn't have to market half as hard, and didn't have to pay for developers to support them initally because developers will already trust it's sales, and even better, don't have to worry about creating this new online gaming service and taking a huge hit again to get fans to come, and finally, didn't have to even worry about how it's going to do in Japan...

They could still release a beast like Xbox and manage to profit... But right now they have to go the extra mile to get "Xbox" out there. Once they have the mind share they can advertize at the same level as sony and cut a hell of a lot of spending for marketing and developers.

I mean, they could always go cheap like Nitendo when they get big enough... and profit even more, but I think they would be more like Sony if things go to plan.

But that's the thing, things have to go to plan... MS is planning for the long run, not the short term, and to stay in a long time you have to have a big Mind share with certain games, ask Nintendo.

The reason I see Nintendo dying before Microsoft is because Nintendo is a independent game company, and like Sega, they can't exactly afford to have any huge mistakes. MS could live through some giant mistakes in the future, and the userbase would be thier incentive to keep going... and like I said earlier in the thread.. if Xbox 2 sells less than Xbox, MS is a sure thing to drop out because they won't achive thier goal of having enough solid fans to keep them alive.

playa_playa

07-16-2003, 12:44 AM

Heh, I thought MS's profit expectation utterly shattered itself when I saw my friend's piracy setup w/ the Xbox. Some of you may be familiar w/ it, so I won't reiterate it. But suffice it to say, it's even more convenient than DC pirating (something that I thought wouldn't be possible). When he started playing pirated Halo broadband games against other players w/ pirated copies, I thought that all pretensions of Xbox being a console fell apart quicker than porky's cottage under hurricane Andrew.

However, with the user-friendliness of Xbox's OS coupled w/ its computer-like setup makes stopping this piracy a certain quagmire. This would have to mean that whatever MS decides to do against piracy will have to be relegated to future preventions that will be inherent to its next console.

Unless MS conjures up a way to stop this deep-seated piracy, I see the potential profit margin of Xbox going down the toilet. While this may not phase MS initially, it will make their future console endeavors that much more precarious. Therefore, inferring that MS will not be able to offer as attractive offer as the Xbox for its successor would be a prudent deduction.

My guess as to the magnitude of the impact on MS? Let's put it this way: they certainly won't be hurting all that much nor will they give up their amibitions for console market domination (MS's total revenue is way to large for that to happen). However, it will reduce their options as to how they can approach their next console

Stonecutter

07-16-2003, 02:03 AM

fell apart quicker than porky's cottage under hurricane Andrew.

I don't even care to comment on anything else, but being a master of obscure references myself I must say that's damn good. At least for these boards where 50% of the members probably have never seen porky's and a good amount wouldn't remember hurricane andrew.

playa_playa

07-16-2003, 03:22 AM

I don't even care to comment on anything else, but being a master of obscure references myself I must say that's damn good. At least for these boards where 50% of the members probably have never seen porky's and a good amount wouldn't remember hurricane andrew.

Um, thanks...I guess. But I seriously thought it'd be transparent.

Good stuff.

TheGame

07-16-2003, 01:18 PM

Um... I saw more piracy on Psx than any console in my life.. and that didn't exactly hurt the userbase did it? MS wants user right now, not money.

GameKinG

07-16-2003, 03:03 PM

I think because of the piracy, PSX's userbase increaed, because they could get free games.

Joeiss

07-16-2003, 04:02 PM

Free games? Hell no. Blank CDs cost about a buck back then.

;)

gekko

07-16-2003, 04:58 PM

Um... I saw more piracy on Psx than any console in my life.. and that didn't exactly hurt the userbase did it? MS wants user right now, not money.

You really are getting everything backwards in this debate. Console sales hurt Microsoft, software sales help Microsoft. The more people who buy Xboxes, the more money Microsoft will lose. Now if those people don't buy games, Microsoft will never make back the cost. So if 20 million people go out and buy Xbox to pirate it, Microsoft would lose about 2 billion.

