March Sales Prediction

[BreakABone]

I know most people here aren't really sales analysis and don't care much for NPDs, but I thought this would be a thing to try.

Right now March has 3 major releases which has potential to be the number one seller.

On the PS3 front, there is God of War 3. The PS3 has had a rough time with selling exclusives, with I believe the best selling one coming in at around 600k during its first month.

The DS has a remake of Pokemon Gold/Silver in HeartGold and SoulSilver, Pokemon has ALWAYS been a huge seller, but at some point the brand runs thin, and it always divides the fanbase in half with two separate version. And unlike the last one, there is no version whih should be ignored because of how you perceive it (sorry PokeMon Pearl)

And of course, after years of waiting, Final Fantasy XIII makes its longer awaited debut. Now this is the first major FF for the HD consoles, and really the first big RPG of this generation. It is on the 360 for the first time, will this help catapult it to number one?

So I guess, which do you predict will be number 1 for the month? FF 13 sells more on 360 or Ps3?

And article.
http://bit.ly/97w9bM

[Zen]

I believe FF 13 will be the top seller, however that is PS3 and 360 combined, God of War will be the biggest seller on a single console, I think FF will sell more on 360 than on PS3...aaand I dont care about pokemon.

[TheGame]

FFXIII sales is so hard to predict... I'll point out why I think it's hard to predict:

Why it might dissapoint in sales:
1) It's no longer an exclusive title. Probably one of the most popular series in history to drop it's exclusiveness, but also when you look at history.. games that lose exclusivity usually see a drop in sales per console. (overall it could go up though, however)
2) Related to the first reason.. It looks like from all reviews I've seen that the system with the bigger base is getting the worse version of the game. This may have a negative effect on sales.
3) And related to the second reason.. The game is only getting mediocre scores. This generation has been extremely harsh to mediocre games on 360 and Ps3.

Why it might sell well:
1) This is a popular game franchise, and their first release games for the Psx and Ps2 sold a lot, and they seem to be following in those game's footsteps with the cutting edge visuals and the great advertizing campaign. This could weigh in over it's faults.
2) It's the first major JRPG release of this generation, and there's a lot of people who were waiting for this for a while.
3) Xbox fans may suprise us, and dispite the game's faults.. The excitement of getting the series from Sony alone may drive in some extra sales.

I'm leaning towards the idea that sales for this game may be lower then expected, but it's really hard to tell. God of War III will not be able to compete in sales though. They're not advertizing for that game enough, and God of War I and II combined sold less then Final Fantasy XII (And final fantasy XII sold less then FFX). Final Fantasy's hype will be enough to stomp out GoW3 in the first month easy.

[BreakABone]

Yeah, I pointed out in another thread that as odd as it may seem, exclusivity seems to help sell a game, but its dependent on the game. GTA IV sold well, just not as well as SA. I think DMC 4 sold less than the others, but think deals more with the quality of the franchise.

I guess its easier to say now, but these mixed reviews won't help the game out much either.

I think the game will sell well, just within reason.

As for God of War 3, I expect it to do well, but the game doesn't have a large appeal. Sure, it caters to the group that it needs to cater to, but will be hard pressed to find a new audience especially since Dante's Inferno just came out.

I'm gonna say surprise win will probably be an older game.