Xbox Gets Slim, Natal Becomes Kinect

[BreakABone]

Yeah, I realize its only a day away but leaks happen, I don't time em.

But this is on some Italian website
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/5049/schermata20100614a00341.png

And if you go to
http://www.console-tribe.com/news/6-6-281598/mass-effect-3-dragon-age-ii-dead-or-alive-5-saranno-annunciati-all-e3.html

Right hand corner
You see an animated ad showing the image, and how it works with "Kinect" which is now the new rumored name for Natal.

~Edit~
Looks like we have confirmation and games
•Kinectimals lets you train and play with 20 different virtual cats, including a lion, cheetah and tiger.

•Joyride, a racing game, lets players use their hands to hold an imaginary steering wheel — pull your hands toward you and push back out for an acceleration boost — and their bodies to execute jumps and tricks.

•Kinect Sports has six activities including boxing, bowling, beach volleyball, track and field, soccer and table tennis. To serve a volleyball, you mimic the real motion; in soccer, you can kick the ball or do a header.

•Kinect Adventures includes a river-raft time trial and obstacle course, playable by up to four players. On the raft, playing as a duo, you and a partner must lean one way or another to steer. Jumping helps the raft reach special areas for extra points.

•Dance Central, in development by MTV Games, brings a So You Think You Can Dance experience home.

•Star Wars characters and iconic Disney favorites will be featured in separate new games being developed at Microsoft in conjunction with LucasArts and Disney.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/gaming/2010-06-14-vidgame14_ST_N.htm

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2010/06/kinetic-e3-product003-rm-eng.jpg
Sexy looking device

[gekko]

Actually, according to Xbox's site, the Cirque show for Natal was today, and will be broadcast on Tuesday. So it's not really leaks.

http://www.xbox.com/NR/rdonlyres/460DAD4C-4293-4621-910F-703E482557FA/0/ilme3Cirque01.jpg

If I was releasing an official photo, I would ensure the arms match up.

[BreakABone]

Actually, according to Xbox's site, the Cirque show for Natal was today, and will be broadcast on Tuesday. So it's not really leaks.

http://www.xbox.com/NR/rdonlyres/460DAD4C-4293-4621-910F-703E482557FA/0/ilme3Cirque01.jpg

If I was releasing an official photo, I would ensure the arms match up.

Yeah it was, but the information leaked 4 hours before the event started. :P

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[TheSlyMoogle]

That's ignorant blanket.

[manasecret]

I'll be honest and say that some of those games in the video look like they could be hits.

[Xantar]

Have I mentioned that it's a peripheral and therefore will fail?

[Typhoid]

Have I mentioned that it's a peripheral and therefore will fail?

What stocks should and shouldn't I invest in?
What will the big Christmas toy of '010 be?

[Zen]

I hope the people in those videos arent actually playing and are just doing this for show, because if they are there is a very notable delay between their actions and what happens on screen.

Also, the fast forward a movie with your movements sounds annoying "stop moving god dammit, im trying to watch this movie!"

[manasecret]

Have I mentioned that it's a peripheral and therefore will fail?

Yeah, still agree. I change my previous statement slightly -- I could see some of those games being hits... if the cost of entry wasn't $450+.

What stocks should and shouldn't I invest in?
What will the big Christmas toy of '010 be?

To take non-serious questions seriously...

I recommend investing in market funds geared towards low capital stocks and low capital value stocks. These are represented well by two Vanguard Funds -- Small-Cap Index (NAESX) and Small-Cap Value Index (VISVX). When the high inflation from the U.S. printing so much money kicks in, previous data shows those are likely to do even better than commodities like gold and copper, with even less risk (and considerably easier to buy and sell I reckon).

My guess is the Wii and DS will be the big Christmas toys yet again of 2010.