Software sales have always been a much bigger source of profit than hardware sales. That's why it's not uncommon for a company to release a gaming console at a loss, because they can rely on software sales to make up the difference, and bring in additional profits. For a company who is still taking a loss on hardware, piracy means big losses. For a company making money on hardware sales, piracy still means less profits, because game sales bring in a lot more than hardware sales.

playa_playa

07-16-2003, 10:56 PM

Um... I saw more piracy on Psx than any console in my life.. and that didn't exactly hurt the userbase did it? MS wants user right now, not money.

Userbase means jack and sh** if the said users do not purchase games for it.

Do you honestly think that those users pirating Xbox games are going to be the sort of the loyal, staple pool with which MS could risk its next venture (the same sort of venture with which MS is gambling right now with the Xbox; given the losses)?

The argument that MS is losing money on the Xbox to build userbase only holds water if the users will remain loyal for future consoles. Loyalty is not the paramount characteristic for userbase springing from piracy; they want whatever's easy to pirate for - the flavor of the month, a la Dreamcast.

And let's suppose that the piracy userbase do remain loyal and purchase the next console. What then? Do you think they will, out of their respect for the company, begin to actually purchase the games? I think we all know the answer to that question.

Really, I don't think you're understanding the magnitude with which piracy is being undertaken for the Xbox. The piracy with which you refer to - bootleg games from southease Asia - didn't even begin in large prevalence until the end period of PS. By then, PS already had its loyal users and whatever piracy hardware sales accrued were insignificant.

The means for Xbox pirating available via the usenet nowdays is simply astonishing. You do not have to worry about badly-ripped games (given that it is so simple to encode Xbox games into dvd images), nor do you have to PAY for the bootlegged games; it's all free, clean and most of all, convenient.

Case in point, my friend just shot me an IM saying that he d/led Soul Calibur 2 (the Japanese version). In no time, he was playing it through an aftermarket HDD he purchased specifically for pirating. He can erase it to make room for other games, or keep playing it at his will and leisure. No blank dvd's gone to waste, no bootlegged copies to pay for. What's all this cost you say? $60 mod chip and a $80, 100gig HDD.

This sort of pirating is idiosyncratic to the Xbox due to its computer-like setup; a feature which I foresaw would bring a dilemma of calamitous proportions.

TheGame

07-17-2003, 12:22 AM

Userbase means jack and sh** if the said users do not purchase games for it.

Umm... why can't they just do like Sony? Make it harder to pirate next time? A hardcore Halo fan who pirated it this gen, and can't pirate it next gen, will buy it next gen. Right? I know people who didn't buy jack in the Psx generation, many people, but once Ps2 came out and they could no longer pirate, did they just crawl in a hole and quit on Sony? Nope. If anything, all the pirating just turned into an ad for the games they could miss out on Ps2.

-EDIT-

Also, pirating on Xbox right now is far from popular... and much harder and more expensive to do... and if MS finds out who started it (hey, they did it before), it could be far more costlier than the whole pirating game on Psx.

playa_playa

07-17-2003, 01:28 AM

Umm... why can't they just do like Sony? Make it harder to pirate next time?

Exactly my point. It seems you have acquiesced that piracy is bad regardless of userbase considerations. Anti-piracy will have to be a facet to be discussed with MS in the next generation. My point in arguing this is that this bad move (which allowed easy pirating) worked against MS and forced them to be tighter w/ their options in their next considerations (since it will reduce their profit margin drastically; whether the primary goal was to build userbase or not). I don't think anyone can make a point in saying that MS expected to totally lose money this generation to make money next generation. If that were the case, why not give Xbox's away?

A hardcore Halo fan who pirated it this gen, and can't pirate it next gen, will buy it next gen. Right? I know people who didn't buy jack in the Psx generation, many people, but once Ps2 came out and they could no longer pirate, did they just crawl in a hole and quit on Sony? Nope. If anything, all the pirating just turned into an ad for the games they could miss out on Ps2.

Halo is just a game. To pirates, anything that is able to be bootlegged has a playtime value. In their mindset, anything that is free is worth trying out compared to something that may be good, but comes with a $50 price tag. Just as your anecdote about people who amateurly bootlegged ps games, I know of too many stories about people who do nothing but buy systems and pirate. This builds userbase how?

