Tavern Talk: Sales

[BreakABone]

I guess, this may or may not be a new trend for me.
But figured since got to get activity going and first thread is turning out so well. (Can't believe almost 50 posts and still civil. :D ) Would try a follow-up.

This one doesn't focus on any particular consoles, but a simple question.

We are currently 4 months into 2008, we have sale data for 2 of those months. The 3rd is expected next week. Thus far, we have seen the PS3 outsell the 360 for the first two months.

The question is can the Ps3 continue its momentum and continue to outsell the 360 for the rest of the year. Or is this just a minor bump in the road for the 360?

[Typhoid]

I think the PS3 can carry on.
Especially with the price drop, and the various versions to knock off additional costs (ie 2 port or 4 port/backwards compatable/not) and with MGS, and FF coming out soon, I think a lot of people will buy one for sure. I know a lot of people who have bought them, or are buying them solely for those two games.

Plus the 360 quality of games have been going down a little lately, and it's further along in it's lifespan.

[thatmariolover]

Blu-Ray is now the clear and certain victor in the HD format war and I think that sales of the PS3 are going to reflect that for several months to come (at least through July, maybe even through September). Not to mention the killer apps for PS3 coming out this year. Gran Turismo 5, Little Big Planet, MGS4, FFXIII, Killzone 2, Resistance 2, God of War III, etc.

I think this is gonna be a great year for PS3. They've had a rough two years but I think this may be a serious opportunity to take back some lost ground.

[Aladuf]

I definetly think the PS3 can keep up its sales. Right now it seems like the PS3 is picking up steam for the time being and the 360 doesn't have much going on right now.

I believe with MGS4, Resistance 2, Little Big Planet, and Killzone 2 coming out as PS3 exclusives this year it has a far more solid line up than the 360 has. Those 4 games are gonna do great for Sony.

The 360's biggest games this year are Gears of War 2, Fable 2, and uhh... I know I'm missing something but I don't wanna look. Gears 2 will KILL this holiday season though, not that R2 won't do good but we're talking about Gears here MS will be whoring that game out everywhere.

Both consoles have GTA4 which will definetly get more sales on the 360 side but the PS3 will get more consoles pushed out with it.

Definetly an interesting year, I can't wait to see how it all ends up at the end of it.

[Perfect Stu]

I think PS3 will definitely beat the 360 in sales in all territories in 2008. It probably won't outsell it every month, but by the end of the year I think it'll be a pretty noticeable difference. Metal Gear Solid is one massive exclusive, and I think that's going to just give Sony's momentum an extra nudge. Japanese sales are terrible but I can see them picking up once FF13 hits next year.

[BreakABone]

I think PS3 will definitely beat the 360 in sales in all territories in 2008. It probably won't outsell it every month, but by the end of the year I think it'll be a pretty noticeable difference. Metal Gear Solid is one massive exclusive, and I think that's going to just give Sony's momentum an extra nudge. Japanese sales are terrible but I can see them picking up once FF13 hits next year.

Do you see FF 13 out this year or are you just referring to Japan?

I think the 360 has seen its best days. I really do think the release of Halo 3 was the peak of the console. I don't expect it to die off but I don't expect it to start hitting numbers out of the field.

The Ps3 I think will have weird year with a lot of ups and downs. I can see March, April and May being slow due to news of the MGS 4 bundle, but picking up steadily through like August. Then another down period until the holiday season.

I do however think GTA 4 will help push more 360 consoles. It's a weird prediction but eh.

[Perfect Stu]

Do you see FF 13 out this year or are you just referring to Japan?

Like I said, I think it will release in Japan next year, North America I'm not sure...possibly October-December 09.

[Dyne]

Blu-Ray is now the clear and certain victor in the HD format war and I think that sales of the PS3 are going to reflect that for several months to come (at least through July, maybe even through September).

I wanted to touch on this point. It's hard to say whether the Blu-ray crowd is the vast amount of people that were sitting on the fence and are now just jumping on the train (sorry for the cliches) but either way HDTV adoption rates will rise and the PS3 will continue to be the cheapest, if not the best Blu-ray player available to consumers. Personally, I can only see sales increasing now.

[Professor S]

Once the PS3 gets one post price drop hot app under its belt, it will continue to outsell the 360 going forward, but I'm sot sure it has enough time left in this genration to make up the difference and surpass the 360 in total sales. In fact, I highly doubt it will.

Sony made a huge mistake with their price point, and it cost them this generation. They'll know better next generation.

[thatmariolover]

Once the PS3 gets one post price drop hot app under its belt, it will continue to outsell the 360 going forward, but I'm sot sure it has enough time left in this genration to make up the difference and surpass the 360 in total sales. In fact, I highly doubt it will.

Sony made a huge mistake with their price point, and it cost them this generation. They'll know better next generation.

And yet they're still losing money on every console. If you want hardware powerful enough to push gaming to the next level, you have to be willing to pay for it.

And I'm not trying to imply that you're not willing to. I'm just saying, you've made it clear that graphics are an important element in making a game more enjoyable. Where would you say the balance needs to be struck?

[Professor S]

And yet they're still losing money on every console. If you want hardware powerful enough to push gaming to the next level, you have to be willing to pay for it.

And I'm not trying to imply that you're not willing to. I'm just saying, you've made it clear that graphics are an important element in making a game more enjoyable. Where would you say the balance needs to be struck?

My preferences are my preferences. I planned on getting a PS3 eventually regardless of price point. Nut my comments aren't referring to what I like, they're about what sells. Many people just aren't willing to shell out so much money for a gaming system.

I think that Sony should have "Wal-Marted" their component manufacturers to reduce the cost. With the position Sony was in after last generation, they easily could have strong armed their vendors to produce product at a lower cost per unit on the promise of volume sales alone. I still think Blu-Ray was a mistake as well, even now that its won the future, its pretty doomed the present for PS3. There's just too much ground to make up.

There is no reason why Sony or MS should be still losing money on each console at this point in the game. The manufactieres have had plenty of time to reduce costs and streamline.

I think in the future console developers need to facilitate a synergy between advancement and efficiency/cost of production.

[Angrist]

If the PS3 could have been made cheaper to produce, why is it still the cheapest Blu-Ray player? That doesn't make sense to me. A standalone Blu-Ray has less components than a PS3, and they're still more expensive?

Conclusion: the PS3 still is very expensive to produce.

Oh and on sales: the PS3 seems to be catching up. It will probably sell more than the 360 will this year. But the 360 will still have the largest user base and just as important: a larger game attach ratio.

[Aladuf]

And yet they're still losing money on every console.

Sony's not losing money on consoles anymore. It was said about a month ago that it only costs $400 to make a PS3 these days. Which in the case of the 40 GB sku, is breaking even.

[Perfect Stu]

And yet they're still losing money on every console.

You seem fairly sure...I've heard otherwise months ago.

[Perfect Stu]

but I'm sot sure it has enough time left in this genration to make up the difference and surpass the 360 in total sales. In fact, I highly doubt it will.

My prediction:

by the time 360 stops being produced: 360 has higher sales
by the time PS3 stops being produced: PS3 has higher sales