[Bond]

I recommend investing in market funds geared towards low capital stocks and low capital value stocks. These are represented well by two Vanguard Funds -- Small-Cap Index (NAESX) and Small-Cap Value Index (VISVX). When the high inflation from the U.S. printing so much money kicks in, previous data shows those are likely to do even better than commodities like gold and copper, with even less risk (and considerably easier to buy and sell I reckon).
This is actually good investment advice.

[Xantar]

What stocks should and shouldn't I invest in?
What will the big Christmas toy of '010 be?

And while we are asking rhetorical questions, name a $100 peripheral which has gotten more than 10% market share after bein launched four years into the console life cycle.

[Vampyr]

I'll probably get the Slim. My XBox has been having issues lately any way.

[KillerGremlin]

Yeah it was, but the information leaked 4 hours before the event started. :P

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This looks so lame. Look at me, I can run in place instead of actually running! This is fun...but how? And look, all I am doing with my fat ass is making it jiggle!

The coolest part of the video was the part where she fast forwarded with her hand.

What the Wii fails at is replicating real life activities. A Wii-mote is not a basketball or a bowling ball. And, bowling and basketball aren't all that fun anyway in first person unless you are actually doing the running and passing. They restrict you to a narrow view of a lane or a basket. The Wii-mote worked well for golf, and that is about it. What it lacks is that "real" feedback. I think this virtual shit is going -NOWHERE- until we get virtual basketballs, bowling balls or baseballs you can throw and interact with the screen with. The Wii-mote already failed (imo) to accommodate serious gaming with its seriously restricted number of buttons, but it also failed to accommodate shovelware by showing just how 1-dimensional motion controls applied to sports and games can be.

Here is where Natal is going to fail just based on that video alone: the raft game. What the fuck is that? How does jumping in real life equate to making your raft jump? More importantly, how is jumping NOT annoying and tiring. That game, for the few dumb people who buy it, might provide entertainment and joy for about 10 minutes before they realize that pushing "A" or "B" or even waggling the Wii-mote is easier.

Track and field. Need I say more. Seriously, if I wanted to run in place in front of my TV I could do that for free. If I wanted to run on a track I could actually get in shape.

Dancing. Oh this is fun. Oh wait it isn't. Unless Natal can do DDR without the dance pad this is going to be some epic fail shit. You know what Parappa The Rapper had going for it? It was Guitar Hero before Guitar Hero go popular. This is doooooomed.

Being able to fast forward with your hand: very cool.

Yayyy for technology.

As I said before, you cannot beat the Wii by taking its gimmicky premise and making it more gimmicky. Now having said that (and reflecting on my Wii predictions), maybe making something this gimmicky will just allure dumb people everywhere. I certainly hope not, not at this price tag. I think this is a peripheral headed to faildom.

[manasecret]

This is actually good investment advice.

Been reading up on that stuff? I believe I got my information from FundAdvice.com.

[Bond]

Been reading up on that stuff? I believe I got my information from FundAdvice.com.
I'm a business major and interning at a financial services company this summer, so somewhat I suppose?

[BreakABone]

I guess this can be the thread to discuss Kinect, and boy after e3 this thing has not come out smelling good at all.

The reveals (both of them) didn't seem to go over well with the press, but I'm sure that could work itself out in time.

The two big pieces of information that may hurt it,
a) Can't patch in support for older titles. Sure people probably wouldn't use it, but if Bungie or CoD wanted to throw in a Kinect mode just for people, won't happen.
Also as for the reason (it takes a hit of the 360's processor power), it also means there is a slim chance you will see major titles supporting both traditional controls and Kinect.

b)According to both IGN and Kotaku, it appears that Kinect can not recognize a person when they are sitting down. Even when doing the cool menu interface stuff you need to stand up. And yeah it was demo-ed in the video, but of course that was staged.
I'm hoping they work that problem out before this is released.

[gekko]

Who is saying the reason is lack of processing power? I think that's just plain wrong (still can't upgrade, but for a different reason).

[Vampyr]

Definitely not going to buy Kinect. Large price point, and it just doesn't look fun.