And how many exclusive aa titles does Xbox have to warrant this sort of loyalty? Okay, there's Halo, I guess....and like, some other stuff. Let's say that another system comes out w/ about the same number of AA titles or more, you think those people who pirated Xbox games are gonna stick around w/ Xbox2 b/c they saw some good titles w/ Xbox but see a hell of a lot more in PS3 or some other system?

I've said it many many times: DC pirating was one of the reasons it went downhill - one of the primary reasons. You think those people who bought a DC, pirated the hell out of it, are all migrating to Sega games now b/c they saw quality in Sega? Is that why Sega's doing so well now?

So I guess you're saying pirating isn't much of a problem if not a blessing in disguise given MS's situation. I guess somehow you could make that argument. But I'm not buying it. Profit is profit. Profit allows more amibitous ventures. Even if you're saying potential userbase built w/ pirates may allow eventual migration, I don't see how a cogent businesses would allow a marginalizing subsidiary to develop bigger by dumping more and more funds into it - even if it's clear that the subsidiary lost money and lost it big. Sure, you can make an argument about making an initial impact. But through the lifetime of Xbox (I dunno, say, 4-5 fiscal years?), if profits keep marginalizing due to piracy and hardware losses, MS could very well rethink their strategy in the console market.

Also, pirating on Xbox right now is far from popular... and much harder and more expensive to do... and if MS finds out who started it (hey, they did it before), it could be far more costlier than the whole pirating game on Psx.

Well, according to your argument, if it's far from popular, MS is losing out on potential userbase, right? heh, j/k.

And this is right after how I explained how easy and cheap it is to pirate? Back in the days of PS pirating, you had to either buy bootlegged games or buy a cd burner (which was costly back then) and the modchip - the modchip required soldering.

There are myriad of easy-to-install modchips for Xbox that requires no soldering. Most of them cost anywhere around the $60 mark. You can then either buy a dvd burner (which most hardcore modders don't recommend), or buy a large HDD to replace internal one in the Xbox. All of this is done w/o any soldering, is easy as replacing a computer part (since Xbox parts are essentially computer parts) and most of all, only requires $60 for the modchip and about $80 for a respectable HDD - which equals to buying about 3 Xbox games, if that.

Getting the games themselves? Hard? hahahahaha, thanks for a good laugh. If you know how to use newsgroups, which every movie, software and porn bootleggers in this country know how to use, you can d/l all of the games absolutely free of charge. Just use your newsreader and search around for Xbox dvd images.

Don't wanna go through the trouble of using newsgroups? Then get a generic dvd-ripping program, goto your local blockbuster, rent an Xbox game, then write it into a dvd image. Transfer it to the Xbox via a network cable (how much does this cost? $5?), voila, done. Btw, doesn't it sound like the computer-like setup of Xbox is responsible for this?

I suggest you browse some boards about Xbox modding, and then make a statement about its difficulty. I don't know where you're getting this hard and expensive and far from popular tirade from, but I think it's pretty far from the truth.

MS knows there's piracy going around with Xbox. Hell, they know that there's piracy going around w/ all of their software! But how can they regulate newgroups? You think b/c the music industry knows about ripping mp3's that they can do a lot to stop it? Give me a break.

Which bring me back to my original point: if MS wants to stop piracy, it has to be done through hardware. It's simply too late to fix Xbox to stop this. Therefore, it has to happen in the next generation.

TheGame

07-17-2003, 02:12 AM

Exactly my point. It seems you have acquiesced that piracy is bad regardless of userbase considerations. Anti-piracy will have to be a facet to be discussed with MS in the next generation. My point in arguing this is that this bad move (which allowed easy pirating) worked against MS and forced them to be tighter w/ their options in their next considerations (since it will reduce their profit margin drastically; whether the primary goal was to build userbase or not). I don't think anyone can make a point in saying that MS expected to totally lose money this generation to make money next generation. If that were the case, why not give Xbox's away?

LOL, that's a good point... and that's basically what they are doing :D

Not giving games away is for the sake of the developers... I mean, developers still gotta make money. If pirating was such a problem, more developers would be dropping Xbox than GCN... right? Well, I see way more games being slashed for GCN than any system.

