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View Full Version : Challenge#8: Joyful Jellybeans

Neo
07-12-2006, 10:56 PM
Guess the total number of jellybeans within the container. I was going to use a jar but the odd shape of this bowl makes it more challenging. This is not a trick challenge; There are no objects buried in the beans taking up space. Remember that the accuracy of your guess will play a role in the challenge after this one. Please send your guess to me via private message within 48 hours. To the winner goes immunity as well another clue to the location of the Golden Key. Good luck survivors.

Edit: Sorry for the low-res. My phone sucks

http://www.gametavern.net/Neo/J1.jpg

http://www.gametavern.net/Neo/J2.jpg
Big Red can gives you some perspective.
http://www.gametavern.net/Neo/J3.jpg
Ooh look, an Xbox.
http://www.gametavern.net/Neo/J4.jpg

Btw, I am the self-proclaimed God of jellybean guessing. I once entered a guess in a jellybean contest and came within 4 beans of the correct answer. Here's a hint - people almost always underestimate the number of beans. Take that as you will.
manasecret
07-12-2006, 11:15 PM
Are those jelly belly? Mmmm.. jelly belly. I found this store in Houston that has a whole wall of the different flavors, and FINALLY I had found a store that had the jalapeņo flavor. I'd been looking for it for some probably eight years.

And how did it taste? Well.... it tastes a lot like jalapeņo and sets fire to your tongue, I'll give it that. I guess I should be happy about that.... but man -- it tastes awful.
ZebraRampage
07-12-2006, 11:39 PM
It doesn't matter if we go over right? It's just who's closest to the actual number.
KillerGremlin
07-13-2006, 12:45 AM
Btw, I am the self-proclaimed God of jellybean guessing. I once entered a guess in a jellybean contest and came within 4 beans of the correct answer. Here's a hint - people almost always underestimate the number of beans. Take that as you will.

You're a gosh darn physics major, you better be able to whip up some geometry and math stuff in your head!!
Neo
07-13-2006, 08:57 AM
It doesn't matter if we go over right? It's just who's closest to the actual number.

Yes that's right.

And if anyone changes their mind before the challenge ends you can send me an updated guess.
Happydude
07-14-2006, 08:18 AM
did you actually count them?
Neo
07-14-2006, 08:52 AM
did you actually count them?

Yep


Anyone who has not submitted a guess please do so now.

Thank you.
Fox 6
07-14-2006, 10:36 AM
have you eaten them yet?
Neo
07-14-2006, 09:12 PM
manasecret and Vampyr are the only guesses missing.
ZebraRampage
07-14-2006, 10:08 PM
So I take it that you'll be posting the winner at 9:56 PM CST tonight.
manasecret
07-14-2006, 11:01 PM
Sorry to be late, I sent my guess.
Neo
07-14-2006, 11:43 PM
All guesses have been submitted. All but two of you underestimated the number of beans in the container. Curiously those two guessed on the opposite extreme of the spectrum. Guesses ranged from 219 all the way to 1802.

The survivor with the closest guess and winner of the 1st individual immunity is..........


































































Happydude! His guess of 777 was only 76 beans off from the correct answer of 853. Happydude wins immunity and cannot be voted out of the tribe. Please enter the new Cake Tribe forum for the first Cake Council.

In addition, Happydude wins another clue to the location of the GameTavern Golden Key. Please select a clue #1-25 Happydude.
ZebraRampage
07-14-2006, 11:45 PM
Damn..my calculations were off, though it was pretty tough seeing though the pile of jelly beans wasn't flat. Nice job Happydude.
manasecret
07-15-2006, 12:21 AM
Well done, Happydude.

I wonder how you guys calculated your guesses. I started by taking that top-down photo and counting the beans one at a time in Photoshop, marking each bean with a dot after I counted it. I counted 298.

That was the easy part. The hard part was trying to figure out how many layers of 298 there were.
ZebraRampage
07-15-2006, 12:26 AM
Well done, Happydude.

I wonder how you guys calculated your guesses. I started by taking that top-down photo and counting the beans one at a time in Photoshop, marking each bean with a dot after I counted it. I counted 298.

That was the easy part. The hard part was trying to figure out how many layers of 298 there were.

The problem with that is that the pile isn't the same height. The pile was the highest in the middle and kind of went sloping down the sides like a mountain. The way I did it was by using the can in the one picture. I measured the length of the can, and the height of the can where the highest jelly beans were. I then measured a real can, and I used the ratio to figure out the real height of where the jelly beans were. Then I measured the length of the bowl in the picture, and I had the height of the bowl in the picture, and my projected real height, so I was able to find the length. I then did the same thing for the width, but it took another picture to do that too. I then found the average volume of a jelly bean online. I calculated the volume of the bowl according to how much of it that the jelly beans occupied, based on what I saw..and then I took that over the avg volume of a jelly bean to find the amount. I got 726.8, but I lowered it to 715 because of the spaces inbetween the beans..but it wasn't as accurate as I hoped.

It kind of looks like Happydude just made a good guess, since his number is very simple. I mean, obviously Neo said that it is more common for people to underestimate the number, which happened, so Happydude probably guessed in the high 700s due to that. Then..he chose a fun number, 777. That's my assumption.
manasecret
07-15-2006, 12:38 AM
Yeah, I was worried about the sloping problem at first. But you can just take the average of the height of the mound, somewhere in the middle between the apex and the sides. It wouldn't be exactly right, but I figured I didn't have to be exactly right because chances were no one would get really close -- I'd either be pretty close or way off. And I was right, if I had more time maybe I would have guessed three layers and would've won.

I meant to use the can as a height reference. But I got distracted playing a game and ran out of time..
KillerGremlin
07-15-2006, 12:56 AM
I was upper thousands, haha, that was an eye estimate, looks like a lot more. I got two answers and just averaged them, kinda weird. It's a lot harder when you don't have a picture and it all has to be done with relative items.
Typhoid
07-15-2006, 03:27 AM
I think I picked 630-something.

Or something.

Anyways, congrats, you bastard. ;) :p
Happydude
07-15-2006, 09:21 PM
thank you guys...at first i counted only 10 beans and saw how much room they took up, i then went to see how much room thoes 10 beans took up and counted the top layer of beans...then seeing the bowl's height figured that only 3-4 layers of beans could go there so i multiplied and got like 740 something but i just raised the number to lucky 7s :)


edit: oh and i'll have clue #7 please :p