The only scenario I can imagine it being useful in is being able to turn your head in the cockpit of a car game. But if I have to stand up and do it? No thanks.

[Angrist]

b)According to both IGN and Kotaku, it appears that Kinect can not recognize a person when they are sitting down. Even when doing the cool menu interface stuff you need to stand up. And yeah it was demo-ed in the video, but of course that was staged.
I'm hoping they work that problem out before this is released.Really?? That's quite shocking. I (honestly) hope they work that out.

[gekko]

Where exactly at E3 are they getting a chance to test out sitting in a chair?

[BreakABone]

Where exactly at E3 are they getting a chance to test out sitting in a chair?

Not so much that they got a chance to try it out, as much as what they've heard on the show floor

Right now, Kinect only works when you stand. This includes menu navigation. All the cool options to grab a slider and advance through frames of a movie you are watching only work when you are on your feet. Kinect, we've been told, has problems handling your skeletal frame while sitting. The voice commands still work, but every game we've seen and even simple menu navigation have to be done with you out of your seat. That's not exactly how I want to watch my movies. If the focus for Kinect is creating games like Dance Central that naturally would require you to be off your couch, that's great. But I have to say, no one thinks "I am driving a car!" while standing up in their living room.

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/109/1099085p1.html


Edge reported devs' concerns on this exact problem - parsing out the player from furniture - a couple of issues ago. It seems entirely believable when you take a moment to think about the challenges involved vs dealing with people standing 'free'.

Again though, said article said that MS was working to fix this.


UPDATE: A Microsoft spokesperson told me after the publication of this article that the company is certain that Kinect gesture control will work for movies, ESPN and other "entertainment" features before the sensor is launched. As I originally reported, that is not an implemented feature yet. The spokesperson was not able to provide any update on the Kinect's tolerance of a person who sits while playing games.

http://kotaku.com/5565777/xbox-kinect-does-not-play-well-with-couch-potatoes

[BreakABone]

http://store.microsoft.com/microsoft/Kinect-Sensor-for-Xbox-360/product/C737B081

So even Microsoft's official site is listing the price as $150, I think this about wraps it up for the price.

[magus113]

http://store.microsoft.com/microsoft/Kinect-Sensor-for-Xbox-360/product/C737B081

So even Microsoft's official site is listing the price as $150, I think this about wraps it up for the price.

That is just WAY too much. Way way waaaaay too much. Good luck getting that off the ground MS. Seriously.

[TheSlyMoogle]

That is just WAY too much. Way way waaaaay too much. Good luck getting that off the ground MS. Seriously.

Yeah with nothing good in terms of gamez, this thing is LAAAAAAAAAAAAMEEEEE!

I hope it fails like virtual boi.

[Angrist]

The virtual boy wasn't an add-on!

[Typhoid]

Jesus you guys are so negative towards the idea of motion control.

[Xantar]

Jesus you guys are so negative towards the idea of motion control.

So do you think a peripheral launched in the fourth year of a console's life cycle priced at over $100 is going to sell anywhere near enough that developers are going to feel justified spending any resources on it?

Because if you do, let me see if I can interest you in this bridge I'm building in Phoenix, Arizona.

[Professor S]

So do you think a peripheral launched in the fourth year of a console's life cycle priced at over $100 is going to sell anywhere near enough that developers are going to feel justified spending any resources on it?

Because if you do, let me see if I can interest you in this bridge I'm building in Phoenix, Arizona.

I agree with Xantar. These are all quality ideas, especially Kinect, but they needed to be shelved until the next gen launch (however far away that might be). That would give time to perfect the product (Kinect needs it), get developers and publishers on board AND establish the brand and product value in the minds of the consumers. Without the peripheral being integral to the concept of the platform itself, I don't see how MS or Sony can pull this off with any real success. But then again, Nintendo proved me wrong with the Wii, so who knows. I have a blind spot when it comes to the public's thirst motion controls and family oriented gaming.