And how many exclusive aa titles does Xbox have to warrant this sort of loyalty? Okay, there's Halo, I guess....and like, some other stuff. Let's say that another system comes out w/ about the same number of AA titles or more, you think those people who pirated Xbox games are gonna stick around w/ Xbox2 b/c they saw some good titles w/ Xbox but see a hell of a lot more in PS3 or some other system?

Quantity doesn't matter, it's all about the cult classics. I mean, people can run, but if you are hardcore enough you will stick around. Now, if Ps3 can be pirated... then hell yeah I can imagine them jumping ship easilly. But if they are pirating now and most of the games they like are going to be on Xbox or Xbox exclusive (assuming no system can be pirated at this time), then eh... they know what to buy.

I've said it many many times: DC pirating was one of the reasons it went downhill - one of the primary reasons. You think those people who bought a DC, pirated the hell out of it, are all migrating to Sega games now b/c they saw quality in Sega? Is that why Sega's doing so well now?

haha good therory... but Sega only dropped GCN (sports wise), the pirate free system... and they are supporting Xbox strongest of all.. plus Sega is extremely stupid with thier marketing.... seems that all three work together ;)

So I guess you're saying pirating isn't much of a problem if not a blessing in disguise given MS's situation. I guess somehow you could make that argument. But I'm not buying it. Profit is profit. Profit allows more amibitous ventures. Even if you're saying potential userbase built w/ pirates may allow eventual migration, I don't see how a cogent businesses would allow a marginalizing subsidiary to develop bigger by dumping more and more funds into it - even if it's clear that the subsidiary lost money and lost it big. Sure, you can make an argument about making an initial impact. But through the lifetime of Xbox (I dunno, say, 4-5 fiscal years?), if profits keep marginalizing due to piracy and hardware losses, MS could very well rethink their strategy in the console market.

Personally, I think pirating is a terrible thing... but at the same time the most pirated system off all time was the best selling, and is currently still running things with minimal to no piracy.

I never gonna sit here and try to say it's a good thing... but it may not be a factor that pushes anything out of the console race.it was a much worse problem for Psx, and they fought through it.

But at the same time, there is allways a success story for every mistake, and there is always a very bad crash and burn story for every mistake.

I mean, Hard development used to be the thing that kills... N64 still sold 50 Million, and so will Ps2... and the easy development DC, Xbox, and GCN will be lucky to hit 30 million.

Who's to say if nything is going to kill anything. Pirating (may have) killed DC (even though I think it's the lack of popular quality games), pirating barely hurt Sony.. that falls under somthing else I said:

"The reason I see Nintendo dying before Microsoft is because Nintendo is a independent game company, and like Sega, they can't exactly afford to have any huge mistakes. MS could live through some giant mistakes in the future, and the userbase would be thier incentive to keep going... "

Which bring me back to my original point: if MS wants to stop piracy, it has to be done through hardware. It's simply too late to fix Xbox to stop this. Therefore, it has to happen in the next generation.

also applies to my above quote, like Sony they can deal with these problems... if it happens to Sega or Nintendo well :unsure:

As for your ease of pirating stuff, you are assuming the person has a DVD player or recorder, or even a computer alltogether. I mean, getting new pirated games $10 a pop, computer free, DVD player free, and without worry Sony making some huge investigation where they will sue thier pants off... and pay a person for turning you in.

I dunno, it just seemed a lot more convienient... I guess not enough people around here sell/use pirated games for me to really compare. But I know some cut throat guys who would pirate anything they can get thier hands on.

gekko

07-17-2003, 11:37 AM

TheGame, ever wonder why everyone is going against you in this thread, and no one is agreeing with you? Think about it.

Stonecutter

07-17-2003, 02:02 PM

TheGame, ever wonder why everyone is going against you in this thread, and no one is agreeing with you? Think about it.
One xbox owner fights every battle Bond and I are tired.