Right now it seems Sony and MS are caught up in a race to see who can release the first irrelevant loss leader.

[BreakABone]

Jesus you guys are so negative towards the idea of motion control.
I don't think them being negative about the price and them wanting it to fail is the same as being negative about motion controls. (Except for maybe Moogle and Dylflon, who pretty much want motion controls to die in a fire)

I'm not negative towards motion controls, and while I want neither device to fail, we both know how its gonna work out.

I agree with Xantar. These are all quality ideas, especially Kinect, but they needed to be shelved until the next gen launch (however far away that might be). That would give time to perfect the product (Kinect needs it), get developers and publishers on board AND establish the brand and product value in the minds of the consumers. Without the peripheral being integral to the concept of the platform itself, I don't see how MS or Sony can pull this off with any real success. But then again, Nintendo proved me wrong with the Wii, so who knows. I have a blind spot when it comes to the public's thirst motion controls and family oriented gaming.

Right now it seems Sony and MS are caught up in a race to see who can release the first irrelevant loss leader.
I think this was kind of needed, I hope and suspect that for both MS and Sony this was a trial run for their tech to kind of get their feet wet. It also takes away Nintendo's mindshare going into the next generation.

And I hope that it cures developers growing pains with motion controls when we head into next-gen

[Typhoid]

These are all quality ideas, especially Kinect, but they needed to be shelved until the next gen launch (however far away that might be).

I do agree on the fact they need time to perfect it, but from a business standpoint it makes 100% sense. Entirely. In no way does it not make any sense for either company to do this.

The Wii is popular with children, and adults. This is a known fact. The 360 and PS3 aren't really aimed towards children or adults directly, not to mention neither system has any type of motion control as it is.

Before you dive straight into anything [Unless you're Nintendo], you typically want to see how a new type of anything will sell, especially if it pushes boundaries on a market that has relied on controllers for 20+ years. If they were to make the Kinect the next gen console, and hold off for 3 years to release it to a giant gasping yawn of a market because nobody wants full-body motion gaming, they'd fail utterly. This way they get to test the waters. Not only will it show them how many people that own 360's will buy Kinect, but how many 360 units a Kinect will sell just by existing.

If these numbers are deeply underwhelming, I can see Sony and Microsoft making motion control take a back seat to controller gaming. While if they take off like wildfire, they will most likely make 'body gaming' the main focus of the next system over 'controller gaming'.

[Xantar]

If these numbers are deeply underwhelming, I can see Sony and Microsoft making motion control take a back seat to controller gaming.

And that there is the problem. The numbers will be deeply underwhelming, but not because of how well Kinect works or doesn't work or how much people are intrigued by it. As three separate people have been trying to point out to you now, the price is too high, the timing is too late, and the support is too little. When Kinect fails, how is Microsoft supposed to know whether that means they should include it in the Xbox 4Pi or not? There is no such thing in business as finding some kind of "absolute bottom" number and then extrapolating from that to figure out how well something would sell if you actually developed it properly. The math does not allow you to separate out the factors like that. There is no math formula that says, "If Kinect sells 100,000 units, that means it will sell 5 million if you built a console from the ground up to include it." Any economist will tell you that.

This makes zero percent chance from a business standpoint. Developing a product and releasing it with the expectation that it will fail is a horrible way to do business. Just try selling that pitch to some venture capital investors in Silicon Valley. The only thing Microsoft is getting out of this is PR, and now it's starting to sound like they'll fail at even that because the Kinect won't live up to the hype and will utterly fail to sell.

But hey, if you think it's such a good tactic, go buy some Microsoft stock. I'll be happy to short sell against you.

[Typhoid]

As three separate people have been trying to point out to you now, the price is too high, the timing is too late, and the support is too little.

This isn't Minority Report. Three people and their opinions don't dictate anything. You're not pre-cogs, you're all the exact same thing I am. A dude posting on the internet. Nothing makes your assumptions more valid than mine. I'll use my pre-cog abilities - however - to see into the future to the point where you make a long post arguing that your opinion is better than mine.

The thing about the cost is it's perspective. If 3 of you don't want to buy Move/Kinect, neat. Then don't. Maybe you can't afford it. I assume not - if price is an issue for you. I however, plan on buying Move. But of course that doesn't matter, because 1 is the loneliest number, right.

I also don't see the timing as 'too late'. Next Gen isn't for a while, still. It would be 'Too late' if they already announced the next gen consoles and peripherals, and loads of games lined up. But they haven't. I don't call 1-2 years "too late" in a consoles life for anything to do with that console to be released. Again, if you think a year or two is a short, unmeasurable amount of time to do with the lifespan of a console, neat.

And of course there isn't any support yet. It's not even released. With that theory I can assume the 3DS will crash and burn terribly because there isn't a bucketload of games out for it. Next gen will be terrible because no games have been announced. And don't even think of saying 'Next gen' is too far away - because that timeframe is your argument against the Move/Kinect.


There is no such thing in business as finding some kind of "absolute bottom" number and then extrapolating from that to figure out how well something would sell if you actually developed it properly.

No, but there is something called 'Public Interest'.
3D TV's didn't come out before 3D movies proved people want [good] 3D technology. A 3D handheld didn't come out before that, either. If 3D TV's were on the public market before [good] 3D movies, that would be a different story.


The math does not allow you to separate out the factors like that. There is no math formula that says, "If Kinect sells 100,000 units, that means it will sell 5 million if you built a console from the ground up to include it." Any economist will tell you that.

What's your point? That's not even what I was talking about.


This makes zero percent chance from a business standpoint. Developing a product and releasing it with the expectation that it will fail is a horrible way to do business.

There are two problems with this.
Problem A: Testing a market makes 0 sense? Really? Really?
Problem B: You are expecting it to fail. Not them.


But hey, if you think it's such a good tactic, go buy some Microsoft stock. I'll be happy to short sell against you.

I'll do you one better. I'll buy a Move.

[Xantar]

This isn't Minority Report. Three people and their opinions don't dictate anything. You're not pre-cogs, you're all the exact same thing I am. A dude posting on the internet. Nothing makes your assumptions more valid than mine.

Wow. I've got to hand it to you. When you decide to be ignorant and delusional, you really commit to the role.

Look, just because you say it's just a difference of opinion doesn't make it so. This isn't fortune telling. This is using what's happened in the past and applying it to the present in order to figure out what's going to happen in the future. You're familiar with the concept of learning from the past, aren't you? I keep asking you this question: name one peripheral over $100 which has sold well on a four year old console. And you never answer. I wonder why that is. I'm not trying to browbeat you with superiority of numbers. I'm expressing incredulity that so many people can explain this very simple idea to you and you apparently still can't get it.

I'm not sure what makes you so certain that this time is special and won't follow the exact same path as every other peripheral in console history, but I'm not the one making baseless assumptions here.

And before you start whining about how I'm insulting you and making disparaging remarks about my penis size, why don't you go find me an example of a peripheral which has succeeded?

I'll use my pre-cog abilities - however - to see into the future to the point where you make a long post arguing that your opinion is better than mine.

Just wanted to point out that the reason my posts are so long is I'm explaining absurdly simple concepts to you very slowly so that you can understand them.


I also don't see the timing as 'too late'. Next Gen isn't for a while, still. It would be 'Too late' if they already announced the next gen consoles and peripherals, and loads of games lined up. But they haven't. I don't call 1-2 years "too late" in a consoles life for anything to do with that console to be released. Again, if you think a year or two is a short, unmeasurable amount of time to do with the lifespan of a console, neat.

The point isn't that there's not enough time left in the console cycle. The point is too much time has already passed. Tens of millions of people are out there who have purchased consoles without Move or Kinect, and the vast majority of them are not going to buy it now. That means the incentive for developers is heavily on the side of not supporting Move or Kinect. And when developers don't support a peripheral, people don't buy it. And when people don't buy a peripheral, developers don't support it. It's what's happened in the past. It's what will happen this time.