Everyone who now owns an xbox and lovingly invests in it (ie people not like gekko who don't own the system for only one developer) is going to buy xbox 2 because we love the box. Give xbox 2 90% of xbox's user base and continue on the same hardware sales with slightly faster software sales next gen and xbox is fine.

On the cube side, there are several long time nintendo owners who are not satisfied with the cube. People such as myself.

Who owns the cube: Nintendo long timers, people like me. Either they've always follwed nintendo, or they've owned every system, chances are, if you own a cube, you've got some other piece of nintendo hardware in your home.

People who own the cube: Nintendo mainstays
Nintendo mainstays: Getting pissed off by nintendo

Xbox is the first microsoft console, and people are happy with it.

If nintendo is losing money on the gamecube, but making money overall on gba, why are they more likely to stay in the game than MS?

MS losing money on xbox, making money overall because they're MS.

MS doesn't need to worry about profits, they will just continue to wittle the competors away.

Nintendo = On the way out
Xbox = On the way up

gekko

07-17-2003, 02:26 PM

I gotta pull a old school Bond move here...

Everyone who now owns an xbox and lovingly invests in it (ie people not like gekko who don't own the system for only one developer) is going to buy xbox 2 because we love the box.Everyone? You can't speak for anyone but yourself.

On the cube side, there are several long time nintendo owners who are not satisfied with the cube.Which means nothing. There are several PS2 owners who are not satisfied. There are several Xbox owners who are not satisfied.

Who owns the cube: Nintendo long timers, people like me. Either they've always follwed nintendo, or they've owned every system, chances are, if you own a cube, you've got some other piece of nintendo hardware in your home.Chances are? Did you survey Gamecube owners to come up with that statistic? Again, you do not speak for the Nintendo userbase.

Xbox is the first microsoft console, and people are happy with it.People are happy with Gamecube and PS2 as well. What's your point?

If nintendo is losing money on the gamecube...Which they are not.

...but making money overall on gba...Which they are.

...why are they more likely to stay in the game than MS?It's common sense. A company making profit on a product is more likely to continue that product than a company who is losing large amounts of money on the product. Microsoft is the only company who would do better, not worse, by dropping their product. That makes them more likely.

MS losing money on xbox, making money overall because they're MS.Microsoft as a company is making money, but Microsoft is budgeting money to a lot more than Xbox. Windows is Microsoft's best product, Xbox is Microsoft's worst. You don't make cuts from other departments to keep your worst selling product on the market.

MS doesn't need to worry about profits, they will just continue to wittle the competors away.Every company has to worry about profits.

Nintendo = On the way out
Xbox = On the way upI'm sure you have nothing but your radical opinion to support these claims, so I won't ask.

PuPPeT

07-17-2003, 02:33 PM

LoL some people on here are starting to post some crap now! Sorry null but all we have to go on for the next generation is how well every one does this time around and sorry to say but Nintendo quite plane and simply is the loser (So far that is). Microsoft is in no way a winner mind you it has felled to sale as many units as they wanted but it has still out sold the longest running competitor which has got to tell you some thing!!!!! You just need to look at Sony’s PSX that did not make any money for it’s first 3 years yet by the end of it’s generation it was the only part of Sony to make a profit. I under stand that any thing can happen in the next generation of consoles!

Hell if Sony’s next console is as big a bitch to program as the PS2 it could very well fail as both the new Microsoft and Nintendo consoles will be launched around the same time (not giving them time to catch up on the games). People could drop the next Nintendo cuss it may not have a DVD player, hard drive and TV recorder like the rest. Or Microsoft my not sale F*** all cuss the console does not have the power to keep up with the other two.

But that is all speculation and all we have to go on is Microsoft is selling more consoles then Nintendo. Microsoft seems pretty happy with the Xbox’s performance so far which some thing Nintendo does not feel for the Gamecube.

Remember Nintendo has done nothing to boost its position this generation instead losing ground to yet another new comer! Maybe a company like Nintendo has place in the console hardware market any more (Sega did not). As every one keeps saying the industry is growing up it takes more money to make the money in this game now a days. Nintendo is seeing its market share full year on year now and what with Sony’s new hand held console just round the corner its biggest money maker could be under just a little heat.