No, but there is something called 'Public Interest'.
3D TV's didn't come out before 3D movies proved people want [good] 3D technology. A 3D handheld didn't come out before that, either. If 3D TV's were on the public market before [good] 3D movies, that would be a different story.

Here's where your analogy breaks down: 3D movies were released in order to make money. They weren't pushed out as a test case or to gauge public interest. The point of releasing movies in 3D was for the movies to make a profit. And they did.

The theory you've been pushing is that Microsoft and Sony are releasing motion control devices just to see how much interest they get. And that's utterly wrong. Microsoft and Sony should be releasing motion control devices in order to make money. The problem is they won't (see above).

There are two problems with this.
Problem A: Testing a market makes 0 sense? Really? Really?
Problem B: You are expecting it to fail. Not them.

Problem A: It is when you're releasing something that's going to fail and is going to cost you a lot of money (you can give me a counter-example of a peripheral which has sold this late in the console cycle any time you want).
Problem B: Then they're idiots. Again, look at history.

I'll do you one better. I'll buy a Move.

That wasn't the point, but I'm loading your head with too many thoughts now so I'll stop for the time being. Come back with a $100 peripheral which has sold well, why don't you?

[Typhoid]

name one peripheral over $100 which has sold well on a four year old console.

Name me 1 peripheral over 100 dollars released on a 4 year old system.

I'm not sure what makes you so certain that this time is special and won't follow the exact same path as every other peripheral in console history, but I'm not the one making baseless assumptions here.

When did I say it will succeed 100% with flying colours, sell millions, and change the industry? All I've said is that you need to keep an open mind that it might not fail terribly - and that from a business and marketing standpoint what they're doing makes perfect, practical sense.

why don't you go find me an example of a peripheral which has succeeded?

Sega CD
Famicom
Super Game Boy
Super Game Boy 2
The N64 Expansion Pack
And if you want to get technical, Playstation.

I'll also point out that the N64 was released in 96, and the expansion pack in late 99. The Gamecube was released in 2001, making the expansion pak (which was NEEDED to play some games) released with a year and a half left on the systems life.

It's what's happened in the past. It's what will happen this time.

Things change. You have a black president. When has that happened before? Show me one black president before Obama.

This may blow your mind, but some things do happen when no previous thing has happened that is the same. Am I saying these will take off amazingly? Again - no. I am not. I am simply saying it makes sense, and that it may not crash and burn.

(you can give me a counter-example of a peripheral which has sold this late in the console cycle any time you want).

N64 Expansion Pack.
You're welcome.

Tens of millions of people are out there who have purchased consoles without Move or Kinect, and the vast majority of them are not going to buy it now.

Yes, but some might. That is the business outlook of it.
They aren't releasing anything for 2+ years. Nothing but games.
In order to bring in more money, without releasing a new system, what do you do? Revamp the current one, so that more games can be made in a shorter amount of time. Not every single person has to buy a Kinect or a Move for it to be a success. Maybe to you, it does. But not to a company. If they pull a profit at all, it's a business success.

Now 100-140 dollars isn't a lot of money - especially when it comes to video games and video game related things. That's the same price as 2 games. And if your child has a PS3/360, and his/her little birthday is coming up - and if they want something with motion control - you can either spend 200+ on a Wii, or 150 on a Kinect/Move. Will everyone buy a Kinect or Move? Fuck no. At no point have I ever said that.

[Xantar]

Name me 1 peripheral over 100 dollars released on a 4 year old system.

Well yeah. Now that I think about it, there haven't been very many peripherals costing over $100 released that late into a console's life cycle, have there? It seems like a really stupid idea for some reason. If I cut that down to 3 years, then you'd have the Sega CD which I'll get to in a moment.

When did I say it will succeed 100% with flying colours, sell millions, and change the industry? All I've said is that you need to keep an open mind that it might not fail terribly - and that from a business and marketing standpoint what they're doing makes perfect, practical sense.

Think about the amount of money in research, development, and marketing that went into creating the Move and Kinect. And then consider that they are probably being sold at a loss. But even if we assume they are being sold at a profit, think about how many units are going to have to be sold to make up all that money. I know you don't have actual numbers, but just come up with some ball park figures for a second.

Now, do you think Microsoft and Sony would be happy with about 10% of current console owners being motion controls? Because historically, that is the absolute ceiling. No console peripheral (including the ones you've named which I'll get to in a bit) has done better than that. Somehow I got the impression that Microsoft and Sony are hoping for better than that.

And the thing is, when something has sold so little, people are going to stop paying attention to it within a year. So that's not good from a business OR a marketing standpoint.

Sega CD

You think that was a success? :rofl:

Famicom

Hang on. The Famicom was a peripheral? You'll have to tell me which machine you're talking about because the only Famicom I know is a full-fledged console.

Super Game Boy

You think that sold well? :rofl:

Super Game Boy 2

You think that sold well? :rofl:

The N64 Expansion Pack

You think that sold well? Have you taken a look at sales numbers for N64 games that required the Expansion Pak?

And if you want to get technical, Playstation.

Umm...no.

And anyway, I thought I didn't have to keep repeating the "$100" part of my question over and over again because it was implied. You don't really think the Expansion Pak is in any way a reasonable comparison to Kinect and Move, do you? Just look at the marketing for Kinect and Move. Did you ever see that amount of hype for the Expansion Pak? Really? And it's also worth noting that with the exception of the Expansion Pak, all of the peripherals you've listed are ones which disappeared from store shelves within a year of being launched. You call that a success?

Things change. You have a black president. When has that happened before? Show me one black president before Obama.

This may blow your mind, but some things do happen when no previous thing has happened that is the same. Am I saying these will take off amazingly? Again - no. I am not. I am simply saying it makes sense, and that it may not crash and burn.

Seriously? Your argument in favor of Move is "I think these other peripherals sold well (even though when you look at the raw numbers they didn't) and anything could happen because the United States has a black president"? Do I even have to tell you how ludicrous this looks?

In point of fact, it's much easier to get Barack Obama elected president than it is to get Move or Kinect to sell well. Not to take anything away from him, because it certainly wasn't easy, but demographic and historical trends say that it was inevitable that we would have a black US president some day. There is nothing which says some day we must inevitably have a peripheral which launches four years into a console's life cycle and costing almost 50% of the console's retail price and ends up succeeding by any reasonably measure.

I'm not even going to try to list all the other ways your comparison doesn't hold up. It's making me laugh too hard.

Yes, but some might. That is the business outlook of it.
They aren't releasing anything for 2+ years. Nothing but games.

I'm trying to understand what exactly is so bad about that. The Playstation 2 did just fine for 6 years releasing "nothing but games."

In order to bring in more money, without releasing a new system, what do you do? Revamp the current one, so that more games can be made in a shorter amount of time. Not every single person has to buy a Kinect or a Move for it to be a success. Maybe to you, it does. But not to a company. If they pull a profit at all, it's a business success.

Setting aside the fact that I don't think it either Kinect or Move will make a profit, your standard for success is so low that it's ludicrous to think Microsoft or Sony think the same way you do. So let's say Kinect costs Microsoft $100 million and they end up making $110 million off of it. That's what you would consider a success? Because I guarantee you Microsoft isn't going to be happy with that. They'll be the first to tell you they want more than just a 10% profit margin. They want to steal Nintendo's thunder. They've admitted it right up front.

And by that standard, they will fail because by this time in 2012, we'll have completely forgotten about Kinect (and Move).

Now 100-140 dollars isn't a lot of money - especially when it comes to video games and video game related things.

First of all, :lol: at the assertion that $140 isn't a lot of money.

Secondly, that actually is a lot of money to spend on something when the support for that device is going to disappear about a year after you buy it. Which is what happened to almost every peripheral in the past (and you could even say the same thing happened to the Expansion Pak because compared to the Playstation, how many people were really paying attention to it?).

Even you have to acknowledge there's a risk that the Move will fail to gain any traction and that consequently developers will refuse to make any games to support it, leaving you with an expensive webcam and light bulb.

That's the same price as 2 games. And if your child has a PS3/360, and his/her little birthday is coming up - and if they want something with motion control - you can either spend 200+ on a Wii, or 150 on a Kinect/Move. Will everyone buy a Kinect or Move? Fuck no. At no point have I ever said that.

Ah yes, the mythical child who somehow convinced his parents to buy a PS3 or Xbox 360 for him and now wants motion control for some reason. Do you have any hard data on how many of those are around?

You want to know why I'm still not open to the idea that the Kinect or the Move might sell in any amounts that anybody would consider successful? Because not only has it never happened, I've never seen anything to support the idea that it might. And the only thing you've given me so far is a list of peripherals which didn't actually do that well (go ahead, look them up), a hypothetical kid, and "Barack Obama is president, so anything can happen."

Really, I don't know why I just spent this much time rebutting this argument. I must be bored.

[BreakABone]

You two seem so nice and cozy together.

I will say this though.
If you want to see the success/failure of Kinect/Ps Move I would look at this generation itself.

Where we had two highly successful peripherals in terms of sales, and they get no support whatsoever.

The balance board is close to 30 million sold and the Wii Motion Plus is over 20 million sold, and now included in every Wii.

To put it into perspective, the balance board is 75% of the Xbox 360's userbase and about 95% of the PS3 userbase, and outside of Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus, you can probably count on one hand the games that use it in a meaningful way (I believe officially there are close to 50 or so but most of them are eh)

Now if something with that sizable userbase can't get proper support after 2 1/2 years on the market, why would an unknown device that caters to a completely different audience than the ones who own the console sell?

Kinect and Move exist for two reasons
1) To prolong this generation until tech becomes cheaper and so MS/Sony can turn a better profit.
2) Destroy some of the mind/market share Nintendo has developed this gen.

[gekko]

Ya, hate to admit it, but the Wii is the counter example to every gamer who thinks they can predict the industry. If I told you Nintendo was re-releasing the GameCube with a different controller, you would've never believed it would sell.

[BreakABone]

Ya, hate to admit it, but the Wii is the counter example to every gamer who thinks they can predict the industry. If I told you Nintendo was re-releasing the GameCube with a different controller, you would've never believed it would sell.

Well that's not true, I thought the Wii always had potential for great success, not exactly this high level of success. I even semi- got 3rd party support right.


As for 3rd party support, it is a double-edge sword. It probably would mean a lack of 3rd party release (well except for the fact that you could get a normal controller shell, I would assume comes standard as well), but it also means that most 3rd party releases on the system will be a unique experience from the other 2 consoles. It just depends on how the developer implents it.

From like 5 years ago, but stroking my own ego aside.

The difference between the Wii and Kinect/Move really is that the Wii broke the norm as you said of what is expected. It took faith in interface over graphics.

Kinect and Move are now following in the steps of the Wii, and really aren't doing it well.

One is trying too hard to focus on the "casual" audience that the Wii picked up by having a launch entirely of fitness, sports and dance games.

The other device doesn't know what it wants to be, and in the end, it will be nothing but an afterthought because not even Sony knows what they want from it.

Not that Nintendo is always better with their decisions, they built a system on motion, but play it safe with things like Mario Kart and Smash Brothers. Or don't push it to its full potential in other games.

Then you have things like Wii Sports/Play/Fit/Music that seem to care about nothing else but the tech of the controller.

Anyhow, rambling and tired, sure won't make sense in the morning.

[Angrist]

They should just skip this whole motion control thing and go with thought-controlled gaming. Plug into your brain and never get off the couch again!